Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, down from a 2.6 per cent increase in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was unchanged in March. The overall slowdown in headline CPI is largely driven by lower gasoline prices, with the CPI ex-gasoline rising by 2.5 per cent in March. Shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 7.9 per cent, marking the nineteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Similarly, rent was up 5.1 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 5.8 per cent in February. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year, down from 3.0 per cent in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, are at 2.9 per cent and 2.8 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
After a sharp uptick in February, March's CPI report saw headline inflation moderate towards the neutral range of 2.0 per cent. However, the Bank's core measures of inflation continue to linger near the ceiling of their target range, suggesting some underlying upward pressure in prices. Nonetheless, markets remain uncertain about the Bank's decision on Wednesday as Canada braces for the inflationary impacts of tariffs. This report slightly favours the odds of a 25-point rate cut on Wednesday to pre-emptively brace the economy for the damage caused by tariffs. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Vancouver, BC – April 14, 2025.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,917 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems in March 2025, down 9.6 per cent from March 2024. The average MLS® residential price in BC in March 2025 was down 4.8 per cent at $963,323 compared to $1,011,965 in March 2024.

The total sales dollar volume was $5.7 billion, a 13.9 per cent decrease from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 35 per cent lower than the ten-year March average.

“Buyers continued to shift back to the sidelines in March,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The economic uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian goods has some potential buyers hesitant, particularly in the province’s larger markets.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 8.1 per cent to $14.5 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 5.2 per cent year-over-year at 15,160 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also down 3.1 per cent to $959,400.

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Canadian employment fell by 0.2 per cent from the previous month, declining by 33,000 jobs to 20.962 million in March. The employment rate fell by 0.2 points to 60.9 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 6.7 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $36.05 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.2 per cent compared to March of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. rose by 0.2 per cent to 2.944 million, gaining 5,700 jobs in March. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.4 per cent to 1.711 million in March. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.1 points to 6.1 per cent in March. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate fell by 0.6 points to 6.4 per cent in the third month of the year. 

March's jobs report may foreshadow an ongoing downturn in the Canadian labour market as tariff impacts begin permeating through the economy. While this report slightly favours a rate cut, we expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate before evaluating the inflationary impacts of our trade war with the U.S. and their newly announced "reciprocal" tariff policy on 185 other countries.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,190,900. This represents a 0.6 per cent decrease over March 2024 and a 0.5 per cent increase compared to February 2025.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 0.8% from Mar 2024 and increased 0.4% from Feb 2025.

- The benchmark price for townhouses/attached decreased 0.8% from Mar 2024 and increased 0.2% from Feb 2025.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.9% from Mar 2024 and increased 1.0% from Feb 2025.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in January, following a 0.3 per cent increase in December. Service-producing industries grew by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries rose by 1.1 per cent. Thirteen out of twenty major industries expanded from the previous month, led by mining, quarrying, and oil/gas extraction (1.7 per cent), construction (0.7 per cent), and manufacturing (0.8 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was down 3.7 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP was unchanged in February.

As its first rate cut of 2025 transmits through the economy, the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see Canadian economic growth surpassing its projection. Unfortunately, these numbers are likely non-influential in the Bank's next meeting, as they reflect an environment before tariffs were enacted. Given the immense uncertainty surrounding Trump's reciprocal tariffs next week, the Bank is most likely to hold during its next meeting before reassessing how the economy responds to these shocks. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian retail sales decreased by 0.6 per cent to $69.4 billion in January from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 4.2 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, fell by 0.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales decreased by 1.1 per cent in January. 

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.5 per cent in January month-over-month and rose by 5.9 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.8 per cent from the prior month, and increased by 5.2 per cent from January 2024.

Tailwinds from the GST/HST tax holiday weren't enough to continue previous gains in retail activity in January. However, in British Columbia, the tax break has fed into a broader upward trend in retail activity over the past few quarters.  After last week's CPI report, markets continue to expect a hold from the Bank of Canada during its next meeting.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in February, up from a 1.9 per cent increase in January. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.7 points in February. Products affected by the end of the GST/HST tax break saw slower year-over-year price declines compared to previous months, placing upward pressure on headline inflation. Overall, shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 9.0 per cent, marking the eighteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Similarly, rent was up 5.8 per cent in February year-over-year, down from 6.3 per cent in January. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.0 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.2 per cent in January. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, both rose to 2.9 per cent year-over-year. 
 
February's CPI report saw inflation rise by 0.7 points from the previous month, the largest monthly jump in nearly three years. Most of this movement can be attributed to the end of the tax break mid-month, which halted previous downward pressure from several sub-components. Importantly, February saw further increases in the Bank's core measures for a second consecutive month, which now lie near the upper threshold of their target range. Coupled with looming tariffs in April, this report favours the probability of the Bank holding the overnight rate at its current level during their next meeting. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian housing starts fell by 4 per cent to 229,030 units in February at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 12 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts fell by 1 per cent from last month to 56,273 units, while multi-family and other starts dropped by 5 per cent to 172,759 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 22 per cent from last month to 31,913 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell by 17 per cent to 3,994 units, while multi-family starts fell by 24 per cent to 25,735 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 32 per cent below the levels from February 2024. Year-to-date starts are up by 188 per cent in Abbotsford and 4 per cent in Kelowna, while being down by 60 per cent in Nanaimo, 46 per cent in Victoria, and 18 per cent in Vancouver.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.