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British Columbia's February 2024 MLS sales


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,497 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in February 2024, an increase of 15.3 per cent from February 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in February 2024 was up 4.7 per cent at $987,798 compared to an average price of $943,574 in February 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $5.4 billion, an increase of 20.7 per cent from the same time in the previous year.


"The BC housing market is in a period of relative calm entering the spring," said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "While activity is picking up, home sales remain below normal, and home prices have been essentially flat since last summer."

Active listings are up 20.3 per cent over last year as a result of slower sales but also a recovery in new listings in January and February following a very slow year for listings activity in 2023. Last year was the slowest pace of new listing activity since 2005.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


 
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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S February 2024 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,183,300. This represents a 1.9% increase from January 2024 and a 4.5% increase from February 2023.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes increased  1.5% from Jan 2024 and increased 7.2% from Feb 2023.


- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 2.6% from Jan 2024 and increased 4.2% from Feb 2023.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 2.5% from Jan 2024 and increased 5.6% from Feb 2023.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Employment (February 2024) - March 8th, 2024


Canadian employment rose by 41,000, or 0.2 per cent, to 20.403 million in February. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.8 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5 per cent year-over-year to $34.82 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.3 per cent from February of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.2 per cent to 2.841 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.2 per cent to 1.615 million in February. The unemployment rate fell 0.2 points in BC to 5.2 per cent while falling in Metro Vancouver by 0.5 points to 5 per cent last month.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that economic growth is slow, wage pressures are easing, and the economy overall appears to be in a state of modest excess supply. On inflation, the Bank cited that shelter costs remain the largest contributor to inflation and that it expects headline CPI inflation to remain close to 3 per cent in the first half of this year before gradually falling back to its 2 per cent target. 

This morning's decision was much more about what the Bank is signaling for future meetings than the decision itself.  All attention will now shift to April 10th, the Bank's next meeting and the first in which a rate cut is a real possibility. Although the economy flirted with recession in 2023, it has so far managed to avoid a lengthy contraction in output. However, economic growth does appear rather anemic and given substantial progress on bringing inflation toward 2 per cent, it is clearly time for the Bank of Canada to begin easing policy. We expect that the Bank will eventually lower its overight rate by 100 basis points this year, with the first rate cut happening in April or June.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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While Metro Vancouver* home sellers appeared somewhat hesitant in January, new listings rose 31 per cent year-over-year in February, bringing a significant number of newly listed properties to the market:

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,070 in February 2024, a 13.5 per cent increase from the 1,824 sales recorded in February 2023. This was 23.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,699).
 
“While the pace of home sales started the year off briskly, the pace of newly listed properties in January was slower by comparison. A continuation of this pattern in February would have been concerning, as it could quickly tilt the market towards overheated conditions,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “With new listings up about 31 per cent year-over-year in February, this will relieve some of the pressure that was building in January and offer buyers more choice as we enter the spring and summer markets.”

There were 4,560 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in February 2024. This represents a 31.1 per cent increase compared to the 3,478 properties listed in February 2023. This was 0.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,568).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,634, a 16.3 per cent increase compared to February 2023 (8,283). This is three per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (9,352).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 is 22.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16 per cent for detached homes, 27.9 per cent for attached, and 25.9 per cent for apartments. Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
 

“Even with the increase in new listings however, standing inventory levels were not high enough relative to the pace of sales to mitigate price acceleration in February, with most segments of the market moving into sellers’ territory,” Lis said. “This competitive dynamic has led to modest price growth across all market segments this month, but it’s noteworthy that benchmark prices remain below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the market internalized the full effect of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle.”
 
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,183,300. This represents a 4.5 per cent increase over February 2023 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to January 2024.

Sales of detached homes in February 2024 reached 560, an 8.3 per cent increase from the 517 detached sales recorded in February 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,972,400. This represents a 7.2 per cent increase from February 2023 and a 1.5 per cent increase compared to January 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,092 in February 2024, a 17.7 per cent increase compared to the 928 sales in February 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $770,700. This represents a 5.6 per cent increase from February 2023 and a 2.5 per cent increase compared to January 2024.
 
Attached home sales in February 2024 totalled 403, a 10.1 per cent increase compared to the 366 sales in February 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,094,700. This represents a 4.2 per cent increase from February 2023 and a 2.6 per cent increase compared to January 2024.


Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (Q4 '2023) - February 29th, 2024


Canadian real GDP was largely unchanged in December, declining by 0.02 per cent, following two months of growth. Goods-producing sectors contracted by 0.2 per cent, while services were essentially unchanged. Construction activity fell 0.6 per cent in December, with residential building declining by 1.6 per cent. Offices of real estate agents and brokers rose 9 per cent, following five consecutive monthly declines amid soft home sales. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.4 per cent in January, helped by the conclusion of strikes in Quebec. 

Real GDP rose 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, close to 1 per cent on an annualized basis, erasing a 0.1 per cent decline in the third quarter. Improved net exports, driven by the strong US economy and Albertan crude oil, pushed GDP upwards. However, business investment declined for the sixth time over the most recent seven quarters. Household spending rose 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, driven by vehicle imports, but strong population growth meant that per capita consumption declined for the third consecutive quarter. At 6.2 per cent, the household savings rate was down slightly from the third quarter, but remains higher than pre-pandemic levels. Housing investment was down for the year, with residential construction down 10.2 per cent and ownership transfer costs down 7.7 per cent. At 1.2 per cent growth, 2023 was the slowest year for real GDP growth since 2016, excluding 2020. 

Economic growth in Canada was soft in 2023, and although it flirted with recession it has so far managed to avoid one. The central bank has raised rates by 475 basis points over two years and, as of the most recent data, managed to bring inflation down to 2.9 per cent without causing a major increase in unemployment or a contraction in GDP. The "soft landing" that seemed unlikely two years ago is now visible. However, while aggregate real GDP has not contracted, per capita GDP has contracted for six consecutive quarters as economic growth has failed to keep pace with rapid population growth. Per capita, real GDP is comparable to the level of 2017. Financial markets continue to expect that rate cuts will begin in the late spring and accumulate into the summer. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, March 6th.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (December 2023) - February 26, 2024


Canadian retail sales rose 0.9 per cent in December to $67.3 billion. Excluding volatile items, sales were up 0.5 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.8 per cent in December. Retail e-commerce trade fell by 3.6 per cent to $3.7 billion in December, amounting to 5.5 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC rose 1.5 per cent in December. BC retail sales are up 2.8 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.5 per cent from last month and 5.4 per cent from December of 2022.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (January 2024) - February 20, 2024


Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in January, down from a 3.4% increase in December. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI declined by 0.1 per cent in January, the first decline since May of 2020. Gasoline base-year effects contributed to the decline. Excluding energy costs, CPI rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year in January, down from 3.7 per cent in December. Decelerating food costs also contributed to the slowing in the CPI, with food prices rising by 3.4 per cent in January compared to 4.7 per cent in December. Shelter costs, however, continue to be a major driver of inflation, with mortgage interest costs up 27.4 per cent and rent up 7.9 per cent from last year in January. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose 1.5 per cent, year over year. In BC, consumer prices rose 3 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 3.3 and 3.4 per cent per cent year-over-year in January. 

January's CPI report contained unexpectedly good news, with the annual change in prices technically falling within the Bank of Canada's 1 to 3 per cent target range and declining month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis for the first time since the start of the pandemic. While volatile gas prices contributed to the decline, easing price pressures in other areas also reduced pressure on the CPI. Food price appreciation has been easing over the past 12 months and is now not far above historical norms. The category that remains the most challenging is shelter, with rents in particular so far showing no sign of slowing. Overall, January was an encouraging report, and markets shifted their expectations of rate cuts forward slightly, with cuts expected to begin in Q2. However, the Bank of Canada will be looking to see a sustained trend in inflation in the coming months before they will be comfortable initiating rate cuts.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (January 2024) - February 18th, 2024


Canadian housing starts fell 10 per cent to 223,589 units in January at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 7 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 4 per cent from last month to 54,248 units, while multi-family and others fell 14 per cent to 169,341 units (SAAR).

In British Columbia, starts fell 50 per cent from last month to 31,088 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 3 per cent to 4,742 units while multi-family starts shrank 56 per cent to 24,206 units. Starts in the province were 39 per cent below the levels from January 2023. Starts fell from last month by 22.3k units in Vancouver, 5.5k in Victoria, and 2.8k in Kelowna while rising by 1.0k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 5.8 per cent from last month to 46,902 SAAR.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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British Columbia's January 2024 MLS sales


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,979 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in January 2024, an increase of 29.4 per cent from January 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in January 2024 was up 10.5 per cent at $957,909 compared to an average price of $866,922, the low-point for average prices over the past two years. The total sales dollar volume was $3.8 billion, an increase of 42.9 per cent from the same time in the previous year.


"Home sales are on a clear uptrend to start 2024," said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "A sharp decline in fixed mortgage rates and expectations for future Bank of Canada rate cuts is driving sentiment in the market and bringing pent-up demand off the sidelines."
 
The total number of active listings, though up year-over-year, remains relatively low by historical standards. New listings activity has shown signs of normalizing following a down year in 2023. A steady pace of new inventory will be crucial in keeping markets balanced as sales accelerate.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Employment (January 2024) - February 11th, 2024


Canadian employment rose by 0.2 per cent in January to 20.362 million. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5.3 per cent year-over-year to $34.75 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.1 per cent from January of last year.

Employment in BC fell 0.1 per cent to 2.84 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver fell 0.4 per cent to 1.61 million in January. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 points in BC to 5.4 per cent while falling in Metro Vancouver at 5.5 per cent.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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While the Metro Vancouver* market ended 2023 in balanced market territory, conditions in January began shifting back in favour of sellers as the pace of newly listed properties did not keep up with the jump in home sales:


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,427 in January 2024, a 38.5 per cent increase from the 1,030 sales recorded in January 2023. This was 20.2 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (1,788).


“It’s hard to believe that January sales figures came in so strong after such a quiet December, which saw many buyers and sellers delaying major decisions,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “If sellers don’t step off the sidelines soon, the competition among buyers could tilt the market back into sellers’ territory as the available inventory struggles to keep pace with demand.”


There were 3,788 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in January 2024. This represents a 14.5 per cent increase compared to the 3,308 properties listed in January 2023. This was 9.1 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (4,166).


The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,633, a 9.8 per cent increase compared to January 2023 (7,862). This is 0.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (8,657).


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2024 is 17.2 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 11.9 per cent for detached homes, 22.9 per cent for attached, and 19.9 per cent for apartments. Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


“Our 2024 forecast is calling for a two to three per cent increase in prices by the end of the year, which is largely the result of demand, once again, butting up against too little inventory,” Lis said. “If the January figures are indicative of what the spring market has in store, our forecast may already be off to an overly conservative start. Markets can shift quickly, however, and we’ll watch the February numbers to see if these early signs of strength continue, or whether they’re a blip in the data.”


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,161,300. This represents a 4.2 per cent increase over January 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2023.


Sales of detached homes in January 2024 reached 379, a 28 per cent increase from the 296 detached sales recorded in January 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,942,400. This represents a 7.3 per cent increase from January 2023 and a 1.1 per cent decrease compared to December 2023.


Sales of apartment homes reached 746 in January 2024, a 30.6 per cent increase compared to the 571 sales in January 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $751,900. This represents a 4.4 per cent increase from January 2023 and a 0.1 per cent increase compared to December 2023.


Attached home sales in January 2024 totalled 285, a 82.7 per cent increase compared to the 156 sales in January 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,066,700. This represents a 4.3 per cent increase from January 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2023.




Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (November 2023) - January 31st, 2024


Canadian real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in November, following three consecutive months of essentially zero growth. The growth was driven by the goods-producing sectors, which rose by 0.6 per cent. Manufacturing jumped 0.9 per cent in November, led by growth in chemical manufacturing as a number of plants resumed production following maintenance. The resilience of the US economy, as well as the end of a strike by Saint Lawrence seaway employees, likely buoyed exports. Construction activity fell by 0.2 per cent overall, while residential construction rose by just 0.3 per cent, slowing from a burst of construction over the summer and fall. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 1.3 per cent as home resales remained soft amid elevated borrowing costs. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.3 per cent in December.

Following a period of essentially zero growth in real GDP from the early spring to late fall, November's GDP read, alongside December's preliminary estimate, offers hope that the Canadian economy can find its footing and resume growth. If the December preliminary estimate is accurate, real GDP will have expanded by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter and by 1.5 per cent in 2023 as a whole. Although growth remains slow, it is encouraging to note that the economy is still growing in contrast to widely held expectations of a recession. Financial markets continue to expect that rate cuts will begin in the spring and accumulate into the summer. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, March 6th.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning.  In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and that growth will likely remain flat until the second quarter of 2024. Slow economic growth has allowed supply to catch up to demand and the Bank now judges that the economy is operating with moderate excess supply. On inflation, the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3 per cent in the first half of 2024 before gradually falling back to its 2 per cent target in 2025. However, the Bank cautions that while price pressure is falling across a broad number of CPI components, core inflation is not showing a sustained decline.  As such, the Bank is still concerned about the risk to the outlook from persistent underlying inflation. 

Today's interest rate decision and the tenor of the accompanying statement were not surprising given slightly hotter than expected core inflation in December.  However, we expect inflation will resume on its trajectory down to 2 per cent, with some stickiness due to supply side driven shelter costs. Falling inflation, along with weak economic growth and a softening labour market will necessitate rate cuts this year to jumpstart a fledgling economy heading into 2025. We expect the Bank of Canada will lower its overnight rate in June, ultimately lowering to 4 per cent by the end of the year. Financial market expectations for more aggressive rate cuts prompted a steep decline in 5-year bond yields, and therefore 5-year fixed mortgage rates, to start 2024 but yields have since retraced slightly following December's CPI data.  We anticipate that 5-year fixed mortgage rates, currently averaging 5.39 per cent, will eventually fall to 5 per cent by the end of the year and will settle near 4.5 per cent by the end of 2025.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Retail Sales (November 2023) - January 20, 2024


Canadian retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in November to $66.6 billion. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.6 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.2 per cent in November. Retail e-commerce trade fell by 1.5 per cent to $3.9 billion in November, amounting to 5.8 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC rose 0.7 per cent in November. BC retail sales are up 1.4 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.2 per cent from last month and 3.3 per cent from November of 2022.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (December 2023) - January 17th, 2024


Canadian housing starts rose 18 per cent to 249,255 units in December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 1 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts fell 3 per cent from last month to 52,426 units, while multi-family and others rose 25 per cent to 196,830 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts jumped 58 per cent from last month to 62,458 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 8 per cent to 4,559 units while multi-family starts leaped 71 per cent to 55,329 units. Starts in the province were 8 per cent above the levels from December 2022. Starts rose from last month by 19.5k units in Vancouver, 2.2k in Victoria, and 3.8k in Kelowna while falling by 4.5k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 1 per cent to 49,785 SAAR. 

For the full year of 2023, starts in areas of Canada with 10,000 or more residents declined 7 per cent to 223,513, driven by a 25 per cent decline in single-family homes. However, starts were up 8 per cent in British Columbia and 28 per cent in Vancouver from 2022.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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BC's 2023 Housing Market Defined by High Rates and Slow Sales


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 73,109 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2023, a 9.2 per cent decline from 80,506 units sold in 2022. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $971,144, a 2.6 per cent decrease from $996,943 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $71 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from 2022.


“The highest mortgage rates in over 15 years led to the slowest sales in a decade for BC,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With mortgage rates falling to start the year and the potential for Bank of Canada rate cuts on the horizon, the outlook for 2024 appears much brighter.”
 
A total of 3,596 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in December 2023, an increase of 2.6 per cent from December 2022. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $965,447 a 6.5 per cent increase from $906,356 recorded in December 2022. Total sales dollar volume was $3.5 billion, a 9.3 per cent increase from the same time last year.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Employment (December 2023) - January 5th, 2024


Canadian employment was nearly unchanged from the prior month in December at 20.313 million. The Canadian unemployment rate also held steady at 5.8 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $34.45 in December, while total hours worked were up 1.7 per cent from December of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.6 per cent to 2.84 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.6 per cent to 1.62 million. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 points in BC to 5.6 per cent while rising in Metro Vancouver at 6.2 per cent in December.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S December 2023 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,168,700. This represents a 1.4% decrease from November 2023 and a 5.0% increase from December 2022.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.9% from Nov 2023 and increased 7.7% from Dec 2022.


- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 1.8% from Nov 2023 and increased 6.4% from Dec 2022.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 1.5% from Oct 2023 and increased 5.6% from Dec 2022.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Metro Vancouver’s* housing market closed out 2023 with balanced market conditions, but the year-end totals mask a story of surprising resilience in the face of the highest borrowing costs seen in over a decade:


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 26,249 in 2023, a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 29,261 sales recorded in 2022, and a 41.5 per cent decrease from the 44,884 sales in 2021. Last year’s sales total was 23.4 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (34,272). 


“You could miss it by just looking at the year-end totals, but 2023 was a strong year for the Metro Vancouver housing market considering that mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in over a decade,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “In our 2023 forecast, we called for modest price increases throughout the year while most other forecasters were predicting price declines. The fact that we ended the year with five-per-cent-plus gains in home prices across all market segments demonstrates that Metro Vancouver remains an attractive and desirable destination, and elevated borrowing costs alone aren’t enough to dissuade buyers determined to get into this market.” 


Properties listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver totalled 50,893 in 2023. This represents a 7.5 per cent decrease compared to the 55,047 properties listed in 2022. This was 20.2 per cent below the 63,761 properties listed in 2021. 


The total number of properties listed last year was 10.5 per cent below the region’s 10-year total annual average of (56,868). Currently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,802, a 13 per cent increase compared to December 2022 (7,791). This is 0.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (8,772). 


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,168,700. This represents a five per cent increase over December 2022 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to November 2023. 


“Ultimately, the story of 2023 is one of too few homes available relative to the pool of willing and qualified buyers,” Lis said. “Sellers were reluctant to list their properties early in the year, which led to fewer sales than usual coming out of the gate. But this also led to near record-low inventory levels in the spring, which put upward pressure on prices as buyers competed for the scarce few homes available.”

 
“Looking back on the year, it’s hard not to wonder how we’d be closing out 2023 if mortgage rates had been a few per cent lower than they were. And it looks like we might get some insight into that question in 2024, as bond markets and professional forecasters are projecting lower borrowing costs are likely to come, with modest rate cuts expected in the first half of the New Year.”



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.