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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S December 2023 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,168,700. This represents a 1.4% decrease from November 2023 and a 5.0% increase from December 2022.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.9% from Nov 2023 and increased 7.7% from Dec 2022.


- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 1.8% from Nov 2023 and increased 6.4% from Dec 2022.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 1.5% from Oct 2023 and increased 5.6% from Dec 2022.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Metro Vancouver’s* housing market closed out 2023 with balanced market conditions, but the year-end totals mask a story of surprising resilience in the face of the highest borrowing costs seen in over a decade:


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 26,249 in 2023, a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 29,261 sales recorded in 2022, and a 41.5 per cent decrease from the 44,884 sales in 2021. Last year’s sales total was 23.4 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (34,272). 


“You could miss it by just looking at the year-end totals, but 2023 was a strong year for the Metro Vancouver housing market considering that mortgage rates were the highest they’ve been in over a decade,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “In our 2023 forecast, we called for modest price increases throughout the year while most other forecasters were predicting price declines. The fact that we ended the year with five-per-cent-plus gains in home prices across all market segments demonstrates that Metro Vancouver remains an attractive and desirable destination, and elevated borrowing costs alone aren’t enough to dissuade buyers determined to get into this market.” 


Properties listed on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver totalled 50,893 in 2023. This represents a 7.5 per cent decrease compared to the 55,047 properties listed in 2022. This was 20.2 per cent below the 63,761 properties listed in 2021. 


The total number of properties listed last year was 10.5 per cent below the region’s 10-year total annual average of (56,868). Currently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,802, a 13 per cent increase compared to December 2022 (7,791). This is 0.3 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (8,772). 


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,168,700. This represents a five per cent increase over December 2022 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to November 2023. 


“Ultimately, the story of 2023 is one of too few homes available relative to the pool of willing and qualified buyers,” Lis said. “Sellers were reluctant to list their properties early in the year, which led to fewer sales than usual coming out of the gate. But this also led to near record-low inventory levels in the spring, which put upward pressure on prices as buyers competed for the scarce few homes available.”

 
“Looking back on the year, it’s hard not to wonder how we’d be closing out 2023 if mortgage rates had been a few per cent lower than they were. And it looks like we might get some insight into that question in 2024, as bond markets and professional forecasters are projecting lower borrowing costs are likely to come, with modest rate cuts expected in the first half of the New Year.”



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Metro Vancouver's* housing market shows resilience in 2023, ending the year in balanced territory:
 

Residential sales in the region totalled 1,345 in December 2023, a 3.2 per cent increase from the 1,303 sales recorded in December 2022. This was 36.4 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,114). 


There were 1,327 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in December 2023. This represents a 9.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,208 properties listed in December 2022. This was 22.7 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (1,716). 


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2023 is 16 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 11.1 per cent for detached homes, 18.7 per cent for attached, and 19.6 per cent for apartments. 


Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months. 


Sales of detached homes in December 2023 reached 376, a 1.3 per cent increase from the 371 detached sales recorded in December 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,964,400. This represents a 7.7 per cent increase from December 2022 and a 0.9 per cent decrease compared to November 2023. 


Sales of apartment homes reached 719 in December 2023, a 2.4 per cent increase compared to the 702 sales in December 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $751,300. This represents a 5.6 per cent increase from December 2022 and a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to November 2023. 


Attached home sales in December 2023 totalled 238, a 7.2 per cent increase compared to the 222 sales in December 2022. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,072,700. This represents a 6.4 per cent increase from December 2022 and a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to November 2023.



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.



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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (October 2023) - December 22nd, 2023


Canadian real GDP was nearly unchanged for the third consecutive month in October. Manufacturing contracted 0.6 per cent in October, led by declines in durable goods. Construction activity fell by 0.1 per cent, but residential construction continued to grow strongly, rising by 1.2 per cent from the prior month. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 6.8 per cent as home resales continues to soften amid elevated borrowing costs. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.1 per cent in November.

In October, Canadian inflation-adjusted GDP extended its streak of almost exactly zero growth or contraction in economic activity. Canadian real GDP is little changed from where it was in March, despite a large increase in the national population due to immigration. The economy continues to avoid a technical recession, but with per capita real GDP declining, Canadian GDP growth remains very soft. In addition, labour markets are gradually softening across Canada, and the inflation rate has shown signs of cooling, with 3-month moving averages of core inflation well below 3 per cent. Given this data, markets now broadly anticipate that the Bank of Canada will not raise its benchmark rate further. The question is, instead, how quickly the Bank will cut rates in 2024, with the balance of probabilities on cuts beginning in the spring and accumulating by the summer and towards the end of the year. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, January 24th. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


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Canadian Retail Sales (October 2023) - December 21, 2023


Canadian retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in October to $66.9 billion. Excluding volatile items, sales were up 1.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.4 per cent in October. Retail e-commerce trade rose by 1.8 per cent to $3.9 billion in October, amounting to 5.9 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC rose 0.5 per cent in October. BC retail sales are up 0.7 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.7 per cent from last month and 2.3 per cent from October of 2022.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.


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Canadian Inflation (November 2023) - December 20, 2023

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, unchanged from the rate in October. Excluding energy costs, CPI rose 3.8 per cent year-over-year in November. Shelter costs continue to be a major driver of inflation, with mortgage interest costs up 29.8 per cent and rent up 7.4 per cent. Grocery price inflation continued to moderate, but nevertheless increased 4.7 per cent year-over-year last month. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.25 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.2 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained around 3.5 per cent year-over-year in November. 

After considerable progress in taming inflation, the rate of change in the CPI has stubbornly remained close to the 3-4 per cent range since the late spring. Alongside softening labour markets and weak GDP growth, inflation in this territory has been sufficient to keep the Bank of Canada from raising rates since the summer. Although softer gasoline prices have done some of the work to pull down the inflation rate, large increases in mortgage interest costs, which are a direct consequence of Bank tightening, have pulled inflation upwards. Indeed, inflation excluding mortgage interest costs was unchanged from last month at just 2.2 per cent. Taken together, markets expect that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise rates further. Rather, markets expect the Bank to cut rates substantially by the summer of 2024, but this will of course depend on the rate of economic growth and price appreciation in the first half of the year.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (November 2023) - December 16th, 2023


Canadian housing starts fell sharply by 22 per cent to 212,624 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 19 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts fell 6 per cent from last month to 56,268 units, while multi-family and others fell 26 per cent to 156,356 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts dropped 35 per cent from last month to 39,051 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 7 per cent to 5,181 units while multi-family starts dived by 40 per cent to 31,288 units. Starts in the province were 19 per cent below the levels from November 2022. Starts fell from last month by 13.6k units in Vancouver, 3.2k in Victoria, and 4.4k in Kelowna while rising by 2.1k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 0.6 per cent to 50,543 SAAR.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S November 2023 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,185,100. This represents a 1.0% decrease from October 2023 and a 4.9% increase from November 2022.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.9% from Oct 2023 and increased 6.8% from Nov 2022.


- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 0.7% from Oct 2023 and increased 6.9% from Nov 2022.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 1.0% from Oct 2023 and increased 6.2% from Nov 2022.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023 and that slowdown in growth is expected to extend into the fourth quarter. As a result, inflationary pressure is easing, though the Bank stated that it is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and wants to see a sustained easing of core inflation in future months.

Given the evidence of a slowing economy and some long-awaited downward momentum in core inflation, it appears likely that the Bank of Canada’s rate-tightening cycle is at an end.  If so, the conversation around Bank of Canada meetings in 2024 will shift toward when the Bank might lower rates and how fast. Given that the Bank’s estimate for its neutral rate is between 2 and 3 per cent, we can expect between 200 and 300 basis points of rate cuts once it is clear that inflation is returning to its 2 per cent target. After hitting a 15-year high this fall, Canadian bond yields have been tumbling to finish the year as financial markets process meaningful progress on reducing inflation and the projected end of central bank rate hikes. The five-year Government of Canada bond yield has trended near 3.5 per cent over the last week and if that trend sustains, we will see a meaningful decline in fixed mortgage rates to start 2024. Our forecast is for the average 5-year fixed mortgage rate to fall to about 5 per cent by the end of 2024, while variable rates will begin falling as the Bank of Canada lowers its overnight rate starting in the first or second quarter of next year. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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With one month left in 2023, a steady increase in housing inventory is offering home buyers across Metro Vancouver* among the largest selection to choose from since 2021.


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales2 in the region totalled 1,702 in November 2023, a 4.7 per cent increase from the 1,625 sales recorded in November 2022. This was 33 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,538).


“We’ve been watching the number of active listings in our market increase over the past few months, which is giving buyers more to choose from than they’ve been used to seeing over the past few years,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “When paired with the seasonal slowdown in sales we typically see this time of year, this increase in supply is creating balanced conditions across Metro Vancouver’s housing market.”


There were 3,369 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in November 2023. This represents a 9.8 per cent increase compared to the 3,069 properties listed in November 2022. This was 2.8 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,464).


The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,931, a 13.5 per cent increase compared to November 2022 (9,633). This is 3.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (10,543).


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2023 is 16.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.7 per cent for detached homes, 19.8 per cent for attached, and 18.2 per cent for apartments.


Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


“Balanced market conditions typically come with flatter price trends, and that’s what we’ve seen in the market since the summer months. These trends follow a period where prices rose over seven per cent earlier in the year,” Lis said. “You probably won’t find Cyber Monday discounts, but prices have edged lower by a few per cent since the summer. And with most economists expecting mortgage rates to fall modestly in 2024, market conditions for buyers are arguably the most favorable we’ve seen in some time in our market.”


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,185,100. This represents a 4.9 per cent increase over November 2022 and a one per cent decrease compared to October 2023.


Sales of detached homes in November 2023 reached 523, a seven per cent increase from the 489 detached sales recorded in November 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,982,600. This represents a 6.8 per cent increase from November 2022 and a 0.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2023.


Sales of apartment homes reached 850 in November 2023, a 0.4 per cent increase compared to the 847 sales in November 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $762,700. This represents a 6.2 per cent increase from November 2022 and a one per cent decrease compared to October 2023.


Attached home sales in November 2023 totalled 316, a 12.5 per cent increase compared to the 281 sales in November 2022. The benchmark price of a townhouse3 is $1,092,600. This represents a 6.9 per cent increase from November 2022 and a 0.7 per cent decrease compared to October 2023.



Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Employment (November 2023) - December 1st, 2023


Canadian employment ticked up by 24,900 (0.1 per cent) in November. The Canadian unemployment rate also rose to 5.8 per cent, following an increase to 5.7 per cent last month. Average hourly wages rose 4.8 per cent year-over-year to $34.28 in November, while total hours worked were up 1.3 per cent from November of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.3 per cent to 2.82 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver fell 0.1 per cent to 1.61 million. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 points in BC to 5.3 per cent while remaining unchanged in Metro Vancouver at 5.8 per cent.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (Q3-2023) - November 30th, 2023


Canadian real GDP rose 0.1 per cent from the prior month in September, following contractions in the prior three months. Manufacturing jumped 0.9 per cent in September as inventory formation pushed economic activity upwards. Construction activity rose by 1 per cent, with residential building up 3.9 per cent, the largest gain since April 2021. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the third consecutive month, dropping 4.1 per cent as sales weakened into the fall. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.2 per cent in October.

GDP declined 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, erasing a 0.3 per cent gain in the second quarter. The slowdown was driven in part by weaker exports, which declined 1.3 per cent from the prior quarter, led by weaker petroleum exports. Housing investment rose 2 per cent from the prior quarter but an increase in new construction (+6.4 per cent) was offset by a contraction in ownership transfer costs representing resale activity (-4.3 per cent). Employee compensation rose 1.3 per cent and household disposable income rose 1 per cent, driving the household saving rate to 5.1 per cent in the third quarter.

Canadian GDP bucked expectations and contracted in the third quarter, declining by 1.1 per cent on an annualized basis. At the same time, Statistics Canada revised its second-quarter GDP figure considerably upward, meaning that the economy has again avoided entering a technical recession. With October's preliminary figure again positive, the Canadian economy appears weak but is so far not shrinking substantially in aggregate terms. However, with very soft GDP figures occurring amid a rising unemployment rate and some progress on inflation, markets continue to expect that the Bank of Canada is likely at the end of its tightening cycle. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, December 6th.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October, down from 3.8 per cent in September. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 3.6 per cent year-over-year in October. Shelter costs continue to be the main driver of inflation, with mortgage interest costs up 30.5 per cent and rent up 8.2 per cent. Grocery price inflation continued to moderate, albeit slowly and still elevated at 5.4 per cent year-over-year. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI fell 0.1 per cent, largely as a result of falling gasoline prices. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation showed significant downward momentum for the first time in months, falling to around 3.5 per cent year-over-year after trending near 4 per cent since the spring. 

While the main contributor to lower inflation this month was falling gas prices, there were other strong signs of progress on inflation that should please the Bank of Canada.  The three-month trend in core inflation measures fell to between 2.7 and 3.1 per cent and inflation excluding mortgage interest costs fell to just 2.2 per cent. Those trends, along with slowing GDP growth and early signs of a weakening labour market, should keep the Bank of Canada sidelined in December and looking to lower rates in 2024.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Housing Starts (October 2023) - November 16th, 2023


Canadian housing starts rose 1 per cent to 274,681 units in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 4 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts rose 5 per cent from last month to 59,911 units, while multi-family and others rose 1 per cent to 214,768 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts jumped 50 per cent from last month to 60,174 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts were unchanged from last month at 5,588 units while multi-family starts surged 65 per cent to 51,813 units. Starts in the province were 33 per cent above the levels from October 2022. Starts increased from last month by 9k units in Vancouver, 6.2k in Victoria, 2.9k in Kelowna, and 2.2k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 0.3 per cent to 50,887 SAAR.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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British Columbia's October 2023 MLS sales


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,373 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in October 2023, an increase of 1.8 per cent from October 2022. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $968,786 up 4.1 per cent compared to October 2022. The total sales dollar volume was $5.2 billion, representing a 6 per cent increase from the same time last year.


“Home sales have slowed as expected given high borrowing costs and a punishing stress test,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, the inventory of homes for sale remains quite low, despite a modest uptick in new listings. Consequently, markets have found balance, though at a very low level of activity.”
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, active listings in the province have increased for the fifth consecutive month, but still remain low by historical standards and fall short of what is typically required for a sustainable market balance in the long term.
 
Year-to-date BC residential sales dollar volume was down 13.6 per cent to $63.1 billion, compared with the same period in 2022. Residential unit sales were down 105 per cent to 64,936 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.4 per cent to $971,802.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Quick Snapshot of METRO VANCOUVER'S October 2023 MLS Sales


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,196,500. This represents a 0.6% decrease from September 2023 and a 4.4% increase from October 2022.


Specifically:


- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.8% from Sep 2023 and increased 5.8% from Oct 2022.


- The benchmark price for townhouses increased 0.2% from Sep 2023 and increased 6% from Oct 2022.


- The benchmark price for apartment/condos increased 0.2% Sep 2023 and increased 6.4% from Oct 2022.



*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (August 2022) - November 3rd, 2023


In August, for the second consecutive month, Canadian real GDP was largely unchanged. A surge in sales of machinery, equipment, and supplies led to a 2.3 per cent increase in the Wholesale trade sector. Meanwhile, oil & gas extraction rose 1 per cent on higher extractions in Western Canada while mining and quarrying rose 4.2 per cent. Manufacturing, on the other hand, fell 0.6 per cent, declining for the third consecutive month. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the second consecutive month, dropping 3.8 per cent as sales softened over the late summer. Overall, Canadian real GDP is now 3.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was again largely unchanged in the Canadian economy in September. 

With a flat August GDP number and September's preliminary estimate also flat, the Canadian economy is expected to have been largely unchanged since February, despite rapid population growth. Indeed, with the preliminary estimate for September, annualized third-quarter GDP is expected to contract 0.1 per cent, following a 0.2 per cent contraction in the second quarter. This would technically imply that the Canadian economy is in a shallow recession. Despite still too-hot inflation numbers, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 5 per cent last week, giving the prior 10 rate hikes time to work through the economy. Given signs of weak growth and cooling labour markets, financial markets no longer anticipate additional rate hikes this cycle.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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An increase in newly listed properties is providing more choice to home buyers across Metro Vancouver*, but sales remain below long-term averages:


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,996 in October 2023, a 3.7 per cent increase from the 1,924 sales recorded in October 2022. This total is 29.5 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,832) for October.


“With properties coming to market at a rate roughly five per cent above the ten-year seasonal average, there seems to be a continuation of the renewed interest on the part of sellers to participate in the market that we’ve been watching this fall,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Counterbalancing this increase in supply, however, is the fact sales remain almost 30 per cent below their ten-year seasonal average, which tells us demand is not as strong as we might expect this time of year.”


There were 4,664 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in October 2023. This represents a 15.4 per cent increase compared to the 4,043 properties listed in October 2022 and is 4.8 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (4,449) for the month.


The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 11,599, a 12.6 per cent increase compared to October 2022 (10,305). This change is also 0.6 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (11,526).


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for October 2023 is 17.9 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.9 per cent for detached homes, 20.9 per cent for attached, and 21.5 per cent for apartments.


Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.


“With more supply in the form of resale inventory, and weaker demand in the form of slower sales, we’ve seen market conditions overall adjust towards more balanced conditions. It’s noteworthy that the multifamily segment remains more active than the detached segment at this time,” Lis said. “While the highest borrowing costs we’ve seen in over a decade continue to constrain affordability, a silver lining for buyers is that price increases have abated with these more balanced market conditions, meaning purchasing power is holding steady for the moment.”


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,196,500. This represents a 4.4 per cent increase over October 2022 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2023.


Sales of detached homes in October 2023 reached 577, a 0.7 per cent decrease from the 581 detached sales recorded in October 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,001,400. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to September 2023.


Sales of apartment homes reached 1,044 in October 2023, a 4.9 per cent increase compared to the 995 sales in October 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $770,200. This represents a 6.4 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023.


Attached home sales in October 2023 totalled 356, a 6.6 per cent increase compared to the 334 sales in October 2022. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,100,500. This represents a 6 per cent increase from October 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023.




Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that there is growing evidence that higher interest rates are dampening economic activity, and it expects growth to be weak through 2024. On inflation, the Bank sees little downward momentum in its preferred measures of core inflation and expects inflation to average 3.5 per cent until the middle of next year before falling back to its 2 per cent target in 2025.  Notably, the Bank stated that it is concerned that price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased. As such, it is prepared to still raise its policy rate further if needed. 

The combination of a slowing economy with inflation seemingly stuck in a range of 3 to 4 per cent muddies the outlook for rates over the next year, though as the Bank clearly stated, there is the possibility of more rate increases if inflation does not decline. Our bet is still that the impact of high interest rates will tip the economy at least briefly into negative territory, and that consumer spending will slow further. However, without significant progress on returning inflation to its 2 per cent target, households may be waiting longer than expected for relief on variable mortgage rates. Yields on five-year Government of Canada bonds have come down from their highs near 4.5 per cent but remain at their highest level in 15 years. Consequently, fixed mortgage rates have hit annual highs over 6 per cent, the impact of which is compounded by an increasingly punishing stress test. We expect five-year fixed mortgage rates may start to come down in early 2024 as bond markets price in future rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.  However, once the Bank lowers its policy rate back to neutral (2-3 per cent), fixed mortgage rates will settle at a level that is higher than borrowers have become accustomed to over the past decade.



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Canadian Inflation (September 2023) - October 17, 2023


Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 4 per cent in August. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 3.7 per cent year-over-year in September. Shelter costs were up 6 per cent year over year, the same increase as August, driven by mortgage interest costs (up 31 per cent from last year) along with rents (up 7 per cent). Grocery prices were up 5.8 per cent year over year in September, down from 6.9 per cent in August and 8.5 per cent in July. Month over month, seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.2 per cent. In BC, consumer prices rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

Price appreciation took a breather last month, bucking expectations and slowing in September. While shelter inflation continued to show high price growth, food inflation has softened significantly since the start of the year, falling by nearly half from over 10 per cent in January. While still stubbornly high, the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, moderated in September. Amid weakening labour markets and flat GDP growth, this unexpectedly cool inflation report offers hope that the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten as much as expected, and bond yields fell following the release. Markets now put the majority odds on the bank holding rates steady for the remainder of the year. 



Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

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Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.