Canadian real GDP rose by 0.2 per cent in December, after remaining mostly flat in November. Both goods-producing and service-producing sectors grew by 0.2 per cent, respectively. Sectoral growth was led by manufacturing (1.2 per cent), wholesale trade (1.7 per cent), and transportation/warehousing (0.7 per cent). The biggest detractor to growth came from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-0.9 per cent). Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers fell by 3.6 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in January.
     
Real GDP decreased by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, registering an annualized growth rate of -0.6 per cent. Contraction was driven by declines in non-farm business inventories, led by the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors. Overall trade picked up in the final quarter, with exports and imports increasing by 1.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively. Nonetheless, trade declined in 2025, with exports falling by 1.7 per cent and imports dropping by 0.4 per cent. Household spending rose 0.4 per cent in Q4, driven by higher expenditures on rent and financial services which offset an overall decline in goods-expenditures. Total capital investment increased 0.8 per cent, largely driven by government investments in weapons systems. Meanwhile, business investment declined by 0.1 per cent, as both residential and non-residential investment fell. However, business investment increased by 0.3 per cent overall in 2025. The household savings rate fell 0.8 points to 4.4 per cent, as disposable income growth was outpaced by nominal spending. Overall, the Canadian economy grew by 1.7 per cent in 2025.

Canada’s economic performance comes as an unwelcomed surprise, with annualized growth in the fourth quarter underperforming the Bank’s updated projection of flat (0 per cent) growth. Behind the headline number, increases in exports, household spending and government investment contributed to growth in the final quarter. However, 2025 marks the third consecutive year of government capital investment outpacing business capital expenditures with respect to GDP growth, suggesting ongoing weakness in private sector investment. A broad-based drawdown in trade for the year was the biggest detractor to growth in spite of further recovery during the final quarter, with export volumes to the US failing to recover from the sharp declines seen in the second quarter as tariffs began permeating into the economy. Taken together, while the headline number may spook readers, we expect the underlying resilience in the Canadian economy found in this report to keep the Bank of Canada on course for another rate hold in March.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.