Steve Flynn  RE/MAX Crest Realty- Burnaby 

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The Canadian economy contracted 1.6 per cent in the second quarter, the largest decline since the second quarter of 2009. The impact of Alberta wildfires on oil production and other other industries was the primary cause of negative growth. Excluding the large decline in crude petroleum output, real GDP increased 1.2 per cent. 

Very strong consumption growth in the second quarter and a 0.6 per cent rebound in growth in June means that the hand-off to third quarter growth should be very strong. We expect Canadian economic growth will rebound sharply in the third and fourth quarter as oil production normalizes and the federal government's uptick in expenditures and tax credits impacts the economy. The Canadian economy is forecast to expand at an average of 2.5 per cent in the second half of 2016 and into 2017.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Vancouver, BC – August 31, 2016.

 

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 1.7 index points in the second quarter of 2016, propelled higher by strong growth in the BC economy.The CLI index rose to a new high of 122.2, up 2.2 per cent compared to the second quarter of 2015.

 

“The recent uptrend in the CLI is reflective of a strong underlying economy and accelerated employment growth,” said BCREA Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The CLI was further boosted by a rebound in financial markets that were previously dragging the index lower.“

 

All components of the CLI contributed positively to the index in the second quarter with strong economic growth, and robust consumer spending in particular, acting as the primary driver. A rising CLI over the first half of 2016 pulled the underlying index trend higher following several quarters of flat growth. That rising trend points to a higher uptick in the pace of commercial real estate activity over the next two to four months.

 

 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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BCREA 2016 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update


Vancouver, BC – August 25, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2016 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 10.4 per cent to a record 113,000 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Housing demand is expected to moderate next year, with home sales declining nearly 8 per cent to 104,400 units. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales.

 

"The introduction of a 15 per cent tax on foreign national home buyers in Metro Vancouver is expected to accelerate a moderating trend in the market that began earlier in the year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, other regions of the province are performing above expectations and at the provincial level, largely offsetting Metro Vancouver's deceleration."

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 11 per cent to $706,900 this year and a further 5.2 per cent to $743,700 in 2017.

 

"While the cyclical nature of housing markets can exact a harsh toll on affordability in the short term, there is some relief for beleaguered home buyers on the horizon, added Muir. Housing starts in the province are expected to reach near record levels this year, and the highest amount since 1993. In Metro Vancouver, a record number of homes are now under construction. "A moderation in housing demand combined with a rising number of both new and resale homes on the market is expected to create more balance and less upward pressure on home prices."

 

 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


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Vancouver, BC – August 11, 2016


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 9,900 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, down 3.4 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.57 billion in July, up 5.4 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 9.1 per cent year-over-year, to $663,411.

 

“Housing demand has moderated in many regions of the province, after setting records earlier in the year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The less frenetic pace of home sales will likely provide a much needed boost to the inventory of homes for sale. The rate of home price appreciation is also expected to slow from the unsustainable level exhibited this spring.“

 

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 45.5 per cent to $56.5 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 25 per cent to 77,261 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 16.4 per cent to $731,189.

 

 

 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian housing starts declined 9 per cent in July to 198,847 total units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) following a jump in construction activity in June.  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts moved slightly higher to just over 201,000 units, slightly above average annual growth in Canadian households. 


Housing starts in BC also declined, but were still a very robust 41,050 SAAR. On a year-over-year basis, new home construction was up 14 per cent in July due to a 25 per cent jump in single detached starts and an 11 per cent rise in multiple units. Through the first seven months of the year, BC housing starts are up 37 per cent compared to 2015. 

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC, total starts in the Vancouver CMA were down 9 per cent year-over-year in July, dragged down by a 14 per cent decline in multiple unit starts. Single-detached starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 15 per cent. In the Victoria CMA, housing starts continue to climb, more than doubling year-over-year on strong growth in new multiple unit starts.


New home construction in the Kelowna CMA rose 9 per cent as a result of 13 per cent growth in multiple unit starts. Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 25 per cent year-over-year, as a surge in single unit construction outweighed a decline in multiple units.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Home sales move off of record-breaking pace in July.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 3,226 in July 2016, a decrease of 18.9 per cent from the 3,978 sales recorded in July 2015 and a decrease of 26.7 per cent compared to June 2016 when 4,400 homes sold. 

This is the first time since January that home sales in the region have registered below 4,000 in a month. “After several months of record-breaking sales activity, home buyer demand returned to more historically normal levels in July,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president said. 

Last month’s sales were 6.5 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month. “Home sale activity showed some moderating signs in late June and this carried into July,” Morrison said. “We’ll wait and watch over the next few months to see if this marks the return of more normal market trends.” 

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 5,241 in July 2016. This represents a 2.5 per cent increase compared to the 5,112 units listed in July 2015 and a 10.8 per cent decrease compared to June 2016 when 5,875 properties were listed. The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,351, a 27.4 per cent decline compared to July 2015 (11,505) and a 6.9 per cent increase compared to June 2016 (7,812). 

The sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2016 is 38.6 per cent. Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period of time.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $930,400. This represents a 32.6 per cent increase compared to July 2015.

Sales of detached properties in July 2016 reached 1,077, a decrease of 30.9 per cent from the 1,559 detached sales recorded in July 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 38 per cent from July 2015 to $1,578,300.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,602 in July 2016, a decrease of 7.3 per cent compared to the 1,729 sales in July 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 27.4 per cent from July 2015 to $510,600.

Attached property sales in July 2016 totalled 547, a decrease of 20.7 per cent compared to the 690 sales in July 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 29.4 per cent from July 2015 to $669,000.


Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.


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The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.