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Canadian Retail Sales (May 2024) –July 19th, 2024

Canadian retail sales fell 0.8 per cent to $66.1 billion in May. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in May.

Retail sales in BC were down by 1.3 per cent in May and fell by 1.6 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 1.2 per cent from the prior month and were up 0.9 percent from May 2023.

These figures are indicative of an overall weakening trend in Canadian goods consumption, with retail sales falling during 4 of the last 5 months. Overall, this pattern supports the argument for a second rate cut by the Bank of Canada in July to promote more economic activity.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (June 2024) - July 18th, 2024

Canadian housing starts fell 9 per cent to 241,672 units in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 14 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were up 1 per cent from last month at 52,762 units, while multi-family and others fell 11 per cent to 188,911 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell 12 per cent from last month to 40,808 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 11 per cent to 4,876 units while multi-family starts dropped 15 per cent to 34,085 units. Starts in the province were 38 per cent below the levels from June 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts were up by 5 per cent in Victoria, 54 per cent in Kelowna, and 27 per cent in Abbotsford. Year-to-date starts were down by 18 per cent in Vancouver and by 20 per cent in Nanaimo.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (June 2024) - July 16, 2024

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from a 2.9 per cent increase in May. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.1 per cent in June. The deceleration in headline CPI was largely driven by declining gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8 per cent in June. The shelter cost index remains the major driver of inflation with the rate of increases higher now (6.2 per cent) than they were this time last year (4.8 per cent). Mortgage interest costs were up 22.3 per cent and rent was up 8.8 per cent from last June. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.3 per cent, year over year. Driven by furniture and used cars, durable goods costs fell 1.8 per cent year-over-year in June as supply chains continue to recover. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.9 per cent in May. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.3 and 2.9 per cent per cent year-over-year in June. 

Canada's inflation report contained some good news mixed in with familiar challenges. The headline year-over-year price change declined in June, reversing May's uptick, and came close to the lowest rate since early 2021. This was achieved in part due to 3.1 per cent month-over-month decline in gasoline prices following an announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it plans to increase production. On the other hand, the year-over-year change in food costs rose for a second consecutive month, halting an optimistic downward trend. CPI-median and CPI-trim are back above the 2 per cent target when measured on a 3-month annualized basis for the second consecutive month. Finally, shelter costs and especially rents remain the most persistent challenge in the CPI and show few clear signs of improvement. Taken together, however, markets considered the report positive news and raised the probability that the Bank of Canada would cut rates next Wednesday to 90 per cent. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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British Columbia's June 2024 MLS sales

Vancouver, BC – July 15, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,082 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in June 2024, a 19 per cent decrease from June 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in June 2024 was up 1 per cent at $998,159 compared to an average price of $988,632 in June 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $7.1 billion, an 18 per cent decline from the same time the previous year.  BC MLS® unit sales were 24 per cent lower than the ten-year average for June.

“Sales activity in June was much softer than the same time last year, with June of 2023 representing the market peak following last summer’s pause in rate hikes,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, both sales and active listings continue to gradually inch upwards, keeping the market in balanced territory.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 2 per cent to $38.6 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales were down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year at 38,639 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.3 per cent to $997,883.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S June 2024 MLS Sales

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,207,100. This represents a 0.5% increase from June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease from May 2024.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 3.7% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.1% from May 2024.

- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 3.0% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.6% from May 2024.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 1.0% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.4% from Jun 2023.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Metro Vancouver* home sales registered on the MLS® remained below seasonal and historical averages in June. With reduced competition among buyers, inventory has continued to accumulate to levels not seen since the spring of 2019:

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,418 in June 2024, a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 2,988 sales recorded in June 2023. This was 23.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,166).

 “The June data continued a trend we’ve been watching where buyers appear hesitant to transact in volumes we consider typical for this time of year, while sellers remain keen to bring their properties to market,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “This dynamic is bringing inventory levels up to a healthy range not seen since before the pandemic. This trend is providing buyers more selection to choose from and driving all market segments toward balanced conditions.”

There were 5,723 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in June 2024. This represents a 7 per cent increase compared to the 5,347 properties listed in June 2023. This total is 3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (5,554). The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,182, a 42 per cent increase compared to June 2023 (9,990). This total is 20.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (11,790).

 Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2024 is 17.6 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.1 per cent for detached homes, 21.1 per cent for attached, and 20.3 per cent for apartments. Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“With an interest rate announcement from the Bank of Canada in July, there is a possibility of another cut to the policy rate this summer. This is yet another factor tilting the market in favour of buyers, even if the boost to affordability is modest,” Lis said. “But June’s lower-than-normal transaction volumes suggest many buyers remain hesitant, which has allowed inventory to accumulate and has kept a lid on upward price pressure across market segments. With that said, the transaction-level data do show that well-priced properties are still selling quickly, suggesting astute buyers are able to spot value and act when opportunities arise.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,207,100. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase over June 2023 and a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to May 2024.

 Sales of detached homes in June 2024 reached 694, a 18.2 per cent decrease from the 848 detached sales recorded in June 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,061,000. This represents a 3.7 per cent increase from June 2023 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to May 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,245 in June 2024, a 20.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,573 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $773,400. This represents a 1 per cent increase from June 2023 and a 0.4 per cent decrease compared to May 2024.

Attached home sales in June 2024 totalled 456, a 16.6 per cent decrease compared to the 547 sales in June 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,138,100. This represents a 3 per cent increase from June 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to May 2024.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (April 2024) - June 28th, 2024

Canadian real GDP grew 0.3 per cent in April, following close to zero change in March. The growth was driven equally by goods (+0.3 per cent) and services (+0.3 per cent), as well as a rebound in wholesale trade (+2 per cent), manufacturing (+0.4 per cent), and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+1.8 per cent). Residential construction activity fell by 2.3 per cent as higher interest rates eroded profitability for new projects. The sector is now nearly 24 per cent below its peak in April 2021. Cooler home sales caused GDP from offices of real estate agents and brokers to fall 2.5 per cent from the prior month. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew by 0.1 per cent in May.

Canada's economy expanded at a reasonable rate that matched analyst expectations in April, following an unexpected jump in inflation last Tuesday. The GDP release caused little change in market expectations of a rate cut in July, which markets are currently pricing at close to 50-50 odds. The Bank of Canada will be watching next Friday's jobs report as the last major piece of information before it decides whether to cut or hold rates at its next meeting on July 24th. Regardless of whether the Bank cuts in July, markets are anticipating a gradual decline in the overnight rate throughout the rest of the year and into 2025. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (May 2024) - June 25, 2024

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.7 per cent increase in April. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.3 per cent in May. The acceleration in headline CPI was driven by rising prices for services, especially cellular, travel, rents, and air transport. The shelter cost index remains the major driver of inflation with the rate of increases higher now (6.4 per cent) than they were this time last year (4.7 per cent). Mortgage interest costs were up 23.3 per cent and rent was up 8.6 per cent from the same time last year in May. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.5 per cent, year over year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.9 per cent year-over-year, unchanged from April. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.4 and 2.9 per cent per cent year-over-year in May. 

Canada's inflation rate came in higher than expected in May, halting a string of good reports since the start of the year. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, CPI median and CPI trim, jumped back above the 2 per cent target when measured on a 3-month annualized basis. Food prices ticked up sharply last month after remaining flat or declining in every prior month since the start of the year. Rents remain the most troubling component of the CPI bundle, and still show no signs of slowing down. Rents rose 9.3 percent over the last 4 months on an annualized basis. While one month does not make a trend, the probability of an additional rate cut by the Bank of Canada in July declined following the report. The Bank will be watching the forthcoming employment and GDP reports closely to guide its decision prior to the next announcement on Wednesday, July 24th. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (April 2024) - June 25, 2024

Canadian retail sales rose 0.7 per cent to $66.8 billion in April. Excluding volatile items, sales were up 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose 0.5 per cent in April.

Retail sales in BC were up by 1.3 per cent in April and up by 2.2 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.4 per cent from the prior month and were up 2.5 from April 2023.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (May 2024) - June 17th, 2024

Canadian housing starts rose 10 per cent to 264,506 units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 35 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were largely unchanged from last month at 54,410 units, while multi-family and others rose 13 per cent to 210,093 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell 15 per cent from last month to 46,507 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 7 per cent to 4,360 units while multi-family starts dropped 18 per cent to 39,959 units. Starts in the province were 14 per cent above the levels from May 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts were up by 20 per cent in Victoria, 52 per cent in Kelowna, and 41 per cent in Abbotsford. Year-to-date starts were down by 8 per cent in Vancouver and by 14 per cent in Nanaimo. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Employment (May 2024) - June 7th, 2024

Canadian employment edged up by 27,000, or 0.1 per cent, to 20.518 million in May. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $34.94 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.6 per cent from May of last year.

Employment in BC fell 0.3 per cent to 2.863 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver fell 1.1 per cent to 1.610 million in April. The unemployment rate rose 0.6 points in BC to 5.6 per cent while rising in Metro Vancouver by 0.8 points to 6.1 per cent last month.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate this morning by 25 basis points from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that first quarter real GDP growth was below forecast, and recent data suggests the economy in operating in excess supply. On inflation, the Bank sees downward momentum in core inflation, while noting that shelter inflation remains high. Overall, the Bank is confident that inflation will continue to move toward its 2 per cent target and that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive. 

This Bank of Canada rate-lowering cycle will be one of the few times this century that rates are being cut for reasons other than in response to a global crisis. As such, we should expect a gradual pace of rate cuts measuring 25 basis points per meeting over the next 18 months until the Bank’s policy rate hits the mid-point of the Bank’s estimated neutral range of 2.25-3.25 per cent.  Where the policy rate ultimately ends up will be dictated by economic conditions. A good baseline is 2.75 per cent, but a worse than expected economy could mean the Bank’s policy rate needs to fall under 2.25 per cent for a period, and conversely, more stubborn than anticipated inflation could mean that this lowering cycle stalls out north of 3.25 per cent.

Now that the Bank of Canada is at long last lowering its policy rate, the impact on fixed mortgage rates may not be that significant. The bond market, and by association the mortgage market, is a machine that digests all available information about current and future economic conditions and, since late 2023, markets have strongly anticipated falling policy rates. As a result, 5-year fixed mortgage rates have likely already priced in the entirety of expected rate cuts. As for variable rates, current market pricing has settled around prime minus 60 basis points. If that discount holds, it will take seven rate cuts or 175 basis points, before the average variable rate falls back under the average 5-year fixed rate.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Metro Vancouver* home sales down in May while inventory continues to increase:

The number of transactions on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) declined in May compared to what is typical for this time of year in Metro Vancouver. This shift has allowed the inventory of homes available for sale to continue to accumulate with over 13,000 homes now actively listed on the MLS® in the region. 

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,733 in May 2024, a 19.9 per cent decrease from the 3,411 sales recorded in May 2023. Last month’s sales total was also down 19.6 per cent from the 10-year seasonal average for May (3,398). 

“The surprise in the May data is that sales have come in softer than what we’d typically expect to see at this point in the year, while the number of newly listed homes for sale is carrying some of the momentum seen in the April data,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “It’s a natural inclination to chalk these trends up to one factor or another, but what we’re seeing is a culmination of factors influencing buyer and seller decisions in the market right now. It’s everything from higher borrowing costs, to worries about the economy, to policy interventions imposed by various levels of government.” 

There were 6,374 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in May 2024. This represents a 12.6 per cent increase compared to the 5,661 properties listed in May 2023 and a seven per cent increase compared to the 10-year seasonal average (5,958). The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 13,600, a 46.3 per cent increase compared to May 2023 (9,293). This total is also up 19.9 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (11,344). 

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for May 2024 is 20.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.8 per cent for detached homes, 25.1 per cent for attached, and 22.5 per cent for apartment properties. Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 

“With market trends now tilting back toward more balanced conditions, as the number of new listings outpaces the number of sales, we should expect to see slower price growth over the coming months,” Lis said. “Up until recently, prices were climbing modestly across all market segments. But with rising inventory levels and softening demand, buyers who’ve been waiting for an opportunity might have more luck this summer, even if borrowing costs remain elevated.” 

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,212,000. This represents a 2.3 per cent increase over May 2023 and a 0.5 per cent increase compared to April 2024. 

Sales of detached homes in May 2024 reached 846, an 18.9 per cent decrease from the 1,043 detached sales recorded in May 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,062,600. This represents a 5.9 per cent increase from May 2023 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to April 2024. 

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,338 in May 2024, a 22.7 per cent decrease compared to the 1,730 sales in May 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $776,200. This represents a 2.2 per cent increase from May 2023 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to April 2024. 

 Attached home sales in May 2024 totalled 523, a 14 per cent decrease compared to the 608 sales in May 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,145,600. This represents a 5.2 per cent increase from May 2023 and a 0.9 per cent increase compared to April 2024.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (Q1'2024) - May 31st, 2024

Canadian real GDP was essentially unchanged in March, following a 0.2 per cent increase in February. Both goods and services sectors were unchanged from February. Residential construction activity rose by 1.4 per cent driven by increased construction of single-detached homes, while the broader construction sector also rose (+1.1 per cent). GDP from offices of real estate agents and brokers fell 0.9 per cent last month as home sales cooled somewhat. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose by 0.3 per cent in April. 

Real GDP rose 1.7 per cent in the first quarter on an annualized basis, following no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 (revised down from 0.2 per cent). Household spending on services, such as telecom, rents, and air travel, rose by 1.1 per cent from the prior quarter and drove much of the increase. Employee compensation rose 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, following a 0.9 per cent increase in the previous quarter. This helped contribute to a rising household savings rate, which hit 7 per cent, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, housing market resale activity rose, with ownership transfer costs up 7.1 per cent. New home construction was essentially flat. 

Zero real economic growth in March, and below-forecast first quarter growth, is yet another piece of evidence supporting a rate cut next week. Soft real GDP growth in Canada looks worse when one considers the very rapid rate of population growth; real GDP per capita continues to sharply decline. This comes in the context of excellent progress on inflation, which hit 2.7 per cent last month, and looks even better when one digs deeper into the CPI report. Price appreciation now boils down almost entirely to rents and mortgage costs. Employment, for its part, also continues to soften, with the unemployment rate hitting 6.1 per cent last month. Taken together, markets anticipate that the bank will begin rate cuts at its announcement next week on June 5th.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (March 2024) - May 24, 2024

Canadian retail sales fell 0.2 per cent to $66.4 billion in March. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales fell 0.4 per cent in March.

After rising more than 1 per cent in February, retail sales in BC were down by 0.4 per cent in March and were down by 0.4 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.1 per cent from the prior month and were up 1 from March 2023.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (April 2024) - May 22, 2024

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from a 2.9 per cent increase in March. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.2 per cent in April. The deceleration in headline CPI was driven by softening food, services, and durable goods prices, but was moderated by an uptick in gasoline prices (up 6.1 per cent year-over-year). Excluding energy costs, CPI rose 2.5 per cent year-over-year in April, down from 2.8 per cent in March. The shelter cost index remains the major driver of inflation with the rate of increases higher now (6.4 per cent) than they were this time last year (4.9 per cent). Mortgage interest costs were up 24.5 per cent and rent was up 8.2 per cent from the same time last year in April. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.2 per cent, year over year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.9 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.7 per cent in March. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.6 and 2.9 per cent per cent year-over-year in March.

Canada's inflation rate continued to trend in the right direction in April, hitting the slowest rate of appreciation since March 2021. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, CPI median and CPI trim, have now been below the 2 per cent target for two consecutive months when measured on a 3-month annualized basis. Food costs also appear to be normalizing, and the overall food price index is essentially at 2 per cent. The main problem within the CPI basket is now almost exclusively the shelter component; rent appreciation in particular is troublingly high and the rate of increase continues to rise. Excluding shelter from the CPI index and comparing prices on an annualized 3-month basis, price appreciation in Canada has been close to zero for about half a year. Overall, this report contained yet more good news on inflation and will support the Bank of Canada's case to lower its policy rate in June. The next rate announcement is on Wednesday, June 5th.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Employment (April 2024) - May 11th, 2024


Canadian employment rose by 90,400, or 0.4 per cent, to 20.491 million in April. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year to $34.95 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.2 per cent from April of last year.


Employment in BC rose 0.8 per cent to 2.871 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.7 per cent to 1.627 million in April. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 points in BC to 5 per cent while falling in Metro Vancouver by 0.3 points to 5.3 per cent last month.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Actively listed homes for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver* continued climbing in April, up 42 per cent year-over-year, breaching the 12,000 mark, a number not seen in the region since the summer of 2020. 


Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,831 in April 2024, a 3.3 per cent increase from the 2,741 sales recorded in April 2023. This was 12.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,223). 


“It’s a feat to see inventory finally climb above 12,000. Many were predicting higher inventory levels would materialize quickly when the Bank of Canada began its aggressive rate hikes, but we’re only seeing a steady climb in inventory in the more recent data,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “The surprise for many market watchers has been the continued strength of demand along with the fact few homeowners have been forced to sell in the face of the highest borrowing costs experienced in over a decade.” 


There were 7,092 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2024. This represents a 64.7 per cent increase compared to the 4,307 properties listed in April 2023.  


This was 25.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (5,637). 


The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 12,491, a 42.1 per cent increase compared to April 2023 (8,790).  


This is 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (10,704). 


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2024 is 23.5 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 17.6 per cent for detached homes, 31.0 per cent for attached, and 26.0 per cent for apartments. 


Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 


“Another surprising story in the April data is the fact prices continue climbing across most segments with recent increases typically in the range of one to two per cent month-over-month,” Lis said. “The one segment that didn’t see an uptick in prices in April were apartments, which saw a 0.1 per cent decline month-over-month. This moderation is likely due to a confluence of factors impacting this more affordability sensitive segment of the market, particularly the impact of higher mortgage rates and the recent boost to inventory levels, tempering competition somewhat.” 


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,205,800. This represents a 2.8 per cent increase over April 2023 and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to March 2024. 


Sales of detached homes in April 2024 reached 814, a 0.7 per cent increase from the 808 detached sales recorded in April 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,040,000. This represents a 6.3 per cent increase from April 2023 and a 1.6 per cent increase compared to March 2024. 


Sales of apartment homes reached 1,416 in April 2024, a 0.2 per cent increase compared to the 1,413 sales in April 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $776,500. This represents a 3.2 per cent increase from April 2023 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to March 2024. 


Attached home sales in April 2024 totalled 580, a 16 per cent increase compared to the 500 sales in April 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,127,200. This represents a 4.3 per cent increase from April 2023 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to March 2024.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (February 2024) - May 1st, 2024


Canadian real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in February, following a 0.5 per cent increase in January. The growth was driven by services-producing sectors (+0.2 per cent), led by growth in rail, air, and pipeline transportation. Residential construction activity fell by 0.5 per cent, declining for the fourth consecutive month following a burst of activity in the summer and fall of 2023. Cooler home sales caused GDP from offices of real estate agents and brokers to fall 1.9 per cent last month, undoing some of the growth in December and January. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially unchanged in March.

Amid cooling inflation and weakening labour markets, February's rather soft GDP report provides additional support for the broadly anticipated beginning of rate cuts in June. Although growth appeared strong in January, this was largely due to the conclusion of public sector strikes in Quebec, which caused a temporary boost to growth. Meanwhile, February's growth came in cooler than expected and the preliminary estimate for March is for zero growth. Markets currently expect the Bank to make its first overnight rate cut since early 2020 at its next meeting on June 5th. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (February 2024) - April 24, 2024


Canadian retail sales fell 0.1 per cent to $66.7 billion in February. Excluding volatile items, sales were flat on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales fell 0.3 per cent in February.

After falling more than 2 per cent in January, retail sales in BC were up 1.2 per cent in February and were up 2.6 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.2 per cent from the prior month and were up 4.2 from February 2023.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.




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Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.