The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank cited that inflation and economic growth were evolving roughly in-line with expectations, though household vulnerability to economic shocks has moved higher due to high debt burdens.

The Canadian economy got off to a very strong start and will likely end up recording real GDP growth above 3 per cent for the first quarter of the year. However, much of that growth was front loaded and more recent data has been weaker. Growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter as a result of the wildfires in Alberta and their impact on oil production before rebounding in the third quarter and ramping up to end the year. Slower growth through the summer months will keep the Bank on the sidelines though a probable tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve as early as June may add some upward pressure to Canadian long-term interest rates.  

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Vancouver, BC – May 13, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 12,969 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, up 30.3 per cent from the same month last year. Home sales last month beat March’s record of 12,560 units. Total sales dollar volume was $9.64 billion in April, up 52.7 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 17.2 per cent year-over-year, to $743,640.

“Housing demand is exceptionally strong across the southern regions of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Consumers appear to be particularly active in the Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and the Thompson/Okanagan regions.“

“Strong employment growth is helping underpin consumer confidence,” added Muir. The BC economy employed more than 78,000 additional workers during the first four months of the year, an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 64.3 per cent to $31.2 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 36.2 per cent to 28,028 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 20.6 per cent to $761,860.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The total value of Canadian building permits declined 7 per cent on a monthly basis in March following a 15 per cent increase in February. The drop in permits was the result of lower permit activity in the commercial sector in Alberta, Ontario and BC. 

In BC, total permit activity declined 5 per cent from February to March but remained above $1 billion for the fifth consecutive month. On a year-over-year basis, the dollar value of building permits in the province was 10 per cent lower than March 2015. Non-residential permits accounted for all of the decline, falling 33 per cent on a monthly basis and 37 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits rose 8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 2.6 per cent year-over-year. 

Construction intentions were mixed in BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 31.5 cent on a monthly basis and 11 per cent higher year-over-year.  In the Kelowna CMA, permits fell 16 per cent from February and were 34 per cent lower year-over-year. In the Vancouver CMA, permits increased 6 per cent on a monthly basis and were down 12 per cent year-over-year.  In the Victoria CMA, permit activity was down 29 per cent on a monthly basis but was up 41 per cent compared to March 2015.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Last month was the highest selling April on record for Metro Vancouver.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 4,781 in April 2016, an increase of 14.4 per cent from the 4,179 sales recorded in April 2015 and a decrease of 7.6 per cent compared to March 2016 when 5,173 homes sold. April sales were 41.7 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month.

“Home buyer competition remains intense across the region,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president said. “Whether you’re a home buyer or seller, it’s important to work with your local Realtor to get the information you need and to develop a strategy that will help you navigate today’s market.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 6,127 in April 2016. This represents an increase of 3.9 per cent compared to the 5,897 units listed in April 2015 and a 2.4 per cent decline compared to March 2016 when 6,278 properties were listed. "While we’re seeing more homes listed for sale in recent months, supply is still chasing this unprecedented surge of demand in our marketplace," Morrison said.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 7,550, a 39.3 per cent decline compared to April 2015 (12,436) and a 2.6 per cent increase compared to March 2016 (7,358).  The sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2016 is 63.3 per cent. This is indicative of a seller’s market.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it reaches the 20 to 22 per cent range in a particular community for a sustained period of time.  The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $844,800. This represents a 25.3 per cent increase compared to April 2015. 

Sales of detached properties in April 2016 reached 1,979, an increase of 9 per cent from the 1,815 detached sales recorded in April 2015. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 30.1 per cent from April 2015 to $1,403,200.

Sales of apartment properties reached 2,107 in April 2016, an increase of 33.4 per cent compared to the 1,579 sales in April 2015.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 20.6 per cent from April 2015 to $475,000.

Attached property sales in April 2016 totalled 695, a decrease of 11.5 per cent compared to the 785 sales in April 2015. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 22.1 per cent from April 2015 to $608,600.

*Note: Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.