Canadian retail sales increased by 1.3 per cent to $70.4 billion in November compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 3.1 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, increased by 1.6 per cent in November. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales rose by 1.1 per cent in November.

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 1.8 per cent in November month-over-month and rose by 4.2 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.4 per cent from the prior month and were 1.7 per cent above the level of November 2024.

A strong November print made up for two consecutive monthly declines in consumer spending, bringing Canadian retail sales to its highest point of the year. This recovery reflects broader volatility in monthly retail activity throughout 2025 while demonstrating ongoing resilience in consumption despite a relatively weak economy. Markets anticipate a rate hold from the Bank of Canada next week to kick off what is expected to be a quieter year concerning monetary policy adjustments.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December, following the 2.2 per cent increase in November. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.3 per cent in December, equivalent to a 3.7 per cent increase on an annualized basis. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 3.0 per cent in December, up by 0.4 points from the previous month. Additionally, food prices increased by 6.2 per cent year-over-year, driven by base-year effects from last year’s tax break on restaurant food and continued acceleration in grocery prices. In BC, consumer prices rose 1.7 per cent year-over-year in December, down 0.5 points from November’s increase. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to 2.5 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Much of the upward pressure in December’s CPI print was a base-year effect from last year’s GST/HST holiday on several aggregates, counteracted by larger declines in gasoline prices. Nonetheless, 3-month annualized core inflation cooled to about 1.65 per cent, its lowest level since Spring of 2024, and falling below the midpoint of the Bank of Canada’s threshold. Looking ahead, we expect a rate-hold from the Bank next week as they further evaluate Canada’s economic growth in the final quarter relative to their most recent projections.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.