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The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region* totalled 1,109 in April 2020, a 39.4 per cent decrease from the 1,829 sales recorded in April 2019, and a 56.1 per cent decrease from the 2,524 homes sold in March 2020. Last month’s sales were 62.7 per cent below the 10-year April sales average and was the lowest total for the month since 1982. 

 

“Predictably, the number of home sales and listings declined in April given the physical distancing measures in place,” Colette Gerber, REBGV’s president-elect said. “People are, however, adapting. They’re working with their Realtors to get information, advice and to explore their options so that they’re best positioned in the market during and after this pandemic.”  

 

Realtors have been named an essential service by the provincial government to help the home buying and selling community meet their housing needs during the pandemic. “We’re seeing more innovation in today’s market, with Realtors using different technology to showcase homes virtually, assess neighbourhood amenities with their clients and handle paperwork electronically,” Gerber said.  

 

There were 2,313 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April. This represents a 59.7 per cent decrease compared to the 5,742 homes listed in April 2019 and a 47.9 per cent decrease compared to March 2020 when 4,436 homes were listed. The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,389, a 34.6 per cent decrease compared to April 2019 (14,357) and a 2.3 per cent decrease compared to March 2020 (9,606). 

 

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2020 is 11.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 10 per cent for detached homes, 14.7 per cent for townhomes, and 12.4 per cent for apartments. Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 

 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,036,000. This represents a 2.5 per cent increase over April 2019 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to March 2020. “Home prices have held relatively steady in our region since the COVID-19 situation worsened in March,” Gerber said.   

 

Sales of detached homes in April 2020 reached 388, a 33.8 per cent decrease from the 586 detached sales recorded in April 2019. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,462,100. This represents a 2.3 per cent increase from April 2019 and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to March 2020. 

 

Sales of apartment homes reached 503 in April 2020, a 43.2 per cent decrease compared to the 885 sales in April 2019. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $685,500. This represents a 2.7 per cent increase from April 2019 and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to March 2020. 

 

Attached home sales in April 2020 totalled 218, a 39.1 per cent decrease compared to the 358 sales in April 2019. The benchmark price of an attached home is $796,800. This represents a 2.8 per cent increase from April 2019 and a 0.6 per cent increase compared to March 2020. 



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.



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After three months of growth, Canadian real GDP was essentially flat in February as disruptions to education services and  the transportation and warehousing sector stalled the economy.  Excluding those sectors, economic growth was 0.2 per cent with 13 of 20 sub-sectors recording increased output. Activity in the real estate sector rose 5.9 per cent in February, the largest increase since December 2017.

Statistics Canada has also made a flash estimate for March 2020 real GDP which it estimates declined a staggering 9 per cent on a monthly basis due to the COVID-19  pandemic and associated mitigation measures. If that estimate is accurate, first quarter real GDP will contract by close to 10 per cent on an annualized basis. As dramatic as the first quarter decline appears, it will almost certainly be quickly overshadowed by what most expect to be a 30 per cent or more annualized decline in the second quarter.  Note that those are annualized estimates. The actual peak-to-trough decline in Canadian real GDP is estimated at 10-15 per cent before things begin to normalize and growth rebounds in the third and fourth quarter of this year.



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Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales were up by 0.3% in February at $52 billion. The rise in February was driven by auto dealers and general merchandise stores. Sales were up in 6 of 11 sub-sectors, representing 63% of retail sales. Some retailers reported that both the rail blockades and COVID-19 negatively impacted their sales in February. In contrast, sales were positive at stores selling sporting goods, hobby, book and music, building material and garden equipment, and health and personal care. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 1.2% at $7.4 billion in February. Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted change shows a different picture. Retail sales in February were down by 0.1% from the previous month in half of the sub-sectors, notably at general merchandise stores (-11%), clothing (-5%) and electronics/appliances (-5%). Meanwhile, Vancouver reported a monthly increase of 1.2% in retail sales. Compared to the same time last year, BC retail sales were up by 6.4% in February.

Given that the majority of physical distancing measures and store closures were not implemented until mid-March, the impact of COVID-19 on retail sales will be more apparent in next month's data release. We can expect a steep drop in dining and entertainment, accommodations and at gas stations, while increases will likely be reported at grocery stores and in e-commerce. Compared to the same time last year, e-commerce reported an increase of 18% in February, accounting for about 3.6% of total retail sales in Canada (excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers). In March, many Canadian retailers reported opening or expanded their e-commerce platforms.



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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9 per cent in March year-over-year, down from a 2.2 per cent increase in February. This marked the largest decline in the CPI since the measure began in 1992. Energy prices were the main drag on inflation, excluding this category, national CPI rose by 1.7 per cent year-over-year. The downward pressure on gas prices began before the spread of COVID-19, but were exacerbated as global demand dropped (e.g., limitation on international travel), while supply continued to increase. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation fell 0.2 percentage points, averaging 1.8 per cent in March. Prices rose in six of the eight major components, led by shelter (+1.9%). In contrast, prices fell for transportation (-1.2%) and recreation, education and reading (-0.5%). 

In B.C., CPI grew to 1.2 per cent year-over-year, following a 2.4 per cent increase in the previous month. The drag on price growth was primarily due to a fall in gas prices (-14.5%) and to a lesser extent, transportation (-3.2%). Meanwhile, price growth was reported in clothing (2.2%) and household furnishings (1.1%). 

Statistics Canada notes that the March CPI was largely unaffected by COVID-19, as the majority of prices were collected prior to the implementation of domestic physical distancing measures. As such, we can expect to see steep drops in prices in next month's CPI report. 



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The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight policy rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers to be its effective lower bound. The Bank also announced additional new measures to support the Canadian financial system. In its statement, the bank noted that efforts necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide.  The bank judges the current outlook to be too uncertain to provide a complete forecast, though it expects real GDP growth to decline 1-3 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 and a further 15-30 per cent (annualized) drop in the second quarter.

To offset any potential dysfunction in financial markets and to keep credit channels operating smoothly, the Bank will continue its purchase of Government of Canada as well as provincial government, and even investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market.  These measures, along with those implemented by the Federal Government, will help to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers at all levels, from large corporations, to small businesses to households.



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Vancouver, BC – April 15, 2020. 


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,717 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2020, an increase of 17.2 per cent from March 2019. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $789,548, a 15.1 per cent increase from $685,892 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in March was $5.3 billion, a 35 per cent increase over 2019.

“Provincial housing markets started the month very strong before the COVID-19 pandemic put a halt to activity,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Activity will slow considerably in April as households and the real estate sector implement measures necessary to mitigate the spread of this virus.”

“While we don’t know when this unprecedented period will end, markets will be boosted by pent-up demand and historically low interest rates when it does,” added Ogmundson. “The ultimate strength of the recovery will depend on how long the economy remains effectively shut down, as well as the efficacy of federal and provincial measures to bridge households through the financial difficulties brought on by the pandemic.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 37.1 per cent to $12.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales increased 21.7 per cent to 16,866 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 12.6 per cent to $763,031. 



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Canadian housing starts decreased by 7.3% m/m in March to 195,174 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The decrease was broad-based with starts down in 7 of 10 provinces, signalling early signs of the impact of COVID-19 on construction activity. The trend in national housing starts fell to a still healthy average of 205,000 units SAAR over the past six months. 

In BC, housing starts fell by 20% m/m to 34,014 units SAAR, following a 44% rise in the previous month. The decrease was entirely driven by multi-units (-25%), while singles increased (1%). Given the rapidly evolving circumstances brought on by COVID-19, Statistics Canada released early estimates of March building permits for select regions (covering 29% of total building permit values). Early estimates show permits falling by 23% in Canadian cities compared to the same time last year. The strongest declines were in Ontario (-51%), BC (-27%) and Quebec (-38%), likely due to recent announcements in Ontario and Quebec to halt many construction projects. Meanwhile in BC, earlier reported cases of COVID-19 compared to other regions likely started to slow construction intentions. In the near term, new construction activity will continue to slow across the country as physical distancing measures persist.  

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

- Housing starts in Vancouver were up by 3% in March to 21,236 units SAAR, driven entirely by multi-units (6%), while singles were down (-10%). Compared to last year in March, housing starts were up by 1%.  

- In Victoria, housing starts were down by 79% m/m to 1,226 units SAAR, which follows last month's strong showing of 5,931 units. Compared to a year ago in March, housing starts were down by 41%.  

- In Kelowna, housing starts decreased by 61% m/m to 1,504, following a 1,129% increase in the previous month. Starts were up by 161% in the region compared to the same time last year. 

- Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were down by 79% at 669 units SAAR, following last month's 2,738 units. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was down by 64%. 



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I have sold a property at 705 3520 CROWLEY DR in Vancouver.
OPEN & bright bachelor suite in VANCOUVER! Very efficient 412 sq ft, w/new kitchen w/s-s appliances & granite c-tops + in-suite laundry. Good-sized balcony facing west. Great VIEWS of Gaston Park & city & peek-a-boo mountain view. Very well-maintained building & proactive strata. Amenities incl: gym & lounge & outdoor mini park. Excellent location, everything is within 5-10 min walk: Skytrain, groceries, banks, cafes, parks, etc. 2 pets & rentals allowed (no AirBnB). Showings by appointment only, thanks.
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Metro Vancouver’s* housing market saw steady home buyer demand to begin March and a levelling off of activity as the month went on and concerns about the COVID-19 outbreak intensified. 

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,524 in March 2020, a 46.1 per cent increase from the 1,727 sales recorded in March 2019, and a 17.4 per cent increase from the 2,150 homes sold in February 2020. 

 

Last month’s sales were 19.9 per cent below the 10-year March sales average. “The first two weeks of the month were the busiest days of the year for our region with heightened demand and multiple offers becoming more common,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said, “Like other aspects of our lives, this changed as concerns over the COVID-19 situation in our province grew.” 

 

Daily residential sales on the region’s MLS® were 138 on average in the first ten business days of the month. In the final ten business days of the month, the daily average declined to 93 sales. “Many of the sales recorded in March were in process before the provincial government declared a state of emergency. We’ll need more time to pass to fully understand the impact that the pandemic is having on the housing market,” Smith said. 

 

“In recent weeks, REALTORS® have been working to help and guide their clients through this uncertain period. Many people have understandably chosen to put their home buying or selling plans on hold for now. Other people have more urgent housing needs and we’re trying to work with them to address these needs in the safest and most responsible way possible.” 

 

There were 4,436 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in March 2020. This represents a 10.4 per cent decrease compared to the 4,949 homes listed in March 2019 and a 10.8 per cent increase compared to February 2020 when 4,002 homes were listed. 

 

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,606, a 24.8 per cent decrease compared to March 2019 (12,774) and a 4.5 per cent increase compared to February 2020 (9,195).

 

“Realtors were named among the province’s list of essential services last week,” Smith said. “This means that we have a responsibility to do what we can to help residents meet their housing and shelter needs while strictly following the most up-to-date public health orders and physical distancing requirements from our health officials and government agencies.” 

 

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2020 is 26.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 21.1 per cent for detached homes, 33 per cent for townhomes, and 28.9 per cent for apartments. Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 

 

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,033,700. This represents a 2.1 per cent increase over March 2019, and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to February 2020. 

 

Sales of detached homes in March 2020 reached 852, a 61.1 per cent increase from the 529 detached sales recorded in March 2019. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,450,700. This represents a 0.7 per cent increase from March 2019, and a 1.2 per cent increase compared to February 2020. 

 

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,179 in March 2020, a 35.1 per cent increase compared to the 873 sales in March 2019. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $687,000. This represents a 2.9 per cent increase from March 2019, and a 1.4 per cent increase compared to February 2020.

 

Attached home sales in March 2020 totalled 493, a 51.7 per cent increase compared to the 325 sales in March 2019. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $791,800. This represents a 2.5 per cent increase from March 2019, and a 0.9 per cent increase compared to February 2020.



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


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The Canadian economy grew  0.1 per cent on a monthly basis in January as weather and labour disputes offset more positive developments in some sectors.  Before the abrupt change in the world economy due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Canadian economy was set to grow a solid 1.8 per cent in the first quarter.  We may start to see the impact of COVID-19 starting with February's GDP data though the impact will mostly be observed in April, which is likely to show an unprecedented decline in economic activity.

Once the outbreak is contained, the Canadian economy should post a strong recovery due to pent-up demand, large amounts of fiscal stimulus and historically low interest rates.



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For the second time this month, the Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight policy rate before its regularly scheduled announcement date, taking the overnight rate down a further 50 basis points to 0.25 per cent.  That level is what the Bank considers its effective lower bound, meaning it can not reduce rates further without potentially disrupting key short-term funding markets.

The Bank also announced two new programs to ensure the continued smooth functioning of credit markets and to promote credit availability.  The first, the Commercial Paper Purchase Program, is targeted at alleviating strains in the short-term funding market  and the second entails the Bank purchasing Government of Canada bonds in the secondary market. The latter program is a type of what is generally called "quantitative easing" though the Bank's program is targeted at all maturities, rather than longer term yields as in traditional quantitative easing.


All of these actions represent a serious and significant amount of firepower aimed at keeping the Canadian financial system and credit markets functioning during this extraordinary time.  If successful, we should see currently elevated risk spreads on mortgage products start to decline, reversing recent increases in Canadian mortgage rates.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


 
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A weak report to start off 2020. Seasonally-adjusted Canadian retail sales were up by 0.4% in January at $52 billion. The rise in January was driven by auto dealers and gas stations. Minus these two sub-sectors and sales were down 0.3% in the month. Sales were up in 4 of 11 sub-sectors, representing 48% of retail sales. The impact of COVID-19 on the retail sector will become more evident in the months to come. Statistics Canada notes that respondent comments for February shows that business activities have been impacted. 

Regionally, 8 of 10 provinces reported monthly increases in January. Notable increases were reported in Quebec (1.7%) and Alberta (1.6%). In contrast, retail sales were down in Ontario (-0.8%).

In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were unchanged at $7.3 billion in January. Looking at the non-seasonally adjusted change shows a different picture. Retail sales in January were down from the previous month in all sub-sectors, except at auto dealers and gas stations. Meanwhile, Vancouver reported a monthly decrease of 1% in retail sales. Compared to the same time last year, BC retail sales were down by 0.4% in January.



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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.2 per cent in February year-over-year, down from a 2.4 per cent increase in January. Excluding the impact of gasoline prices, national CPI rose by 2.0 per cent year-over-year, matching last month's increase. Gas prices rose less on a year-over-year basis as a result of lower global demand following the COVID-19 spread, and tensions between oil-producing countries. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation was unchanged, averaging 2.0 per cent in February. Prices rose in seven of eight major components, led by transportation (4.4%) and shelter (2.3%). 

In B.C., CPI grew to 2.4 per cent year-over-year, slightly above last month's increase of 2.3 per cent. Notable increases in prices were for recreation (2.0%) and gas (1.7%), where the increase for gas was largely due to the regional Pacific Northwest market. In contrast, prices for food was the only componenet to report a price decline (-0.5%). 

Given recent events around the spread and containment efforts of COVID-19 (e.g., temporary closure of stores and service providers), continued tensions between oil-producing countries, the lowering of interest rates, and disruptions to global supply chains, we expect significant impact on prices going forward. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


 


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I have listed a new property at 705 3520 CROWLEY DR in Vancouver.
OPEN & bright bachelor suite in VANCOUVER! Very efficient 412 sq ft, w/new kitchen w/s-s appliances & granite c-tops + in-suite laundry. Good-sized balcony facing west. Great VIEWS of Gaston Park & city & peek-a-boo mountain view. Very well-maintained building & proactive strata. Amenities incl: gym & lounge & outdoor mini park. Excellent location, everything is within 5-10 min walk: Skytrain, groceries, banks, cafes, parks, etc. Pets & rentals allowed! Viewings by appointment only, no Open Houses, thanks.
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Today, in an emergency inter-meeting policy action, the Bank of Canada again lowered its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75 per cent. This follows the previous cut to 1.25 per cent on March 4, 2020. This move is in response to the spread of COVID-19, which according to the Bank is "having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada's economy". In its statement, the Bank noted that lower interest rates will help to support confidence in households by lowering borrowing costs for new purchases and for those renewing their mortgages. Additionally, lower prices for oil will weigh heavily on the economy. 

We expect this rate cut to be followed by an additional reduction of the Bank's overnight rate at its April 2020 meeting. 



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Canadian housing starts decreased by 1.9% m/m in February to 210,069 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The decrease was driven by Quebec. The trend in national housing starts fell, averaging about 209,000 units SAAR over the past six months. 

In BC, housing starts rose by 52% m/m to 39,968 units SAAR, which follows last month's 39% decline. Increases were reported in both the single detached (23%) and multi-unit (66%) segments. The value of building permits in the province also increased, suggesting housing starts will continue to pick-up. Compared to the same time last year, provincial starts were up by 3%.  

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

- Housing starts in Vancouver were up by 56% in February to 20,573 units SAAR. The increase was driven mostly by the multi-unit segment (64%), while singles were also up (27%). Compared to last year in February, housing starts were down by 18%.  

- In Victoria, housing starts were up by 778% m/m to 5,897 units SAAR, which follows last month's very low 672 units. Compared to a year ago in February, housing starts were up by 42%.  

- In Kelowna, housing starts increased by 144% m/m to 3,883 units SAAR. The increase was due to the volatile multi-unit segment. Year-over-year starts were up by 1,129% in the region. 

- Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were down by 9% at 2,727 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was up by 82%.  



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Canadian employment was little changed in February, increasing by 30,000 jobs (0.2%). The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.6%, as more people searched for work. This report does not yet account for impacts arising from COVID-19 due to the survey's timing. 

Regionally, increases were primarily in Quebec (20,000), Alberta (11,000), Nova Scotia (3,700) and Manitoba (3,200). In February, more people were employed in wholesale and retail trade, in manufacturing, and in information, culture and recreation. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was up by 1.3%.   

Meanwhile, employment in BC fell by 6,500 jobs (-0.3%) in February, following last month's increase of 3,400 jobs. Part-time work was the main driver of the decrease. By industry, employment losses were reported in two-thirds of the sub-sectors. The provincial unemployment rate rose by 0.5 percentage points to 5.0%. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC is down by 0.4% (11,400) jobs. 



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The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight rate by 50 basis points this morning to 1.25 per cent.  This move is part of a coordinated action by global central banks to guard against the negative consequences of the Coronavirus outbreak.  In its statement, the Bank noted that although the Canadian economy is operating near potential and inflation is at its 2 per cent target, the Coronavirus is a material and negative shock to the Canadian and global outlook.

Economic growth in Canada slowed sharply to end 2019 and supply chain disruptions due to both Coronavirus and interrupted rail service are expected to slow growth further in the first quarter of this year.

Canadian bond yields have  declined significantly with 5-year bond yields falling below 1% for the first time since 2017.  Both variable and 5-year fixed qualifying mortgage rates will likely follow bond yields lower,  though elevated risk spreads may delay banks and other lenders in lowering mortgage rates in the immediate term.



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The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.