Canadian real GDP rose 0.1 per cent in September, up for the eighth consecutive month. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.3 per cent while services-producing industries were essentially flat. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 2.8 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was unchanged in October.

Growth in the third quarter of 2022 registered 2.9 per cent at an annualized rate from the prior quarter, rising for the fifth consecutive quarter. Businesses continued to expand their inventories, while retail and wholesale trade sectors recorded higher stocks of motor vehicles. Housing investment fell 4.1 per cent on higher interest rates, as home renovations (-6.6 per cent) and resale activities (-13.8 per cent) were down for the second and third consecutive quarters respectively. In contrast, new construction (+2.4 per cent) and business investment in non-residential structures (+2.8 per cent) both rose. Exports were up 2.1 per cent on higher oil production while household spending edged down 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, the first decline since the second quarter of 2021. 

GDP growth in the third quarter, though beating the Bank of Canada's expectations, continues to show signs of slowing. The slowdown in GDP growth will likely continue into 2023 as the bank continues and then perhaps concludes its tightening cycle. The Bank is expected to raise its overnight rate again at its upcoming rate announcement on December 8th, but analysts expect the pace of hikes to slow following that meeting. Currently at 3.75 per cent, we expect the overnight rate to increase another 50 to 100 basis points. GDP growth will remain slow, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing, while the bank continues to increase rates.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Listed at $698,800:

BIG, BRIGHT and in impeccable condition! This 1076 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath, north-east corner unit in coveted STIRLING PLACE has lovely views & an open, efficient floor plan, w/many UPDATES incl: new laminate flooring & paint throughout, new S/S kitchen appliances, new screen doors & ceiling fans. Stays WARM in the cooler weather with a gas fireplace & has 2 BALCONIES. Well-managed building w/very proactive strata, 680k in CRF & new electric vehicle charging installed in parkade! Amenities incl: club room, gym, workshop, etc. CONVENIENT location in Uptown w/health services, schools, dining, shopping, banks, etc, all within 1-3 blocks. Directly across Royal City Centre Mall. Comes w/1 parking & 1 locker. No pets, no rentals allowed. 

Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales fell 0.5 per cent in September to $61.1 billion. Sales fell in 7 of 11 subsectors, but were led by lower sales at food and beverage stores (-1.3 per cent) and gas stations (-2.4 per cent). Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and motor vehicle and parts dealers, fell 0.4 per cent in September. In volume terms, sales were down 0.1 per cent. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales fell 2 per cent in September. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3.1 per cent in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales fell 3.8 per cent month-over-month and were up 3.5 per cent year-over-year. 

In September, Canadian e-commerce sales fell 3.3 per cent to $3.4 billion, corresponding to 5.7 per cent of retail sales. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, but is lower than during core months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Listed at $698,800:

BIG, BRIGHT and in impeccable condition! This 1076 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath, north-east corner unit in coveted STIRLING PLACE has lovely views & an open, efficient floor plan, w/many UPDATES incl: new laminate flooring & paint throughout, new S/S kitchen appliances, new screen doors & ceiling fans. Stays WARM in the cooler weather with a gas fireplace & has 2 BALCONIES. Well-managed building w/very proactive strata, 680k in CRF & new electric vehicle charging installed in parkade! Amenities incl: club room, gym, workshop, etc. CONVENIENT location in Uptown w/health services, schools, dining, shopping, banks, etc, all within 1-3 blocks. Directly across Royal City Centre Mall. Comes w/1 parking & 1 locker. No pets, no rentals allowed. 

Canadian housing starts fell by 31.8k (-10.6 per cent) to 267.1k units in October at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up from October of 2021 (11.5 per cent). Single-detached housing starts fell 4 per cent to 72.8k, while multi-family and others fell 13 per cent to 194.3k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 14 per cent in October to 46.6k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 4 per cent m/m to 7.7k units while multi-family starts fell 17 per cent to 35k units. Starts in the province were 29.5 per cent above the levels from October 2021. Starts were down by 6.1k in Vancouver, 1.1k in Abbotsford, and 0.6k in Kelowna, but were up by 4.1k in Victoria. The 6-month moving average trend fell 2.3 per cent to 49.3k in BC in October. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,242 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in October 2022, a decrease of 45.5 per cent from October 2021. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $932,979, a 3.1 per cent decrease from $963,011 recorded in October 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 47.2 per cent decline from the same time last year. 

“Sales activity remains slow across the province and inventories appear to be plateauing,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While prices have fallen from peak levels reached in early 2022, average prices have recently leveled off.”
  

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 26.3 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $73.3 billion. Residential unit sales were down 33 per cent to 72,824 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 10 per cent to $1.01 million.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 6.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October, a rate of change equal to the prior month. After falling for the prior three months, a rise in gasoline prices in October kept the CPI steady year-over-year. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 6.2 per cent year over year in October, down from 6.3 per cent last month. Rising interest rates also contributed to an increase in mortgage interest costs, which was up 11.2 per cent year-over-year as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. Slowing increases in food prices, meanwhile, dampened overall CPI growth. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.6 per cent in October. In BC, consumer prices rose 7.8 per cent year-over-year, up from 7.7 per cent last month. Average hourly wages grew 5.6 per cent year-over-year in October, indicating a decline in purchasing power. 

October's CPI numbers continued to suggest that inflation may be slowing. Despite higher gasoline prices, slowing increases in food prices kept the annual rate of change in the CPI stable. Core inflation, however, remains well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target and will need to decline significantly over the next several months before the Bank rethinks its current tightening policy. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Listed at $698,800:

BIG, BRIGHT and in impeccable condition! This 1076 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath, north-east corner unit in coveted STIRLING PLACE has lovely views & an open, efficient floor plan, w/many UPDATES incl: new laminate flooring & paint throughout, new S/S kitchen appliances, new screen doors & ceiling fans. Stays WARM in the cooler weather with a gas fireplace & has 2 BALCONIES. Well-managed building w/very proactive strata, 670k in CRF & new electric vehicle charging installed in parkade! Amenities incl: club room, gym, workshop, etc. CONVENIENT location in Uptown w/health services, schools, dining, shopping, banks, etc, all within 1-3 blocks. Directly across Royal City Centre Mall. Comes w/1 parking & 1 locker. No pets, no rentals allowed. 

Canadian employment rose by 108,000 (0.6 per cent) to 19.656 million in October. The Canadian unemployment rate remained steady from last month at 5.2 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows. Average hourly wages were up 5.6 per cent from this time last year. Wage gains remain below the inflation rate, however, which hit 6.9 per cent year-over-year in the most-recent data. Total hours worked were up 2.2 per cent year-over-year. 

Employment in BC rose by 0.4 per cent to 2.762 million in October, while Metro Vancouver's employment rose by 0.3 per cent month over month. BC's unemployment rate fell in October to 4.2 per cent, just shy of the all-time low, while Metro Vancouver's rate fell to 4.4 per cent. Among the provinces, only Quebec currently has a lower unemployment rate. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,148,900. This represents a 0.6% decrease from September 2022 and a 2.1% increase from September 2021.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.7% from Sep 2022 and increased 1.6% from Oct 2021.

- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 0.5% from Sep 2022 and increased 7.1% from Oct 2021.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 0.2% from Sep 2022 and increased 5.1% from Oct 2021.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

List Price: $699,900.

SPOTLESS and in excellent condition! This LARGE 1076 sq ft, 2 bed/2 bath, north-east corner unit in coveted STIRLING PLACE has lovely views & stays COOL in the summer. Open, efficient floor plan, w/many UPDATES incl: new laminate flooring & paint throughout, new S/S kitchen appliances, new screen doors & ceiling fans. Gas fireplace for cooler days & 2 BALCONIES.

Well-managed building w/very proactive strata, 650k in CRF & new EV-ready stalls in parkade! Amenities incl: club room, gym, workshop, etc. CONVENIENT location in Uptown w/health services, schools, dining, shopping, banks, etc, all within 1-3 blocks. Directly across Royal City Centre Mall. Comes w/1 parking & 1 locker. No pets, no rentals allowed.

Canadian GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent in August, following similar increases in June and July. Growth in services-producing industries (+0.3 per cent) offset declines in goods-producing industries (-0.3 per cent) as GDP grew in 14 of 20 subsectors. Canadian real GDP is roughly 2.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy grew again by 0.1 per cent in September. GDP from the offices of real estate agents and brokers dropped 2.1 per cent in August, the sixth consecutive decline, as rising interest rates continued to restrain home sales. 

GDP growth in recent months, though still positive, is showing signs of slowing. We are currently tracking Q3 real GDP growth at just 1.5 per cent, or about half the rate realized over the first half of 2022. That slowdown will likely continue as the Bank continues its tightening cycle, particularly in interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. The Bank raised its overnight rate in October to 3.75 per cent and the final destination for the overnight rate may be around 4 per cent or above. However, with the rate now higher than the bank's estimate of the neutral rate, meaning monetary policy is no longer stimulative, increases in the overnight rate are expected to slow in subsequent announcements. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.