Canadian real GDP inched up 0.1 per cent in February, following a 0.6 per cent jump in January. Both goods-producing and services-providing sectors of the economy grew 0.1 per cent. Growth was led by the public sector (+0.2 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (+0.6 per cent), and construction activity (+0.3 per cent). Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy declined 0.1 per cent in March, implying an annualized growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.

On the heels of unexpectedly high real GDP growth in January, February's low figure, alongside preliminary data indicating a slight contraction in March, appears more consistent with the Bank of Canada's expectations for slowing economic growth in 2023. Growth was softer than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, supporting the Bank of Canada's 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes, and ignoring January, this slowness appears to be continuing in February and March. Due to the long lag of monetary policy, the effects of last year's tightening are still working their way through the economy, and further slowing in GDP and the labour market is anticipated in the second half of 2023. This slowing of growth is likely good news for inflation, which has been trending close to the bank's 2 per cent target in recent months. The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is on June 7th.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in February to $66.3 billion. Sales fell in 4 of 9 subsectors, but the decrease was led by lower sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors (-5.0 per cent) and general merchandise retailers (-1.6 per cent). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.1 per cent. In volume terms, sales fell 0.7 per cent in January. 

In BC, seasonally adjusted sales fell 3.3 per cent in February. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were down 0.3 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales were down 4.4 per cent month-over-month and 2.4 per cent year-over-year. 

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Canadian housing starts fell 11 per cent to 213,865 units in March at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 12 per cent from March of 2022. Single-detached housing starts fell 12 per cent to 56,468 units, while multi-family and others fell 11 per cent to 157,395 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose by 35 per cent in March to 51,564 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 10 per cent m/m to 4,814 units while multi-family starts rose 49 per cent to 43,180 units. Starts in the province were 60 per cent above the levels from March 2022. Starts were up by 18k in Vancouver and 0.3k in Victoria, while declining by 2.6k in Kelowna and 0.8k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend fell 0.7 per cent to 48.6k in BC in November. 

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, a decrease from the 5.2 per cent rate in February. This large drop was mostly due to base year effects; the CPI was rising quickly this month last year and fuel prices in particular are substantially down from a year ago. Grocery prices continue to rise quickly, up 9.7 per cent from last year, following seven consecutive months of double-digit increases. Mortgage interest costs were up 26.4 per cent year-over-year, the fastest pace on record, as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. In contrast, the Homeowner's Replacement Cost, which tracks home prices, continued to slow, increasing 1.7 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 3.3 per cent in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.1 per cent in March. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year.

There continue to be encouraging signs that the bout of rapid price appreciation that began in February of last year is waning. Although food prices and mortgage interest costs continue to rise quickly, most other categories in the index are trending back toward normal price trends. Indeed, excluding mortgage costs, the year-over-year change in CPI was just 3.6 per cent. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each ticked downwards for a fourth month in a row. The three-month annualized change in seasonally-adjusted CPI is now well within the bank's 1-3 per cent target range, hitting 2.1 per cent in March. Still, although year-over-year price appreciation may be moderating, at 4.3 per cent it is still well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. While the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second consecutive meeting in April, the Bank could change course if inflation does not continue to cool or if the economy dips toward recession. 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,118 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in March 2023, a decrease of 38.3 per cent from March 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was 961,451 down 11.6 per cent compared to the average price of close to $1.1 million in March 2022, recorded near the market's peak. The total sales dollar volume was $6.8 billion, representing a 45.5 per cent decrease from the same time last year. 

“The BC housing market is currently characterized by slow sales but also still very low levels of listings,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Consequently, even though home sales remain about 20 per cent below normal levels for this time of year, the average home price in BC has now risen two months in a row, reaching its highest level since May 2022 as markets tighten due to a lack of supply.”
  

Active listings in the province are up 25 per cent compared to this time last year but have fallen for the second straight month in the wake of a modest recovery in home sales and continued weak new listings activity.

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Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.08 million in March, up by 35,000 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows. Employment gains were concentrated in transportation and warehousing (+41,000); business, building and other support services (+31,000); and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+19,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.3 per cent from March of last year, while total hours worked were up 1.6 per cent year-over-year. 

Employment in BC was unchanged in March, along with Metro Vancouver. However, the unemployment rate in BC fell to 4.5 per cent and in Metro Vancouver to 4.8 per cent. This reversed the jump in unemployment last month caused by increased labour force participation. Only Quebec currently has a lower unemployment rate than BC. 

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The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,143,900. This represents a 1.8% increase from February 2023 and a 9.5% decrease from March 2022.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes increased 2.7% from Feb 2023 and decreased 11.2% from Mar 2022.

- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 1.7% from Feb 2023 and decreased 7.8% from Mar 2022.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 0.7% from Feb 2023 and decreased 4.6% from Mar 2022.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP jumped 0.5 per cent in January, falling a 0.1 per cent contraction in December. The rise in GDP was spread across both goods-producing industries (+0.4 per cent) and services-producing industries (+0.6 per cent). Growth was led by a rebound in oil sands extraction after unplanned maintenance in December, coal exports to China, durable goods manufacturing, and construction activity. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.2 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.3 per cent in February.

The large jump in GDP in January bucked expectations of continued slowing as tighter monetary policy worked its way through the Canadian economy. Growth was softer than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, supporting the Bank of Canada's 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes. In contrast, this month's strong number would normally bias the Bank of Canada toward additional monetary tightening, but progress on bringing down inflation, alongside the lingering uncertainty stemming from bank failures in the United States, will likely keep the Bank on hold. With employment markets remaining tight but inflation appearing to soften, the Bank will be weighing the evidence before its next rate announcement on April 12th.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.