Steve Flynn  RE/MAX Crest Realty- Burnaby 

Cell: 604.785.3977 |

Categories
RSS

Canadian real GDP decreased 11.6 per cent on a monthly basis in April, reflecting the first full month of measures put in place to halt the spread of COVID-19.  April's decline follows a 7.5 per cent contraction in March.  April's decline was the largest monthly decline in GDP since the series started to be recorded in 1961. The Canadian economy is now 18 per cent below its February, pre-COVID-19 level.

While the decline in April was unprecedented, there is some potential good news in this morning's GDP report.  Statistics Canada indicates that its preliminary estimate for May shows real GDP rising 3 per cent, which could signal the start of an economic recovery. Signs of that recovery can already be seen in housing markets, with home sales rising sharply across many markets in May and June.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales fell by a staggering 26% in April to $35 billion. The largest drop since the data became available in 1991. About one-third of retailers were closed in April, while in the clothing subsector it was 70%. Sales were down in all subsectors for the first time since 1993, led by auto dealers (-44%), gas stations (-32%), and food and beverage stores (-13%). 

Sales were down in all provinces for the second consecutive month in April, leading the decline were Ontario (-33%) and Quebec (-28%). In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were down by 21% at $5.6 billion, while Vancouver sales were down by 24%. All subsectors were hit hard with the largest monthly declines reported in clothing (-67%), sporting/hobby (-50%), furniture stores (-47%), and at gas stations (-35%). The only increase was at building material and garden equipment stores (4%).

The shutdown of physical stores caused many retailers to shift or expand their online presence. E-commerce sales were up by 120% in April year-over-year at $3.4 billion. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, e-commerce in April went from accounting for 5% of total retail to almost 10%. This excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers.  


Advance estimates provided by Statistics Canada for May indicates retail sales increased by 19%. This reflects the gradual reopening of some provinces and pent up demand. However, the magnitude and speed of what could possibly be the start of a retail recovery will depend on consumers' willingness to venture out, and on how quickly individuals can return to work/have their work hours increased.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4 per cent in May year-over-year. This was the second consecutive month of decline in the CPI since the summer of 2009. Transportation prices were the main drag on inflation due to lower gas prices compared to the same time last year. Rents also declined for the second consecutive month, as physical distancing measures and high unemployment dampened demand, while the conversion of short-term rentals to long-term rentals increased supply. Mortgage interest costs also declined as banks lowered rates in tandem with falling bond yields and a lower Bank of Canada policy rate.


In contrast, food prices continued to increase in May (3.1%) due to beef plant closures related to COVID-19 and higher import prices from a weaker Canadian dollar. Excluding gas prices, the CPI rose 0.7%, the smallest increase since January 2013. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation fell 0.1 percentage points, averaging 1.7 per cent in May. 

Regionally, the CPI was negative in all provinces except for Alberta. In BC, CPI fell by 0.2 per cent in May year-over-year, following a flat showing in the previous month. Gas prices (-31%) were the main contributor to the year-over-year decline, while food prices (3.9%) saw the largest increase among the components.

The new Bank of Canada governor, Tiff Macklem, noted yesterday that the CPI uses a fixed-weight basket of goods, but spending patterns have drastically changed due to COVID-19. To adjust for this change, the Bank and Statistics Canada are developing a CPI measure that will better reflect present-day spending patterns, which will likely show stronger downward pressure on prices than what is currently being reported. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Vancouver, BC – June 16, 2020. 


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,518 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2020, a decline of 45.2 per cent from May 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $728,898, a 3.2 per cent increase from $706,394 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in May was $3.3 billion, a 43.5 per cent decrease over 2019.

“There were encouraging signs of recovery in May,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While activity is still far below normal, both sales and listings are up significantly from April’s lows.”

New listings activity started to normalize around the first week of May, reversing a slide in total active listings. However, active listings are still down close to 24 per cent year-over-year and are more than 10,000 listings below where they would normally be in the spring months.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 6 per cent to $18.6 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were down 14.2 per cent to 24,695 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 9.6 per cent to $753,155. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Vancouver, BC – June 10, 2020.


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to approximately 61,000 units this year, after recording 77,347 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 45.3 per cent to 88,500 units in 2021.  

“The bright outlook for 2020 home sales has been upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, as the economy “re-opens” and measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are gradually eased, we expect home sales will start to rebound, aided by record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand.”  

The impact of the current pandemic and associated recession on prices is largely determined by the reaction of supply. Given the unusual nature of COVID-19, the supply of listings for sale has declined for at least the first few months of the pandemic. A muted rise in for-sale inventory may translate to home prices remaining relatively firm in 2020. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 1.8 per cent and to increase a further 5.6 per cent in 2021. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Canadian housing starts rebounded by 16.2% m/m to 193,453 units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Notably, Quebec was not included in last month's numbers, as the province shut down its construction sector due to the pandemic. Outside of Quebec, housing starts decreased in May. The trend in national housing starts fell to an average of 197,000 units SAAR over the past six months. 

In BC, housing starts rose by 29% m/m to 38,043 units SAAR, following a 14% fall in the previous month. The increase was entirely driven by multi-units (42%), while singles decreased (-5%). Although housing starts in BC have been trending downwards since last summer, they are still not at levels seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis. Housing starts have shown resilience during the pandemic and in the near future will depend on demand as unemployment levels remain elevated. Meanwhile, building permits for April increased by 16.4% in the province, returning the value of multi-units to more normal levels.  

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

- Housing starts in Vancouver were up by 65% m/m in May to 24,965 units SAAR, driven entirely by multi-units (85%), while singles were down (-13%). Compared to last year in May, housing starts were down by 41%.  

- In Victoria, housing starts were down by 45% m/m to 3,053 units SAAR, which follows last month's strong showing of 5,562 units. Compared to a year ago in May, housing starts were up by 32%.  

- In Kelowna, housing starts increased by 208% m/m to 1,794, following a very weak 583 units in the previous month. Starts were up by 75% in the region compared to the same time last year. 

- Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were up by 7% at 500 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was down by 72%.  




Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.





Read

Canadian employment grew by 290,000 jobs in May (1.8%, m/m), representing about 10 per cent of the jobs lost since the pandemic was declared. The number of workers who had their hours reduced also decreased by almost 9 per cent. The national unemployment rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 13.7 per cent from the previous month, as more individuals started looking for work in May. Three-quarters of the gains in May were in full-time work (219,000), while although the number of self-employed workers held steady, their hours worked continue to be reduced significantly. 

Regionally, the distribution of gains was consistent with re-opening measures across the country, as Quebec represented almost 80 per cent of the gains with 230,900 jobs. With the exception of Ontario (-64.5k), all provinces reported employment gains. The goods-producing sub-sectors such as construction and manufacturing reported a stronger rebound in May than in the services-producing sector. This meant that men saw a faster increase in employment than women, as men account for a larger share of employment in goods-producing industries. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by -13.5% (-2.6 million).   

Meanwhile, employment in BC grew by 43,300 jobs (2%, m/m) in May. However, the provincial unemployment rate grew by 1.9 percentage points to 13.4, as more individuals started looking for work. Almost all of the employment increase was in the services-producing sector, led by accommodation and food services (12.4k), educational services (11.9k) and retail (11.8k). This is consistent with the province's first phase of reopening announced on May 6, which includes lifting the restrictions on non-essential services such as retail, restaurants, non-medical health services, and some schools. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 15.1% (-390k) jobs. 

This was a good news report, as it appears we are on the path to a slow recovery. That being said, any continued employment gains will depend on consumers' demand for goods and services, which is expected to be hampered by the still 350,000 unemployed individuals in BC since February. Also, the rate of people returning to work will depend on their willingness to do so given ongoing health concerns.




Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


 
Read

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that incoming data seems to signal that the impact of COVID-19 on the economy has peaked, though there remains significant uncertainty regarding the outlook. The Bank further commented that the Canadian economy appears to have avoided the most severe scenario the Bank had previously presented as a possible outcome of COVID-19, though it does expect a 10-20 per cent decline in the level of GDP in the second quarter.  However, positive growth is expected to resume in the third quarter.

Like the Bank, BCREA is projecting that the Canadian, and BC economy will start to recover in the third quarter.  Positive signs of recovery are emerging in the housing market, with sales and listings activity improving from April lows.  Actions by the Bank of Canada have helped ease rising once risk premiums, leading to 5-year mortgage rates falling to near record lows.  Those low rates, along with building pent-up demand should lead to a healthy recovery in home sales over the next 12 months.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read

Metro Vancouver* home prices remain steady, buyers and sellers become more comfortable operating in today’s market.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the MLS® Home Price Index1 composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver today is $1,028,400. This is virtually unchanged from April 2020, a 1.4 per cent increase over the last three months, and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to May 2019.

 

"Home prices have been stable during the COVID-19 period," Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair said. "While we’re seeing a variety of long-term projections for the market, it's critical to understand the facts and trends as they emerge."

 

Residential home sales in the region totalled 1,485 in May 2020, a 43.7 per cent decrease from the 2,638 sales recorded in May 2019 and a 33.9 per cent increase from the 1,109 homes sold in April 2020. Last month’s sales were 54.4 per cent below the 10-year May sales average.

 

"Home sale and listing activity is down compared to typical, long-term levels and up compared to the activity we saw in April 2020," Gerber said. "Home buyers and sellers are adapting today, becoming more comfortable operating with the physical distancing requirements that are in place in the market." 

 

There were 3,684 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in May 2020. This represents a 37.1 per cent decrease compared to the 5,861 homes listed in May 2019 and a 59.3 per cent increase compared to April 2020 when 2,313 homes were listed. 

 

"Home buyers and sellers are working with their REALTORS® to use new tools to complete different stages of the real estate transaction virtually," Gerber said. “When in-person interactions are necessary, we’re working with our clients to follow the physical distancing requirements set out by WorkSafeBC and the provincial health officer." 

 

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,927, a 32.4 per cent decrease compared to May 2019 (14,685) and a 5.7 per cent increase compared to April 2020 (9,389). For all housing types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for May 2020 is 15 per cent. By housing type, the ratio is 13.5 per cent for detached homes, 18.9 per cent for townhomes, and 14.8 per cent for apartments.

 

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


Sales of detached homes in May 2020 reached 534, a 41.5 per cent decrease from the 913 detached sales recorded in May 2019. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,456,700. This is a 0.3 per cent increase from April 2020, a 2.2 per cent increase over the past three months, and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to May 2019.

 

Sales of apartment homes reached 653 in May 2020, a 47.6 per cent decrease compared to the 1,246 sales in May 2019. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $686,500. This is a 0.3 per cent decrease from April 2020, a 0.9 per cent increase over the past three months, and a three per cent increase compared to May 2019.

 

Attached home sales in May 2020 totalled 298, a 37.8 per cent decrease compared to the 479 sales in May 2019. The benchmark price of an attached home is $792,700. This is a 0.2 per cent increase from April 2020, a 1.2 per cent increase over the past three months, and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to May 2019.



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


Read
Categories:   Abbotsford West, Abbotsford Real Estate | Brentwood Park, Burnaby North Real Estate | Brighouse, Richmond Real Estate | Burnaby | Burnaby Real Estate | Burnaby South Real Estate | Cape Horn, Coquitlam Real Estate | Cariboo, Burnaby North Real Estate | Central BN, Burnaby North Real Estate | Central Coquitlam, Coquitlam | Central Coquitlam, Coquitlam Real Estate | Champlain Heights, Vancouver East | Champlain Heights, Vancouver East Real Estate | Cloverdale BC, Cloverdale Real Estate | Cloverdale BC, Surrey Real Estate | Cloverdale Real Estate | Coal Harbour, Vancouver West Real Estate | Coaquitlam | College Park PM, Port Moody Real Estate | Collingwood VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | Coquitlam | Coquitlam West, Coquitlam Real Estate | Downtown NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Downtown VW, Vancouver West | Downtown VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Eagleridge, Coquitlam Real Estate | False Creek North, Vancouver West | Fraserview NW, New Westminster | Fraserview NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Fraserview VE, Vancouver East Real Estate | GlenBrooke North, New Westminster Real Estate | Grandview Surrey, Surrey Real Estate | Harrison Hot Springs Real Estate | Hastings, Vancouver East Real Estate | Highgate, Burnaby South Real Estate | Hockaday, Coquitlam Real Estate | January 2014 Sales in Greater Vancouver | Metrotown, Burnaby South Real Estate | New Horizons, Coquitlam Real Estate | New Westminster Real Estate | Port Moody | Port Moody Real Estate | Quay, New Westminster Real Estate | Queensborough, New Westminster Real Estate | Richmond Real Estate | Riverdale RI, Richmond Real Estate | Riverwood, Port Coquitlam Real Estate | Sapperton, New Westminster Real Estate | Simon Fraser Univer., Burnaby North Real Estate | Surrey | The Heights NW, New Westminster | The Heights NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Tsawwassen Central, Tsawwassen Real Estate | Uptown NW, New Westminster Real Estate | Uptown, New Westminster Real Estate | Vancouver | Vancouver East Real Estate | Videocast of January 2014 sales | Walnut Grove, Langley Real Estate | West Central, Maple Ridge Real Estate | West End VW, Vancouver West Real Estate | Whalley, North Surrey Real Estate | Whalley, Surrey Real Estate | Willoughby Heights, Langley Real Estate
Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.