Steve Flynn  RE/MAX Crest Realty- Burnaby 

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The Canadian economy posted blockbuster growth in May, expanding 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis and 4.6 per cent year-over-year.  This was the seventh consecutive month of positive growth for the Canadian economy. Moreover, growth was broad based with output increasing in 14 of 20 industrial sectors.  Given the first two months of GDP data, the Canadian economy is on track to post a second consecutive quarter of growth close to 4 per cent.

Strong economic growth further solidifies the Bank of Canada's case for raising interest rates 1 more time this year, likely at its October meeting. However, the path of interest rates beyond that rests heavily on the evolution of Canadian inflation, which has been trending well below the Bank's 2 per cent target.  



 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 


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I have sold a property at 502 200 NELSON'S CRES in New Westminster.
BRAND NEW, stylish 525 sq ft, 1 bed/1 bath, west-facing condo in The Sapperton in New West's dynamic Brewery District. Never occupied and no GST! Very bright w/efficient floor plan & excellent finishes: stainless steel, quartz, laminate + gas cooktop. Amazing amenities incl. lounge & 1000 sq ft common rooftop deck + access to 2-level, 10,000 sq ft Club Central w/party room, gym, squash court, steam & sauna rooms + more. Within 1-2 blocks: Royal Columbian Hospital, Translink, Skytrain, Save On Foods, TD Bank, Shoppers Drug Mart, Browns, Starbucks & more. Pets & rental allowed. 1 parking, 1 locker. OPEN HOUSES: Sat. July 22, 11am - 1pm and Sun. July 23, 2-4 pm.
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Nearly a year ago, the provincial government implemented an additional 15 per cent Property Transfer Tax (PTT) for residential real estate purchases by foreign buyers in the Metro Vancouver region.


BCREA's Economics Department conducted a thorough analysis of the impacts of this policy. The Association created a simulation for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) region, showing where sales would have been if the foreign buyers' PTT had not been implemented. 


The result? Over time, the impact has been minor. While total sales in the REBGV area fell 19 per cent in August 2016 and dipped below expected levels for several months, sales throughout 2017 have been on par with their expected levels had the tax not been in place.


However, the tax has impacted luxury homes, as many foreign buyers are looking for high-end properties. Sales of homes over $3 million ramped up in the first half of 2016, reaching 5 per cent of total Metro Vancouver sales in February. In August 2016, when the tax was implemented, that share fell to 3.6 per cent and continued to decline. However, like the rest of the market, sales of luxury homes returned to more normal levels in the first four months of 2017.


There has also been minimal leakage of foreign investment outside of the Metro Vancouver area. The regions of BC unaffected by this tax have seen relatively stable levels of foreign transactions over the past year. The Capital Regional District, which includes Victoria, experienced two months in which the share of foreign investment briefly spiked higher but, since August 2016, the share of foreign transactions has averaged just 5.2 per cent. 



 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 



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I have listed a new property at 502 200 NELSON'S CRES in New Westminster.
BRAND NEW, stylish 525 sq ft, 1 bed/1 bath, west-facing condo in The Sapperton in New West's dynamic Brewery District. Never occupied and no GST! Very bright w/efficient floor plan & excellent finishes: stainless steel, quartz, laminate + gas cooktop. Amazing amenities incl. lounge & 1000 sq ft common rooftop deck + access to 2-level, 10,000 sq ft Club Central w/party room, gym, squash court, steam & sauna rooms + more. Within 1-2 blocks: Royal Columbian Hospital, Translink, Skytrain, Save On Foods, TD Bank, Shoppers Drug Mart, Browns, Starbucks & more. Pets & rental allowed. 1 parking, 1 locker. OPEN HOUSES: Sat. July 22, 11am - 1pm and Sun. July 23, 2-4 pm.
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Please visit our Open House at 502 200 NELSON'S CRES in New Westminster.
Open House on Saturday, July 22, 2017 11:00AM - 1:00PM
BRAND NEW, stylish 525 sq ft, 1 bed/1 bath, west-facing condo in The Sapperton in New West's dynamic Brewery District. Never occupied and no GST! Very bright w/efficient floor plan & excellent finishes: stainless steel, quartz, laminate + gas cooktop. Amazing amenities incl. lounge & 1000 sq ft common rooftop deck + access to 2-level, 10,000 sq ft Club Central w/party room, gym, squash court, steam & sauna rooms + more. Within 1-2 blocks: Royal Columbian Hospital, Translink, Skytrain, Save On Foods, TD Bank, Shoppers Drug Mart, Browns, Starbucks & more. Pets & rental allowed. 1 parking, 1 locker. OPEN HOUSES: Sat. July 22, 11am - 1pm and Sun. July 23, 2-4 pm.
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Please visit our Open House at 502 200 NELSON'S CRES in New Westminster.
Open House on Sunday, July 23, 2017 1:00PM - 4:00PM
BRAND NEW, stylish 525 sq ft, 1 bed/1 bath, west-facing condo in The Sapperton in New West's dynamic Brewery District. Never occupied and no GST! Very bright w/efficient floor plan & excellent finishes: stainless steel, quartz, laminate + gas cooktop. Amazing amenities incl. lounge & 1000 sq ft common rooftop deck + access to 2-level, 10,000 sq ft Club Central w/party room, gym, squash court, steam & sauna rooms + more. Within 1-2 blocks: Royal Columbian Hospital, Translink, Skytrain, Save On Foods, TD Bank, Shoppers Drug Mart, Browns, Starbucks & more. Pets & rental allowed. 1 parking, 1 locker. OPEN HOUSES: Sat. July 22, 11am - 1pm and Sun. July 23, 2-4 pm.
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A further sign of momentum in the Canadian economy this morning as Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.1 per cent in May, the third consecutive monthly increase.  Overall, sales were higher in 16 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors, reflecting broad-based strength in the Canadian economy.  Continued strong economic data will likely push the Bank of Canada closer to a second rate increase this fall.
 
In BC, manufacturing sales increased 1.8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 8.2 per cent year-over-year. A strong manufacturing and trade sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in the province this year, which is on track to record a fourth consecutive year of 3 per cent or more growth in real GDP, the best performance for the provincial economy since 2007.  



 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 


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Vancouver, BC – July 13, 2017.


The The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,671 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, down 9.6 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $8.47 billion, down 5.6 per cent from June 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $725,778, a 4.4 per cent increase from the same period last year.


“Although home sales remain well off the record pace set last year, demand is still quite robust," said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. "That demand is supported by a strong provincial economy and vigorous job growth."


"But, supply remains a challenge, which means most areas are seeing tight market conditions and significant upward pressure on prices," said Ogmundson. Total active listings in the province were down 6.2 per cent to 29,651 units from June 2016.


Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 21.7 per cent to $39.1 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 18.6 per cent to 54,830 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.8 per cent to $712,993.




 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 



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The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that Canada's economy has been robust and a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. While inflation data has been soft, the Bank expects that this is temporary and that inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by mid-2018.

The motivation for today's rate increase seems primarily to be that the Bank feels that the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 through two rate cuts is no longer required given a recent trend of strong economic and employment growth. If that is the case, a further 25 basis point increase before the end of the year will likely follow.  After that, the pace of rate increases relies heavily on the trend in Canadian inflation, which to date has been well below the Bank's 2 per cent target. If that trend does not reverse by early next year, the Bank may decide to stop at a 1 per cent overnight rate until higher inflation emerges. 

As bond markets reprice rate expectations, Canadian mortgage rates have returned to levels observed at the beginning of the year. We expect that mortgage rates will rise further in the second half of 2017, finishing near 3 per cent for a five-year fixed rate. 


 

 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 



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Canadian housing starts increased 9 per cent in June to 212,695 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts continues to trend higher at about 215,459 units SAAR, the highest level in almost five years.

In BC, total housing starts declined 19 per cent on a monthly basis to a still robust 37,279 units SAAR and were down 22 per cent on a year-over-year basis.  Single detached starts fell 2 per cent month-over-month but were 14 per cent higher year-over-year. Multiple unit starts fell 24 per cent month-over-month and were down 31 per cent year-over-year.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC: 

  • Total starts in the Vancouver CMA were actually down 34 per cent year-over-year with a 2 per cent decline posted in single units starts and a 40 per cent drop in multiple units starts compared to last year. The record level of units currently under construction is likely putting downward pressure on new starts as the industry is close to capacity.

  • In the Victoria CMA market, housing starts declined 42 per cent year-over-year with multiple unit starts at only half the level of June 2016. Single unit starts increased 5 per cent.  

  • New home construction in the Kelowna CMA was up 80 per cent year-over-year but fell by half on a monthly basis compared to a big increase in new home construction in May. 
     
  • Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA more than doubled on a both a monthly and year-over-year basis due to more than 230 new multiple units starts in June.   



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 

 

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Canadian employment increased by 45,000 jobs in June and is up by almost 100,000 jobs over the past two months. The national unemployment rate ticked lower by 0.1 points to 6.5 per cent and total hours worked was up 1.4 per cent over the past 12 months. 


While the majority of June's employment gains were in part-time work, Canada has added 250,000 full-time jobs in the past year.  Today's strong jobs number provides the Bank of Canada with supporting evidence that the Canadian economy no longer needs the extra stimulus put in place in 2015. That likely pushes the Bank closer to raising its overnight rate as early as next week.
 
In BC, employment continues to expand rapidly. The province added 20,000 new jobs in June, a 4.4 per cent increase over the past 12 months. The provincial unemployment rate fell 0.5 points to 5.1 per cent.  




Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 

 

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The total value of Canadian building permits jumped 8.9 per cent in April to the third highest value on record. The increase was primarily due to higher residential construction intentions in Ontario. 

The total value of permits issued in BC increased 4.4 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 8.3 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits rose 7.6 per cent on a monthly basis and were 8.3 per cent higher year-over year while non-residential permits declined 3.5 per cent on a monthly basis but were 8.3 per cent higher year-over-year.

Construction intentions were higher in three of BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA):

  • Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA  fell almost 40 per cent in May to $45 million after a very strong April. Year-over-year, permit values were more than double the value of May 2016.
  • In the Victoria CMA, total construction intentions totaled close to $130 million, a 20 per cent monthly increase and a doubling of permit values from one year ago.
  • In the Kelowna CMA, permits were 39 per cent lower on a monthly basis and 10 per cent down from May 2016 at about $71 million.
  • In the Vancouver CMA, permit activity was up 14 per cent to $722 million.  However, on a year-over-year basis, construction intentions fell 6.1 per cent.  


Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission. 

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VANCOUVER, BC – July 5, 2017 – The imbalance between supply and demand in the condominium market is creating home buyer competition across Metro Vancouver*.


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 3,893 in June 2017, an 11.5 per cent decrease from the 4,400 sales recorded in June 2016, an all-time record, and a decrease of 10.8 per cent compared to May 2017 when 4,364 homes sold. Last month’s sales were 14.5 per cent above the 10-year June sales average.


“Two distinct markets have emerged this summer. The detached home market has seen demand ease back to more typical levels while competition for condominiums is creating multiple offer scenarios and putting upward pressure on prices for that property type,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said.


There were 5,721 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in June 2017. This represents a 2.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,875 homes listed in June 2016 and a 5.3 per cent decrease compared to May 2017 when 6,044 homes were listed. The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,515, a nine per cent increase compared to June 2016 (7,812) and a 4.2 per cent increase compared to May 2017 (8,168).


“Home buyers have more selection to choose from in the detached market today while condominium listings are near an all-time low on the MLS®,” Oudil said. “Detached home listings have increased every month this year, while the number of condominiums for sale has decreased each month since February.”


For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2017 is 45.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 24.5 per cent for detached homes, 62 per cent for townhomes, and 93.2 per cent for condominiums.
Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


“Market conditions will vary today depending on area and property type,” Oudil said. “It’s important to work with your local REALTOR® to help you understand the trends that are occurring in your community.” The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $998,700. This represents a 7.9 per cent increase over June 2016 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Sales of detached properties in June 2017 reached 1,320, a decrease of 15.5 per cent from the 1,562 detached sales recorded in June 2016. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,587,900. This represents a 1.4 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,905 in June 2017, a decrease of 9.6 per cent compared to the 2,108 sales in June 2016. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $600,700. This represents a 17.6 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to May 2017.

Attached property sales in June 2017 totalled 668, a decrease of 8.5 per cent compared to the 730 sales in June 2016. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $745,700. This represents a 10.7 per cent increase from June 2016 and a 0.6 per cent increase compared to May 2017.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.

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