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Canadian Inflation (June 2023) - July 18, 2023


Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from 3.4 per cent in May. While declines occurred in several categories, the largest contribution was from lower gasoline prices compared to the same month last year (-21.6 per cent). Ignoring gasoline, year-over-year inflation would have been 4 per cent in June. Shelter costs were up 4.8 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 30.1 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 5.8 per cent from June 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was down 0.7 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9.1 per cent year over year. Month over month, CPI rose 0.1 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent year-over-year.

The CPI continued to cool in June, with year-over-year prices rising at the slowest rate since March 2021, and now within the Bank of Canada's target of 1 to 3 per cent. Much lower gasoline prices compared to the same time last year are doing much of this work, but recovering supply chains also contributed, with furniture and household appliances both on average cheaper than the same time last year. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, are trending downwards and are now mostly below 4 per cent year-over-year. CPI is being pulled down by energy costs, household operations and furnishings, and clothing costs. In the other direction, food, shelter, and mortgage costs are dragging the CPI upwards. Taken together, that this month's headline inflation figure is within the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent target is excellent news and provides support for the Bank to ease off rate tightening going forward. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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British Columbia's June MLS sales


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,740 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in June 2023, an increase of 21.9 per cent from June 2022. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $991,648, up 4.7 per cent compared to June 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $8.7 billion, representing a 27.6 per cent increase from the same time last year.


“June home sales continued to outperform expectations, following a very strong rebound in May,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, rising interest rates will likely dampen home sales activity in coming months.”

Active listings in the province were above 30,000 units for the first time since September 2022, but were still down 1.2 per cent compared to this time last year, and essentially flat month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
 
Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 26.1 per cent to $39.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 21.1 per cent to 40,381 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 6.4 per cent to $976,885.


Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has been stronger than expected but is expected slow as higher interest rate work their way through the economy.  On inflation, the Bank cited the recent easing of inflation to 3.4 per cent but also noted that core inflation continues to run a at 3 to 4 per cent pace and has been more persistent than anticipated.  The Bank now forecasts a return to its 2 per cent target in mid-2025 rather than in 2024. 

While inflation has come down significantly in the past year, the economy seems somewhat impervious to the Bank's efforts to slow it down. The labour market continues to add jobs at a robust pace, consumer spending was brisk during the first quarter and the housing market remains unexpectedly strong. Although the impact of rate increases can take time to be felt, we should be seeing some signs of a slowing economy emerge relatively soon. However, the likelihood of an impending recession and a related fall in interest rates now seem to fading, meaning homebuyers and homeowners may need to wait until next year for any mortgage relief. Indeed, 5-year bond yields are now near 4 per cent for the first time since 2007 which has driven 5-year fixed mortgage rates to their highest point this year.  The Bank's statement suggests it may be on pause at 5 per cent, though further rate increases could be on the horizon if the economy continues to out-perform expectations. 


Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Employment (June 2023) - July 9, 2023


Canadian employment rose by 0.3 per cent to 20.17 million in June. The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 5.4 per cent after rising to 5.2 per cent in May. Total hours worked were up 2 per cent year over year, while average hourly wages were up 4.2 per cent from June of last year.

Employment in BC was little changed in June, falling 0.1 per cent to 2.778 million, while falling by 0.3 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.570 million. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.6 per cent in BC, up from 5 per cent in May, while rising to 5.7 per cent in Metro Vancouver.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S June 2023 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,203,000. This represents a 1.3% increase from May 2023 and a 2.4% decrease from June 2022.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 1.9% from May 2023 and decreased 3.2% from June 2022.


- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 1.5% from May 2023 and decreased 1.0% from June 2022.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 0.8% from May 2023 and increased 0.5% from June 2022.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Home prices continue to rise in Metro Vancouver’shousing market to kick off the summer:


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,988 in June 2023, a 21.1 per cent increase from the 2,467 sales recorded in June 2022. This was 8.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,269).


“The market continues to outperform expectations across all segments, but the apartment segment showed the most relative strength in June,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “The benchmark price of apartment homes is almost cresting the peak reached in 2022, while sales of apartments are now above the region’s ten-year seasonal average. This uniquely positions the apartment segment relative to the attached and detached segments where sales remained below the ten-year seasonal averages.”


There were 5,348 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in June 2023. This represents a 1.3 per cent increase compared to the 5,278 homes listed in June 2022. This was 3.1 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,518).


The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,990, a 7.9 per cent decrease compared to June 2022 (10,842) This was 17.4 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (12,091).


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2023 is 31.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 20.9 per cent for detached homes, 38.5 per cent for townhomes, and 39.4 per cent for apartments. Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


“Despite elevated borrowing costs, there continues to be too little resale inventory available relative to the pool of buyers in Metro Vancouver. This is the fundamental reason we continue to see prices increase month over month across all segments,” Lis said. “With the benchmark price for apartments now standing at $767,000, we repeat our call to the provincial government to adjust the $525,000 threshold exempting first-time home buyers from the Property Transfer Tax to better reflect the price of entry-level homes in our region. This is a simple policy adjustment that could help more first-time buyers afford a home right now.” 


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,203,000. This represents a 2.4 per cent decrease over June 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to May 2023.


Sales of detached homes in June 2023 reached 848, a 28.3 per cent increase from the 661 detached sales recorded in June 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,991,300. This represents a 3.2 per cent decrease from June 2022 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to May 2023.


Sales of apartment homes reached 1,573 in June 2023, an 18.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,326 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $767,000. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase from June 2022 and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to May 2023.


Attached home sales in June 2023 totalled 547, a 17.6 per cent increase compared to the 465 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,098,900. This represents a one per cent decrease from June 2022 and a 1.5 per cent increase compared to May 2023.



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (April 2022) - July 2, 2023


Canadian real GDP was flat from the prior month in April, following a 0.1 per cent increase in March. Goods-producing sectors of the economy grew 0.1 per cent while services-producing sectors were flat. Construction activity rose 0.4 per cent as lower residential construction activity was offset by other subsectors, including engineering construction (+1.1 per cent). The real estate and rental leasing sector expanded 0.5 per cent in April as home sales rebounded. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.7 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy expanded 0.4 percent in May.

April's GDP read extends a trend of weak but positive growth since February. The strike of federal workers caused public sector GDP to decline 0.3 per cent in April and contributed to a solid rebound in May, estimated preliminarily at 0.4 per cent. Despite low growth, the economy remains relatively resilient given the headwinds of rising interest rates. Furthermore, given the widespread expectation of an imminent recession for at least the prior two quarters, that growth has been positive in all months of 2023 so far is an unexpectedly cheerful development. But monetary policy works with a long lag, and further slowing of GDP and labour markets are widely expected in the second half of the year. The Bank of Canada's goal is to guide inflation back down to 2 per cent without causing a prolonged contraction in GDP. So far, they have had considerable success, but the Bank will be watching closely to maintain this balance into the fall.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (May 2023) - June 27, 2023


Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, down from 4.4 per cent in March. The decline was mostly driven by lower gasoline prices from this time last year (-18.3 per cent). Month over month, CPI rose 0.4 per cent, in large part due to higher mortgage interest and traveler accommodation costs. Shelter costs were up 4.7 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 29.9 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 5.7 per cent from May 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was down 0.1 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9 per cent year over year, down from 9.1 per cent last month. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.4 per cent year-over-year.

After unexpectedly hot inflation in April, the CPI cooled in May, with year-over-year prices rising at the slowest rate since June 2021. Much lower gasoline prices compared to the same time last year are doing much of this work, but recovering supply chains also contributed, with furniture and household appliances both on average cheaper than the same time last year. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, are trending downwards and are now mostly below 4 per cent year-over-year. Despite this progress, other components of the CPI remain stubbornly high, particularly food and shelter costs. Excluding energy prices, the CPI was up 4.6 per cent from last year, a rate that is still well beyond the Bank's target. In the context of solid GDP growth, a robust labour market, and a rebounding housing market, financial markets expect that the Bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5 per cent at its next meeting on July 12th. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (April 2023) - June 23, 2023


Canadian seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 1.1 per cent in April to $65.9 billion. Sales rose in 8 of 9 subsectors, but the increase was led by higher sales at general merchandise retailers (+3.3 per cent) and food and beverage retailers (+1.5 per cent). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.5 per cent. In volume terms, sales rose 0.3 per cent in April. 

In BC, seasonally adjusted sales rose 0.5 per cent in April. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were down 0.1 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales fell 1.4 per cent month-over-month and were down 1.4 per cent year-over-year.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (May 2023) - June 19th, 2023


Canadian housing starts fell 23 per cent to 202,494 units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 28 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 3 per cent to 55,967 units, while multi-family and others fell 29 per cent to 146,528 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 33 per cent in May to 40,536 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 7 per cent m/m to 6,207 units while multi-family starts fell 39 per cent to 32,010 units. Starts in the province were 3 per cent below the levels from May 2022. Starts were down by 22k in Vancouver, while rising by 0.6k in Victoria, 0.6k in Kelowna, and 1.7k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend fell 2.6 per cent to 49.9k in BC in November. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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I have sold a property at 405 11 ROYAL AVE E in New Westminster

I have sold a property at 405 11 ROYAL AVE E in New Westminster.
Enjoy an outdoor OASIS on your own 430 sq ft rooftop deck! BEAUTIFUL northeast-facing 880 sq ft 2 bed/2 bath unit in Victoria Hill Highrises w/2 parking stalls, 2 lockers & 2 outdoor spaces! Modern finishes throughout incl: granite, stainless steel, eng. h/w flooring & huge washer/dryer! Great strata & 800k in CRF. RESORT-style amenities: party room, gym, o/d pool & hot tub, billiards room, library & 2 guest suites. Victoria Hill is lovely area w/parks, trails, etc, perfect for families or dog-owners. Small grocery store, cafe, sushi & Italian restaurants in the neighbourhood & d/t New West is 15 min walk/5 min bus ride. 2 pets allowed (cats & dogs or 1 of each) & rentals allowed (no AirBnB). Showings start now. Check out virtual tour! OPEN HOUSE: Sat. June 10, 3-5pm, Sun. Jun 11, 2-4pm.
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JUST SOLD: 405-11 Royal Ave east, New Westminster!


Enjoy an outdoor OASIS on your own 430 sq ft rooftop deck! BEAUTIFUL northeast-facing 880 sq ft 2 bed/2 bath unit in Victoria Hill Highrises w/2 parking stalls, 2 lockers & 2 outdoor spaces! Modern finishes throughout incl: granite, stainless steel, eng. h/w flooring & huge washer/dryer! Great strata & 800k in CRF.


RESORT-style amenities: party room, gym, o/d pool & hot tub, billiards room, library & 2 guest suites. Victoria Hill is lovely area w/parks, trails, etc, perfect for families or dog-owners. Small grocery store, cafe, sushi & Italian restaurants in the neighbourhood & d/t New West is 15 min walk/5 min bus ride. 2 pets allowed (cats & dogs or 1 of each) & rentals allowed (no AirBnB).

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I have sold a property at 1708 4888 BRENTWOOD DR in Burnaby

I have sold a property at 1708 4888 BRENTWOOD DR in Burnaby.
FANTASTIC south-facing, 831 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath unit in The Fitzgerald in Brentwood Park w/2 parking stalls! This condo is bright & modern w/granite finishes, laminate flooring & tons of UPDATES incl: popcorn ceiling removal, new paint & lighting throughout, new s/s fridge & dishwasher, new full-sized washer-dryer & new blinds. Pro-active strata & $1.8M in CRF! Fitzgerald has great amenities: party room, gym, o/d hot tub & a meeting room. EXCELLENT location w/Skytrain & Brentwood Park shopping, dining, banks, etc, within 2 blocks. 2 pets allowed (1 dog & 1 cat) & rentals allowed (no short-term). 1 locker. Dynamic neighbourhood undergoing exciting changes - the place to be in Burnaby! OPEN HOUSE: Sat, June 10, 12-2pm.
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JUST SOLD: 1708-4888 Brentwood Drive, Burnaby!


FANTASTIC south-facing, 831 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath unit in The Fitzgerald in Brentwood Park w/2 parking stalls! This condo is bright & modern w/granite finishes, laminate flooring & tons of UPDATES incl: popcorn ceiling removal, new paint & lighting throughout, new s/s fridge & dishwasher, new full-sized washer-dryer & new blinds.


Pro-active strata & 1.8M in CRF! Fitzgerald has great amenities: party room, gym, o/d hot tub area & meeting room. EXCELLENT location w/Skytrain & Brentwood Park shopping, dining, banks, etc, within 2 blocks. 2 pets allowed (1 dog & 1 cat) & rentals allowed (no short-term). 1 locker. Dynamic neighbourhood undergoing exciting changes - the place to be in Burnaby!

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Canadian Employment (May 2023) - June 12, 2023


Canadian employment fell by 0.1 per cent to 20.11 million in May. The Canadian unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent after holding steady at 5 per cent since December. A decline in employment of 77,000 for youths (aged 15 to 24) more than offset a 63,000 rise in employment for middle-aged workers (aged 25 to 54). Total hours worked were up 2.2 per cent year over year, while average hourly wages were up 5.1 per cent from May of last year.

Employment in BC was little changed in May, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.781 million, while rising by 0.7 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.575 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent in BC and fell to 4.9 per cent in Metro Vancouver.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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OPEN HOUSE today, 3 - 5 pm: 405-11 Royal Ave east, New Westminster


Enjoy an outdoor OASIS on your own 430 sq ft rooftop deck! BEAUTIFUL northeast-facing 880 sq ft 2 bed/2 bath unit in Victoria Hill Highrises w/2 parking stalls, 2 lockers & 2 outdoor spaces! Modern finishes throughout incl: granite, stainless steel, eng. h/w flooring & huge washer/dryer! Great strata & 800k in CRF.


RESORT-style amenities: party room, gym, o/d pool & hot tub, billiards room, library & 2 guest suites. Victoria Hill is lovely area w/parks, trails, etc, perfect for families or dog-owners. Small grocery store, cafe, sushi & Italian restaurants in the neighbourhood & d/t New West is 15 min walk/5 min bus ride. 2 pets allowed (cats & dogs or 1 of each) & rentals allowed (no AirBnB).



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OPEN HOUSE today, 12 - 2 pm: 1708-4888 Brentwood Dr, Burnaby

MLS# R2782140


FANTASTIC south-facing, 831 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath unit in The Fitzgerald in Brentwood Park w/2 parking stalls! This condo is bright & modern w/granite finishes, laminate flooring & tons of UPDATES incl: popcorn ceiling removal, new paint & lighting throughout, new s/s fridge & dishwasher, new full-sized washer-dryer & new blinds.


Pro-active strata & $1.8M in CRF! Fitzgerald has great amenities: party room, gym, o/d hot tub & a meeting room. EXCELLENT location w/Skytrain & Brentwood Park shopping, dining, banks, etc, within 2 blocks. 2 pets allowed (1 dog & 1 cat) & rentals allowed (no short-term). 1 locker. Dynamic neighbourhood undergoing exciting changes - the place to be in Burnaby!

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Open House. Open House on Saturday, June 10, 2023 12:00PM - 2:00PM

Please visit our Open House at 1708 4888 BRENTWOOD DR in Burnaby.
Open House on Saturday, June 10, 2023 12:00PM - 2:00PM
FANTASTIC south-facing, 831 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath unit in The Fitzgerald in Brentwood Park w/2 parking stalls! This condo is bright & modern w/granite finishes, laminate flooring & tons of UPDATES incl: popcorn ceiling removal, new paint & lighting throughout, new s/s fridge & dishwasher, new full-sized washer-dryer & new blinds. Pro-active strata & $1.8M in CRF! Fitzgerald has great amenities: party room, gym, o/d hot tub & a meeting room. EXCELLENT location w/Skytrain & Brentwood Park shopping, dining, banks, etc, within 2 blocks. 2 pets allowed (1 dog & 1 cat) & rentals allowed (no short-term). 1 locker. Dynamic neighbourhood undergoing exciting changes - the place to be in Burnaby! OPEN HOUSE: Sat, June 10, 12-2pm.
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The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate this morning by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent. In its statement accompanying the decision, the bank noted that the Canadian economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter and spending in interest rates sensitive sectors, like the housing market, has picked up. On inflation, the Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to 3 per cent by summer, however, monthly inflation continues to trend about two times higher than its 2 per cent target, a circumstance the Bank fears could become persistent without immediate action. 

After signalling a pause in its monetary tightening just a few months ago, the Bank of Canada has already changed course. While inflation has come down significantly, core inflation has been stubbornly trending around 4 per cent, and with home prices already recovering across the country, inflationary pressures are rising.  In the Bank's estimation, interest rates will need to move higher to slow the economy and bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target. The Bank will likely raise its overnight rate at least once more to 5 per cent.  Those expectations are already being priced into 5-year Canadian bond yields, which rose to their highest level since October 2022 following the rate decision. That increase will prompt mortgage lenders to follow suit, likely bringing 5-year fixed mortgage rates back to above 5.5 per cent.   



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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JUST LISTED at $724,900: 405-11 Royal Ave east, New Westminster


Enjoy an outdoor OASIS on your own 400 sq ft rooftop deck! BEAUTIFUL northeast-facing 880 sq ft 2 bed/2 bath unit in Victoria Hill Highrises w/2 parking stalls, 2 lockers & 2 outdoor spaces! Modern finishes throughout incl: granite, stainless steel, eng. h/w flooring & huge washer/dryer! Great strata & 800k in CRF.


RESORT-style amenities: party room, gym, o/d swimming pool & hot tub, billiards room, library & 2 guest suites. Victoria Hill is lovely area w/parks, trails, etc, perfect for families or dog-owners. Small grocery store, cafe, sushi & Italian restaurants in the neighbourhood & d/t New West is 15 min walk/5 min bus ride. 2 pets allowed (1 dog & 1 cat) & rentals allowed (no AirBnB). Showings start now. Check out virtual tour!


OPEN HOUSE: Sat. June 10, 3-5pm, Sun. Jun 11, 2-4pm.

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