In August, for the second consecutive month, Canadian real GDP was largely unchanged. A surge in sales of machinery, equipment, and supplies led to a 2.3 per cent increase in the Wholesale trade sector. Meanwhile, oil & gas extraction rose 1 per cent on higher extractions in Western Canada while mining and quarrying rose 4.2 per cent. Manufacturing, on the other hand, fell 0.6 per cent, declining for the third consecutive month. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 3.8 per cent as sales softened over the late summer. Overall, Canadian real GDP is now 3.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was again largely unchanged in the Canadian economy in September. 

With a flat August GDP number and September's preliminary estimate also flat, the Canadian economy is expected to have been largely unchanged since February, despite rapid population growth. Indeed, with the preliminary estimate for September, annualized third-quarter GDP is expected to contract 0.1 per cent, following a 0.2 per cent contraction in the second quarter. This would technically imply that the Canadian economy is in a shallow recession. Despite still too-hot inflation numbers, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 5 per cent last week, giving the prior 10 rate hikes time to work through the economy. Given signs of weak growth and cooling labour markets, financial markets no longer anticipate additional rate hikes this cycle.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 4 per cent in August. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 3.7 per cent year-over-year in September. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, the same increase as August, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 31 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 7 per cent). Grocery prices were up 5.8 per cent year over year in September, down from 6.9 per cent in August and 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.2 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

Price appreciation took a breather last month, bucking expectations and slowing in September. While shelter inflation continued to show high price growth, food inflation has softened significantly since the start of the year, falling by nearly half from over 10 per cent in January. While still stubbornly high, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, moderated in September. Amid weakening labour markets and flat GDP growth, this unexpectedly cool inflation report offers hope that the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten as much as expected, and bond yields fell following the release. Markets now put the majority odds on the bank holding rates steady for the remainder of the year. 

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Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 270,466 units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 9 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 2 per cent from last month to 56,880 units, while multi-family and others rose 10 per cent to 213,585 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell 18 per cent from last month to 40,493 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 10 per cent m/m to 5,621 units while multi-family starts fell 21 per cent to 31,409 units. Starts in the province were 25 per cent below the levels from September 2022. Starts declined by 5.3k in Vancouver and by 5.4k in Victoria while rising by 780 units in Kelowna from last month. In Abbotsford, starts were unchanged. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 3.5 per cent to 51,108 SAAR.

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Canadian employment rose by 64,000 (0.3 per cent) in September. The Canadian unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 per cent, now unchanged for three consecutive months. Average hourly wages rose 5 per cent year-over-year to $34.01 in September, while total hours worked were up 2.6 per cent from September of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.9 per cent to 2.81 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 2 per cent to 1.61 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5.4 per cent in BC, up from 5.2 per cent in August, while remaining unchanged at 5.8 per cent in Metro Vancouver.

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The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,203,300. This represents a 0.4% decrease from August 2023 and a 4.4% increase from September 2022.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.1% from Aug 2023 and increased 5.8% from Sep 2022.

- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 0.5% from Aug 2023 and increased 5.3% from Sep 2022.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.2% from Aug 2023 and increased 5.8% from Sep 2022.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian retail sales increased 0.3 per cent in July to $66.1 billion, led by increases at food and beverage retailers (+1.3 per cent). Excluding volatile items, sales were up 1.3 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales declined 0.2 per cent in July. Retail e-commerce trade rose by 2.4 per cent to $4 billion in July, amounting to 6 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC rose 1.4 per cent in July. BC retail sales are up 1.2 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 2 per cent from last month and 1.9 per cent from July of 2022.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from 3.3 per cent in July. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.1 per cent year-over-year in August, the same rate as July. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, up from 5.1 per cent in July, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 30.9 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 6.5 per cent). Grocery prices were up 6.9 per cent year over year in August, down from 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year.

The annual change in CPI continued rising in August as gasoline base year effects ended (the year-over-year change in gasoline prices was positive for the first time since January). Although food price inflation continued to gradually ease, shelter and rent inflation rates rose from July. Moreover, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained stubbornly high; all three measures were flat or rose in August. With softening labour markets and a flat preliminary July GDP estimate following a small contraction in June, the Bank of Canada opted not to raise rates again in September. However, bond yields jumped following the unexpectedly hot August CPI release, suggesting markets think the Bank could change course again. Guiding inflation back down to 2 per cent was sure to be a bumpy ride and the possibility of another rate hike at the next meeting on October 25th or before the end of the year appears to be still on the table.

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Canadian housing starts fell 1 per cent to 252,787 units in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 6 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 2 per cent to 55,665 units, while multi-family and others fell 2 per cent to 197,121 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts were unchanged in August at 50,687 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 34 per cent m/m to 6,314 units while multi-family starts fell 4 per cent to 41,115 units. Starts in the province were 4 per cent above the levels from August 2022. Starts declined by 4.2k in Vancouver and rose by 2.6k in Victoria and 0.2k in Kelowna, while remaining unchanged in Abbotsford from the previous month. The 6-month moving average trend in BC rose by 4.1 per cent to 53,512 SAAR.

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Canadian employment rose by 40,000 (0.2 per cent) in August. The Canadian unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 per cent, pausing after having risen three prior consecutive months. Average hourly wages rose 4.9 per cent year-over-year to $33.47 in August, while total hours worked were up 2.6 per cent from August of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.4 per cent to 2.79 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.6 per cent to 1.58 million. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2 per cent in BC, down from 5.4 per cent in July, while falling to 5.8 per cent in Metro Vancouver. 

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The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,208,400. This represents a 0.2% decrease from July 2023 and a 2.5% increase from August 2022.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 0.3% from July 2023 and increased 3.3% from Aug 2022.

- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 0.2% from July 2023 and increased 3.9% from Aug 2022.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.1% from July 2023 and increased 4.4% from Aug 2022.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian retail sales increased 0.1 per cent in June to $65.9 billion, led by sales by motor vehicles and parts dealers. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.9 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales declined 0.2 per cent in June. Retail e-commerce trade rose by 1.1 per cent to $3.7 billion in June, amounting to 5.7 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC fell 4.8 per cent in June following a very strong May number. BC retail sales are down 1.7 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 3.1 per cent from last month and 2.2 per cent from June of 2022.

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,103 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in July 2023, an increase of 25.9 per cent from July 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $967,948, up 5.6 per cent compared to July 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $6.9 billion, representing a 33 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“Home sales are up significantly since this time last year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “That said, there are signs that the most recent Bank of Canada rate increases are slowing activity as mortgage rates climb to their highest levels in over a decade.”

Active listings in the province were flat compared with July 2022, at just over 31,000 total listings and were up for the second consecutive month on a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, as new listings return to more normal levels and sales moderate. 

Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 20.9 per cent to $46.3 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 16.3 per cent to 47,508 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was down 5.4 per cent to $975,232. 

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Canadian employment remained essentially unchanged at 20.17 million in July. The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 5.5 per cent from 5.4 per cent in June, rising for the third consecutive month. Total hours worked were up 2.1 per cent year over year, while average hourly wages were up 5 per cent from July of last year.

Employment in BC was also little changed in July holding steady at 2.79 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.2 per cent to 1.57 million. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 per cent in BC, down from 5.6 per cent in June, while rising to 6 per cent in Metro Vancouver.

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The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,210,700. This represents a 0.6% increase from June 2023 and a 0.5% decrease from July 2022.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 1.1% from June 2023 and increased 0.6% from July 2022.

- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 0.5% from June 2023 and increased 1.2% from July 2022.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 0.6% from June 2023 and increased 2.6% from July 2022.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP rose 0.3 per cent from the prior month in May, following a 0.1 per cent increase in April. Goods-producing sectors of the economy declined 0.3 per cent while services-producing sectors rose 0.5 per cent. Effected by forest fires, Canada's energy sector declined 2.1 per cent in May. Construction activity contracted 0.8 per cent, driven primarily by lower residential building construction. Offices of real estate agents and brokers rose 7.6 per cent, led by higher home reselling activity in Canada's major cities. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy declined 0.2 percent in June.

The headline GDP figure was solid in May as the ending of the federal worker's strike boosted growth, despite rising interest rates and wildfires dragging on the economy. While growth in May came in at 0.3 per cent, the preliminary estimate of a slowdown in June suggests an easing of growth in the second quarter of 2023, estimated at 1 per cent on an annualized basis. So far in 2023, the Canadian economy has managed to avoid a significant slowdown or recession, but a further slowing of GDP and labour markets is widely expected in the second half of the year. The softening in GDP and inflation in recent months may provide support for a slowing or pause in rate hikes going forward, but the Bank will be watching closely to ensure inflation continues easing into the fall. 

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Canadian retail sales increased 0.2 per cent in May to $66 billion, led by sales of motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverage. However, excluding volatile items like car sales, retail sales were essentially unchanged month-over-month. In BC, retail sales jumped 2.7 per cent, rising for a third consecutive month and were up 1.9 per compared to 1-year ago. 

Although BC retail spending has ticked higher in recent months, overall Canadian retail sales were up just 0.5 per cent compared to this time last year and preliminary estimates for June show flat sales. This could signal that consumer spending is finally slowing down following a year of aggressive tightening by the Bank of Canada. 

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