The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1 per cent in the 12-months to September, a slowing from 1.3 per cent in August.  Inflation continues to be held lower by energy prices with gasoline prices falling 19 per cent year-over-year. Inflation measured by the Bank of Canada's core CPI index, which excludes fuel, food and other volatile components, registered 2.1 per cent for a second consecutive month.This is the 14th consecutive month that core inflation has been above the Bank's 2 per cent inflation target. Inflation in BC was up 1.3 per cent in the 12-months to September and is tracking at just 0.9 per cent for all of 2015.  

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation is evolving in line with the Bank's outlook, though total inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target range.  Removing the impact of low oil prices and other temporary factors, the Bank judges that the underlying trend in inflation is currently 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.  The negative impact of low commodity prices is still being felt in the Canadian economy, prompting the Bank to trim its growth projection for 2015 to just 1 per cent, as well as revising down its forecast for real GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 to 2 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. 

Growth in the Canadian economy appears to be firming in the second half of the year. Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at 2.5 per cent on an annual basis and core inflation continues to hover near the Bank's target of 2 per cent. Moreover, the outlook for growth next year may be somewhat brighter than the Bank currently forecasts given the spending intentions of the new Canadian government.  If so, some of the burden on monetary policy will be lifted, making further rate cuts less likely. We expect that the Bank will remain on hold through the rest of 2015 and much of 2016, with a chance of tighter monetary policy toward the end of next year. 

Vancouver, BC – October 14, 2015.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,553 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, up 12 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.2 billion, up 18 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $605,258, up 5.3 per cent from September 2014.

“Strong consumer demand has pulled down the inventory of homes for sale to its lowest level in eight years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Market conditions are favouring home sellers in some board areas, while contributing to relative balance between buyers and sellers in others.”

There was a 5 month supply of residential inventory province wide in September. A balanced market typically exhibits a 5-8 month supply of homes for sale. The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 33.8 per cent to $49.5 billion, when compared with the same period in 2014. Residential unit sales climbed by 21.1 per cent to 79,170 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 10.4 per cent to $624,659.

If you'd like to view a YouTube video from the REBGV highlighting the sales for September 2015 you can find it here:

http://www.rebgv.org/podcasts/september-2015-market-summary

Conditions continue to favour home sellers across *Metro Vancouver’s housing market.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver reached 3,345 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2015. This represents a 14.5 per cent increase compared to the 2,922 sales recorded in September 2014, and a 0.5 per cent decrease compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015. Last month’s sales were 32.9 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month.

“Residential home sales have been trending at 25 to 30 per cent above the ten-year sales average for most of the year. The number of homes listed for sale hasn’t been keeping up with the demand,” Darcy McLeod, REBGV president said. “It’s this dynamic that’s placing upward pressure on home prices, particularly in the detached home market.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 4,846 in September. This represents a 7.9 per cent decline compared to the 5,259 new listings reported in September 2014. The total number of properties listed for sale on the real estate board’s MLS® is 10,805, a 27 per cent decline compared to September 2014 and a 0.8 per cent decline compared to August 2015.

“At no point this year has the number of homes listed for sale exceeded 14,000, which is the first time this has occurred in the region since 2007,” McLeod said. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $722,300. This represents a 13.7 per cent increase compared to September 2014.

The sales-to-active-listings ratio in September was 31 per cent. Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio declines below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches 20 per cent, or higher, in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

Sales of detached properties in September 2015 reached 1,272, an increase of 0.2 per cent from the 1,270 detached sales recorded in September 2014, and a 24.3 per cent increase from the 1,023 units sold in September 2014. The benchmark price for a detached property in Metro Vancouver increased 18.9 per cent from September 2014 to $1,179,700.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,529 in September 2015, an increase of 28.7 per cent compared to the 1,188 sales in September 2014, and an increase of 50.2 per cent compared to the 1,018 sales in September 2013. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased nine per cent from September 2014 to $415,100.

Attached property sales in September 2015 totalled 544, an increase of 17.2 per cent compared to the 464 sales in September 2014, and a 23.1 per cent increase from the 442 attached properties sold in September 2013. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 8.1 per cent between September 2014 and 2015 to $518,600.

 If you would like detailed statistics for a specific kind of property in any REBGV city and/or neigbourhood please contact me and I can easily send to you at your convenience.

*Note: Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.