The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 4,484 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems in December 2024, up 24.7 per cent from December 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in December 2024 was up 5.6 per cent at $1,013,556 compared to $960,057 in December 2023.

The total sales dollar volume was $4.5 billion, a 31.7 per cent increase from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 15 per cent lower than the ten-year December average.
 
“Home sales closed the year on a much stronger note than in 2023,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “A stronger finish to 2024 pushed home sales just above last year’s total, setting up a strong hand-off to 2025.”
 
For all of 2024, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 3.2 per cent to $73.1 billion, compared with year-end 2023. Residential unit sales were up 2.1 per cent year-over-year at 74,434 units, while the average MLS® residential price was also up 1.1 per cent to an average of $982,326 for 2024.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Listed for $759,000

MODERN & sleek, 876 s.f, 2 bed/2 bath condo in New West's dynamic Brewery District neighbourhood. OPEN & bright concept w/stylish kitchen, dining & living room. Kitchen has LUXURY features: s/s appliances, quartz countertops & gas stove. Both bedrooms are decent-sized. 2 balconies, totaling approx 200 s.f. Excellent building amenities incl: party room, outdoor kitchen/bbq & dining area, dog park & dog wash, community garden plots + access to amazing Club Central w/gym, squash, sauna, steam, social kitchen + games room. 2 PETS & RENTALS allowed! 1 parking, 1 locker. Within 5 min walk: Sapperton Skytrain, Royal Columbian Hospital, Save-On Foods, Shoppers, TD Bank & lots of restaurants. This is urban living at its best!

Canadian employment rose by 0.4 per cent from the previous month, growing by 91,000 jobs to 20.738 million in December. The employment rate rose by 0.2 points to 60.8 per cent, while the unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 6.7 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year to $35.77 last month, while total hours worked were up 2.1 per cent from December of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. rose by 0.5 per cent to 2.844 million, with a gain of 14,000 jobs in December. Employment in Metro Vancouver fell 0.1 per cent to 1.601 million in December. The unemployment rate in B.C. rose by 0.3 points to 6.0 per cent in December. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate rose by 0.2 points to 6.5 per cent in the final month of the year. Overall, British Columbia's labour statistics are very weak and have diverged from national patterns, with employment only 0.2 per cent higher than December 2023.

December's jobs data shows a second consecutive month of strong employment growth, while the unemployment rate remains stable, though at a higher-than-desired level. Job growth was more broad-based than in previous months, with 12 out of 16 measured industries finding employment gains. December's report closes the year on a strong note and may signal the onset of an expected economic recovery in 2025. We continue to anticipate that the Bank of Canada will lower its policy rate two more times over the first half of 2025 before pausing to assess the need for further stimulus.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,171,500. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase over December 2023 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to November 2024.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 2.0% from Dec 2023 and is unchanged from Nov 2024.

- The benchmark price for townhouses/attached increased 3.4% from Dec 2023 and decreased 0.3% from Nov 2024.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.1% from Dec 2023 and decreased 0.4% from Nov 2024.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP increased by 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September. Service-producing industries grew by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries rose by 0.9 per cent. October's growth was driven by gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+2.4 per cent), construction (+0.4 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.5 per cent), and real-estate and rental and leasing (+0.5 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was up 6.3 per cent month-over-month. Overall, the Canadian economy exhibited growth in 12 out of 20 industries.  Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in November.

After third-quarter growth that fell short of the Bank of Canada's expectations, Canada's output in October shows some positive signs of consumer activity and builds upon some encouraging trends observed in the previous month. We expect the Bank to cut by 25-basis points at their first two meetings in 2025 and then pausing to assess the need for further stimulus.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.1 points in November. Excluding gasoline, the CPI was unchanged at 2.0 per cent in November. Overall shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 13.2 per cent, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Conversely, rent was up 7.7 per cent in November year-over-year, up from 7.3 per cent in October. In spite of accelerating rent price growth, total shelter costs rose 4.6 per cent in November, down from 4.8 per cent in October. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in October. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged at 2.6 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's CPI report for November marks a stabilization around the midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range. With CPI ex-gasoline remaining relatively steady, November's headline CPI is likely driven by tailwinds from Black Friday and other related sales which partially accounted for lower prices and higher consumption across several sub-sectors. In spite of this stimulus, many of the special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada remained either unchanged or slightly decelerated, indicating lingering weaknesses in consumer spending. Moving into the new year, the Bank has emphasized concerns of decelerating inflation as much as movement in the opposite direction. Given our trade uncertainties with the incoming American administration, coupled with an underperforming economy, the Bank will monitor the last monthly GDP report of 2024 to set the stage for their agenda heading into 2025, namely, the speed and depth at which they continue cutting the overnight rate. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian retail sales rose 0.6 per cent to $67.6 billion in October from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 1.5 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales were unchanged in October. 

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.9 per cent in October month-over-month and up 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.1 per cent from the prior month and 1.1 per cent higher than October 2023.

October's retail sales demonstrate a recovery in Canadian retail activity over the past few months as the Bank continues cutting toward its neutral range. The Bank of Canada will hope that Canadian retail growth serves as a proxy for next week's GDP report as it seeks guidance on whether the economy is rebounding in accordance with its 2025 forecast.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 262,433 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 25 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were 3 per cent higher from last month at 60,781 units, while multi-family and other starts rose by 10 per cent to 201,661 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose 18 per cent from last month to 50,447 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts were mostly unchanged at 4,586 units, while multi-family starts rose by 23 per cent to 44,002 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 28 per cent above the levels from November 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts are up by 46 per cent in Kelowna, while being down by 14 per cent in Vancouver, 16 per cent in Victoria, 8 per cent in Abbotsford, and 7 per cent in Nanaimo.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian real GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in September, after being largely unchanged in August. Goods-producing sectors fell 0.3 per cent, while service-producing industries were up 0.2 per cent. Mining, quarrying and the oil and gas extraction sector (-1.4 per cent) and manufacturing (-0.3 per cent) were the main drivers of downward pressure on growth, and were offset by gains in retail trade (+1 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.9 per cent), and construction (+0.4 per cent). Finally, output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers grew by 3.0 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry also increased by 0.1 per cent in October.

Real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 registered at 1.0 per cent at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. Household spending grew by 0.9 per cent, leading to a 0.2 per cent increase in per capita household expenditures. Growth was also driven by broad-based government spending (+1.1 per cent). Conversely, business investment in machinery fell by 7.8 per cent in the third quarter, strongly attributed to lower spending on aircraft and transportation equipment. Housing investment rose by 0.8 per cent, largely due to higher ownership transfer costs (+4.9 per cent) that arise from resales. However, renovation spending and new construction declined by 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively. Despite higher household consumption, household savings rates reached a 3-year peak at 7.1 per cent, as disposable income grew at nearly double the rate of spending (in nominal terms). On a per capita basis, GDP was down 0.4 per cent in Q3 and marked a sixth consecutive quarterly decline.

Canada saw modest GDP growth in the third quarter, which fell short of the Bank of Canada's most recent quarterly projection of 1.5 per cent growth. The main discrepancies between this report and the Bank's projection are found in lower-than-anticipated business investment and household spending, signalling reluctance among firms and consumers due to more difficult borrowing conditions. In addition, Canadian GDP per capita continues to struggle amidst rapid population growth. This comes in the context of inflation moderating towards the midpoint of its target range, with price appreciation being largely driven by high shelter costs. The labour market remains at cooler levels, with unemployment steadying at around 6.5 per cent. Considering weaker than expected growth, a second consecutive 50-point cut from the Bank seems more likely as they hope to ignite expenditure moving into 2025. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.9 billion in September from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 1.4 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose 0.8 per cent in September. For the third quarter of 2024, retail sales rose by 0.9 per cent overall and by 1.3 per cent in volume terms. 

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.6 per cent in September month-over-month, while down 0.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.2 per cent from the prior month and 0.3 per cent higher than September 2023.

September's retail sales built upon the positive momentum generated in August with respect to Canadian consumption. Growth in both headline and core retail sales—which exclude volatile items—suggests a broad-based recovery in consumer spending, which we expect to strengthen into the winter with the newly announced GST holiday. Moving toward their next meeting, the Bank of Canada will monitor whether GDP growth strengthens in line with September's retail growth, as well as whether employment and CPI inflation stabilize at neutral levels. Positive trends in these areas would propel the Bank back onto its regular trajectory of 25 basis point cuts until reaching their neutral range. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.0 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October, up from a 1.6 per cent increase in September. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.3 points in October. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2 per cent in October, matching the levels of August and September. Shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 14.7 per cent, and rent was up 7.3 per cent from last October, both decreasing from September's numbers of 16.7 and 8.2 per cent, respectively. Overall, shelter costs rose 4.8 per cent year-over-year in October, down from 5.0 per cent in September. Finally, goods costs rose 0.1 per cent, while services costs rose 3.6 per cent year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.4 per cent year-over-year, up from 2.0 per cent in September. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, increased to 2.5 and 2.6 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's CPI report for October marks a return towards the midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range. With CPI ex-gasoline remaining steady, headline growth is likely a function of increased consumer spending across various industries. This is demonstrated through monthly growth in each of the special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada for October. However, current inflation remains slightly below the Bank of Canada's projection. Looking ahead to December's policy meeting, the Bank of Canada faces a delicate balancing act. Given the uncertainty surrounding economic conditions for 2025, particularly around growth prospects, the chance of a second consecutive "jumbo cut" remains on the table. A lot will depend on the upcoming GDP data, with the Bank hoping for signs of stronger economic activity in alignment with their current forecast.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian employment rose by 0.1 percent from the previous month, growing by 15,000 jobs to 20.597 million in October. The employment rate fell by 0.1 points to 60.6 per cent, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.5 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 4.9 per cent year-over-year to $35.76 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.6  per cent from October of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. fell by 0.3 per cent to 2.829 million with a gain of 8,000 jobs in October, marking the first month of provincial job gain since April 2024. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose 1.2 per cent to 1.606 million in October. The unemployment rate in B.C. fell by 0.2 points to 5.8 per cent in October. On a similar trend, Vancouver's unemployment rate fell by 0.5 points from last month to 6.2 per cent.

October's employment statistics, while modestly positive, reflect a slow and steady economic recovery as interest rates continue to fall. Both public and private sector job growth remained relatively unchanged. Only three of sixteen major Canadian industries had a statistically significant change in employment from the previous month, suggesting that firms may continue waiting for friendlier financing/investment conditions before expanding their workforces.  A steady unemployment rate amid weak but still positive hiring activity doesn't necessarily point to another jumbo cut by the Bank of Canada, though the Bank's outlook likely got a little more volatile given the results of the US election.  How the Bank interprets the potential ramifications of a new Trump administration on the Canadian economy, along with incoming data on October inflation, may push the Bank toward more aggressive rate cuts. Current odds in financial markets are slightly tilted toward a 50-basis point cut in December. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,172,200. This represents a 1.9 per cent decrease over October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 0.3% from Oct 2023 and decreased 1.0% from Sep 2024.

- The benchmark price for townhouses/attached decreased 1.6% from Oct 2023 and decreased 0.6% from Sep 2024.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.3% from Oct 2023 and decreased 0.7% from Sep2024.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.