Canadian retail sales increased by 1.0 per cent to $70.4 billion in August compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 4.9 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, were up 1.1 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales increased by 1.0 per cent in August.

Retail sales in British Columbia were largely unchanged in August from the previous month and rose by 6.9 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 0.8 per cent from the prior month and were 5.9 per cent above the level of August 2024.
           
Strong activity in August further demonstrates monthly volatility in Canadian retail sales, as six of nine subsectors rose following a weak previous month. Moreover, broader resilience in core retail sales signifies ongoing strength in household consumption despite weaker economic and labour market conditions. In spite of a slight uptick in headline and core inflation, financial markets are still expecting a second consecutive rate cut from the Bank of Canada next week.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9 per cent increase in August. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4 per cent in September. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.6 per cent in September after rising 2.4 per cent in August. Additionally, shelter price growth remained at 2.6 per cent in September, while food price growth rose by 3.8 per cent year-over-year, 0.4 points higher than the previous month. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.9 per cent year-over-year in September, up from 1.8 per cent in August. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, were 3.2 per cent and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
September’s CPI report certainly complicates the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision, with headline and core inflation ticking upward. While base-year effects explain some of the upward price pressures, acceleration in certain aggregates such as food prices will certainly concern the Bank.  Nonetheless, the Bank has emphasized that underlying inflation—while higher than preferred—remains stable at around 2.5 per cent, which, coupled with weak economic conditions, suggests a rate cut is on the horizon before year-close.

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Canadian housing starts increased 14 per cent from the previous month, totaling 279,234 units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 25 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts increased by 1 per cent from last month to 55,408 units, while multi-family and other starts increased by 18 per cent to 223,825 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 20 per cent from last month to 37,305 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts decreased by 5 per cent to 3,965 units, while multi-family starts fell by 23 per cent to 30,197 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 15 per cent below the levels from September 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 101 per cent in Abbotsford and 23 per cent in Victoria, but down 55 per cent in Nanaimo, 42 per cent in Kelowna, and 0.6 per cent in Vancouver.

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Total MLS® residential sales dollar volume was $5.5 billion, up 4.8 per cent from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 21.4 per cent lower than the ten-year average for the month of September.

“Home sales in the province are gaining momentum following a slow first half of 2025,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We anticipate sales will finish the year strong, aided by lower interest rates helping to unleash pent-up demand.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 7.3 per cent to $51.8 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 4.2 per cent year-over-year at 54,594 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also down 3.3 per cent to $949,203.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,142,100. This represents a 3.2 per cent decrease over September 2024 and a 0.7 per cent decrease compared to August 2025.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 4.4% from Sep 2024 and decreased 0.9% from Aug 2025.

- The benchmark price for attached/townhouses decreased 2.7% from Sep 2024 and decreased 0.9% from Aug 2025.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 4.4% from Sep 2024 and decreased 0.8% from Aug 2025.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP rose by 0.2 per cent in July, after declining by 0.1 per cent in June. Goods-producing sectors rose by 0.6 per cent, while service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent. Sectoral growth was led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (1.4 per cent), manufacturing (0.7 per cent), and wholesale trade (0.6 per cent). The biggest detractor from growth was from retail trade (-1.0 per cent), while all goods-producing industries grew from the previous month. Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers rose by 3.6 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry was largely unchanged in August.

The Canadian economy returned to growth in July following several consecutive months of contraction. However, July’s upswing appears temporary, as August’s preliminary estimate suggests growth was flat to close out the summer. We expect the Bank of Canada to cut once more this year to address underlying weaknesses in the Canadian economy and labour market. With that being said, central bankers and economists will now focus on October’s employment and CPI reports —the last two data points for the Bank to consider before its next meeting.

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Canadian housing starts decreased 16 per cent from the previous month, totalling 245,791 units in August at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 15 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts decreased by 2 per cent from last month to 55,271 units, while multi-family and other starts decreased by 20 per cent to 190,519 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 19 per cent from last month to 46,274 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 7 per cent to 4,284 units, while multi-family starts fell by 22 per cent to 39,480 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 34 per cent above the levels from August 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 150 per cent in Abbotsford and 31 per cent in Victoria, but down 56 per cent in Nanaimo, 37 per cent in Kelowna, and 0.6 per cent in Vancouver.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7 per cent increase in July. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was up 0.2 per cent in August. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.4 per cent in August after holding at 2.5 per cent during each of the previous three months.  Additionally, shelter price growth was 2.6 per cent in August, the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2021, and down from 3.0 per cent in July. Food price growth registered at 3.4 per cent year-over-year, marginally higher than the previous month. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.8 per cent year-over-year in August, up from 1.7 per cent in July. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained at 3.1 per cent and 3.0 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
While the Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation have remained at the upper end—and even outside of—their target range, 3-month annualized core inflation has stabilized around 2.5 per cent. Coupled with weaker-than-expected second-quarter growth, this report is unlikely to sway the Bank of Canada away from a likely rate cut tomorrow in hopes of stimulating the economy heading into the final quarter of the year. 

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Canadian employment decreased by 0.3 per cent from the previous month, losing 66,000 jobs to 20.955 million in August. The employment rate fell by 0.2 points to 60.5 per cent, while the unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 7.1 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.2 per cent year-over-year to $36.31 last month, while total hours worked were up 0.9 per cent compared to August of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. fell by 0.5 per cent to 2.936 million, losing 15,700 jobs in August. Employment in Metro Vancouver fell by 1.1 per cent to 1.679 million. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.3 points to 6.2 per cent in August. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate also rose by 0.3 points to 6.4 per cent in the eighth month of the year. 

August's jobs report demonstrates a further cooling of the Canadian labour market, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level in four years. Job losses were concentrated in part-time work as seasonal positions wind down, while full-time employment was largely unchanged following a weak July. Moreover, core-aged employment for men and women reached its lowest levels in over 7 years each. Overall, the Canadian labour market in 2025 can be characterized by negative employment growth and steady upticks in unemployment as broader uncertainties continue to loom over Canadian households and businesses. This report favours a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in a couple of weeks as it looks to reignite the economy moving into the fall.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,150,400. This represents a 3.8 per cent decrease over August 2024 and a 1.3 per cent decrease compared to July 2025.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 4.8% from August 2024 and decreased 1.2% from July 2025.

- The benchmark price for attached/townhouses decreased 3.5% from August 2024 and decreased 1.8% from July 2025.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 4.4% from August 2024 and decreased 1.3% from July 2025.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in June, after declining by 0.1 per cent in May. Goods-producing sectors fell 0.5 per cent, while service-producing industries increased by 0.1 per cent. Sectoral growth was led by retail trade (1.4 per cent), wholesale trade (0.5 per cent), and construction (0.3 per cent). The biggest detractors from growth were from manufacturing (-1.5 per cent) and utilities (-1.2 per cent). Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers rose by 3.1 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry increased by 0.1 per cent in July.

Real GDP declined by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, registering an annualized growth rate of -1.6 per cent. Contraction was driven by a broad-based slowdown in trade, with exports and imports falling by 7.5 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Business investment fell by 0.6 per cent, driven by slower investment in machinery and equipment (-9.4 per cent).  Meanwhile, slightly higher investment in residential structures (1.5 per cent) was offset by its non-residential counterpart (-3.3 per cent). Household spending rose 1.1 per cent in the second quarter, while the household savings rate fell a full point to 5.0 per cent, driven by weakening income growth. On a per capita basis, GDP fell 0.4 per cent in Q2 after increasing by 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter. 

As many feared, the consequences of tariffs on the Canadian economy are reflected in this print, with Q2 GDP growth falling below the Bank of Canada's most recent projection. Contraction is largely attributable to far lower trade, offsetting the export growth which propelled the economy forward during Q1 as companies tried to get ahead of tariffs. Moreover, the associated uncertainty of volatile trade policy hampered investment from Canadian businesses, creating a further drag on growth.  This report could influence the Bank of Canada towards a rate cut during their next meeting in hopes of re-igniting the economy moving into the fall. Moving forward, the Bank of Canada will closely watch next month's inflation data for signs that core inflation is moderating to its 2% target, such that it can more confidently commit to a 25-point cut in September. 

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Canadian retail sales increased by 1.5 per cent to $70.2 billion in June compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 6.6 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, were up 1.9 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales increased by 1.5 per cent in June. Quarterly retail sales rose 0.4 per cent in the second quarter.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 1.5 per cent in May from the previous month and rose by 10.2 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 2.0 per cent from the prior month and were 12.4 per cent above the level of June 2024.

June's report represents a rebound in retail activity from the previous month, with sales rising to their highest level this year. However, over 25 per cent of business respondents reported negative tariff impacts through changes in final prices and demand. While this report favours another rate hold, markets remain uncertain about the Bank of Canada's decision in September as core inflation stabilizes near its upper limit and economic growth remains weak.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in July, down from a 1.9 per cent increase in June. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI was up 0.1 per cent in July. Downward pressure on headline inflation was driven by a sharper fall in gasoline prices year-over-year compared to June. The CPI ex-gasoline has held at 2.5 per cent over the past three months.  Additionally, shelter price growth rose for the first time since February 2024, with prices growing by 3.0 per cent in July, slightly up from 2.9 per cent in June. Food purchased in grocery stores rose at a faster pace of 3.4 per cent year-over-year compared to 2.8 per cent the previous month. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.7 per cent year-over-year in July, down from 2.1 per cent in June. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, are 3.1 per cent and 3.0 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
July's CPI report continues to show a divergence between headline and core inflation, largely due to monthly fluctuations in energy prices. The Bank of Canada's core measures of inflation have remained at the upper end—and even outside of—their target range for the past three months as tariffs continue passing through the economy. With 3-month annualized core inflation dropping a full point to 2.4 per cent, this report slightly favours a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in September, as the downside risks to growth remain strong from ongoing trade uncertainties.

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Canadian housing starts increased 4 per cent from the previous month, totalling 294,085 units in July at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 7 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts decreased by 1 per cent from last month to 55,740 units, while multi-family and other starts increased by 5 per cent to 238,342 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 15 per cent from last month to 56,918 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 1 per cent to 3,953 units, while multi-family starts fell by 17 per cent to 50,394 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 16 per cent above the levels from July 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 147 per cent in Abbotsford and 29 per cent in Victoria, but down 71 per cent in Nanaimo, 36 per cent in Kelowna, and 5 per cent in Vancouver.

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,056 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems in July 2025, up 2.2 per cent from July 2024. The average MLS® residential price in BC in July 2025 was down 2.1 per cent at $942,686 compared to $963,047 in July 2024.

The total sales dollar volume was $6.7 billion, virtually unchanged from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 16 per cent lower than the ten-year July average.
 
“Housing markets across BC continue to build momentum through the summer, with all regions apart from the Lower Mainland boasting higher sales activity from the previous year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With a stable trajectory for monetary policy, we expect sales in the province will continue to improve as tariff uncertainties fade.”
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 9.4 per cent to $40.8 billion, compared with the same period in 2024. Residential unit sales are down 5.7 per cent year-over-year at 42,895 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also down 3.9 per cent to $952,323.

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Canadian employment decreased by 0.2 per cent from the previous month, losing 41,000 jobs to 21.020 million in July. The employment rate fell by 0.2 points to 60.7 per cent, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.3 per cent year-over-year to $36.16 last month, while total hours worked were up 0.3 per cent compared to July of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. fell by 0.5 per cent to 2.953 million, losing 16,300 jobs in July. Employment in Metro Vancouver fell by 2.2 per cent to 1.697 million in July. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.3 points to 5.9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate also rose by 0.3 points to 6.1 per cent in the seventh month of the year. 

July's jobs report echoes many of the same themes of the first half of the year—namely, weak labour force growth. Once again, job losses were concentrated in both full-time work (-51,000) and the private sector (-39,000), signifying that employment growth is largely driven by part-time and seasonal positions. Moreover, youth employment continues to flounder, with the unemployment rate for this demographic reaching its highest level (14.6 per cent) since September 2010 (excluding pandemic years). Overall, the Canadian labour market in 2025 has remained cool, with minimal employment growth (+0.1 per cent) since January and an unemployment rate near its highest level since the pandemic. After another hold at its previous meeting, this report favours a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in September, as they look to stimulate a struggling economy and labour market while holding inflation steady.

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