Canadian retail sales fell 0.8 per cent to $66.1 billion in May. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 1.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in May.

Retail sales in BC were down by 1.3 per cent in May and fell by 1.6 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 1.2 per cent from the prior month and were up 0.9 percent from May 2023.

These figures are indicative of an overall weakening trend in Canadian goods consumption, with retail sales falling during 4 of the last 5 months. Overall, this pattern supports the argument for a second rate cut by the Bank of Canada in July to promote more economic activity.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian housing starts fell 9 per cent to 241,672 units in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 14 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were up 1 per cent from last month at 52,762 units, while multi-family and others fell 11 per cent to 188,911 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell 12 per cent from last month to 40,808 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 11 per cent to 4,876 units while multi-family starts dropped 15 per cent to 34,085 units. Starts in the province were 38 per cent below the levels from June 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts were up by 5 per cent in Victoria, 54 per cent in Kelowna, and 27 per cent in Abbotsford. Year-to-date starts were down by 18 per cent in Vancouver and by 20 per cent in Nanaimo.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, down from a 2.9 per cent increase in May. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI rose by 0.1 per cent in June. The deceleration in headline CPI was largely driven by declining gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8 per cent in June. The shelter cost index remains the major driver of inflation with the rate of increases higher now (6.2 per cent) than they were this time last year (4.8 per cent). Mortgage interest costs were up 22.3 per cent and rent was up 8.8 per cent from last June. Excluding shelter, consumer prices rose just 1.3 per cent, year over year. Driven by furniture and used cars, durable goods costs fell 1.8 per cent year-over-year in June as supply chains continue to recover. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.9 per cent in May. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to between 2.3 and 2.9 per cent per cent year-over-year in June. 

Canada's inflation report contained some good news mixed in with familiar challenges. The headline year-over-year price change declined in June, reversing May's uptick, and came close to the lowest rate since early 2021. This was achieved in part due to 3.1 per cent month-over-month decline in gasoline prices following an announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it plans to increase production. On the other hand, the year-over-year change in food costs rose for a second consecutive month, halting an optimistic downward trend. CPI-median and CPI-trim are back above the 2 per cent target when measured on a 3-month annualized basis for the second consecutive month. Finally, shelter costs and especially rents remain the most persistent challenge in the CPI and show few clear signs of improvement. Taken together, however, markets considered the report positive news and raised the probability that the Bank of Canada would cut rates next Wednesday to 90 per cent. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Vancouver, BC – July 15, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,082 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in June 2024, a 19 per cent decrease from June 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in June 2024 was up 1 per cent at $998,159 compared to an average price of $988,632 in June 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $7.1 billion, an 18 per cent decline from the same time the previous year.  BC MLS® unit sales were 24 per cent lower than the ten-year average for June.

“Sales activity in June was much softer than the same time last year, with June of 2023 representing the market peak following last summer’s pause in rate hikes,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, both sales and active listings continue to gradually inch upwards, keeping the market in balanced territory.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 2 per cent to $38.6 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales were down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year at 38,639 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.3 per cent to $997,883.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,207,100. This represents a 0.5% increase from June 2023 and a 0.4% decrease from May 2024.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 3.7% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.1% from May 2024.

- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 3.0% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.6% from May 2024.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 1.0% from Jun 2023 and decreased 0.4% from Jun 2023.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.