Canadian real GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in March, after declining by 0.2 per cent in February. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.2 per cent, while service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent. Sectoral growth was led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (2.2 per cent), construction (0.5 per cent), and retail trade (0.8 per cent). Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers fell by 4.5 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry increased by 0.1 per cent in April.

Real GDP increased by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, registering an annualized growth rate of 2.2 per cent. Growth in household spending slowed from the previous quarter to 0.3 per cent, leading to a 0.1 per cent uptick in per capita household expenditures. Growth was driven by increased trade, with exports of goods and services (1.6 per cent) outpacing imports (1.1 per cent). Investment into both residential and non-residential structures declined by 2.8 and 1.6 per cent in the first quarter, respectively. Meanwhile, investment in machinery and equipment increased by 5.3 per cent in the first quarter.  The household savings rate fell from 6.0 per cent to 5.7 per cent in the first quarter, as disposable income growth was outpaced by nominal household expenditures, while investment income declined. On a per capita basis, GDP rose 0.4 per cent in Q1 after increasing by 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter. 

Tariff-avoidant behaviour from Canadian households, businesses, and our trading partners alike propelled Canada's GDP growth in the first quarter above the Bank of Canada's most recent projection. Growth in the first quarter was largely driven by rising exports, as US firms and households purchased goods ahead of tariff implementation. As central bankers continue to worry about the economic damage caused by volatile trade policy, this report could influence the Bank of Canada towards a hold during their next meeting to curb the inflationary risks of tariffs. Moving forward, the Bank of Canada will be closely watching second-quarter data for signs of a weakening economy and broader price pressures due to current tariffs and the uncertainty over future trade policy.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.