Canadian retail sales decreased by 0.7 per cent to $69.8 billion in September compared to the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 3.4 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, were relatively unchanged month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales decreased by 0.8 per cent in September. Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of the year.

Retail sales in British Columbia were down 0.9 per cent in September month-over-month and rose by 4.4 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were down 1.0 per cent from the prior month and were 2.6 per cent above the level of September 2024.

September’s report rounds out the weakest quarterly retail growth since Q2 of 2024, demonstrating some hesitancy in consumption amidst shaky economic conditions. However, further resilience in October’s jobs report and slight downticks in core inflation reaffirm the Bank’s guidance toward holding the overnight rate during its December meeting.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian housing starts decreased 17 per cent from the previous month, totaling 232,765 units in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 5 per cent from the same month last year.  Single-detached housing starts decreased by 8 per cent from last month, while multi-family and other starts decreased by 1 per cent. 

In British Columbia, starts fell by 5 per cent from last month to 35,356 units (SAAR) in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts increased by 16 per cent to 4,671 units, while multi-family starts fell by 8 per cent to 27,809 units month-over-month (SAAR). Starts in the province were 19 per cent below the levels from October 2024. Year-to-date starts are up 111 per cent in Abbotsford and 23 per cent in Victoria, but down 52 per cent in Nanaimo, 38 per cent in Kelowna, and 4.5 per cent in Vancouver.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October, down from a 2.4 per cent increase in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1 per cent in October, equivalent to a 1.5 per cent increase on an annualized basis. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.6 per cent in October, matching the previous month. Additionally, shelter price growth fell by 0.1 points to 2.5 per cent in October, while food prices increased by 3.4 per cent year-over-year, 0.4 points lower than September. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year in October, up from 1.9 per cent in September. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to 2.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Much of the downward pressure in October’s CPI print was driven by lower year-over-year gasoline prices, while several major aggregates also saw slower price growth compared to September. Nonetheless, 3-month annualized core inflation is 2.6 per cent, closely aligned with the Bank’s perceived level of underlying inflation. Looking ahead, the Bank appears poised for a rate hold during its final meeting of the year, barring a catastrophic third quarter performance by the Canadian economy in this month’s quarterly GDP print.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian employment increased by 0.3 per cent from the previous month, with the economy gaining 67,000 jobs to 21.082 million in October. The employment rate rose by 0.2 points to 60.8 per cent, while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.2 points to 6.9 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $37.06 last month.
           
Employment in B.C. fell by 0.1 per cent to 2.942 million, with the provincial economy losing 2,900 jobs in October. Employment in Metro Vancouver decreased by 0.3 per cent to 1.687 million. The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.2 points to 6.6 per cent in October. Meanwhile, Vancouver's unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to 6.3 per cent in October. 

October’s jobs report marks two consecutive months of employment growth that offset similar sized job losses during the summer. Job growth was driven by gains in private sector employment, the first private sector job growth since June. This report will likely further solidify the Bank of Canada's resolve that further rate cuts are not needed at this time, leading to a hold at their December meeting. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is $1,132,500. This represents a 3.4 per cent decrease over October 2024 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to September 2025.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 4.3% from Oct 2024 and decreased 0.9% from Sep 2025.

- The benchmark price for attached/townhouses decreased 3.8% from Oct 2024 and decreased 0.3% from Sep 2025.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 5.1% from Oct 2024 and decreased 1.4% from Sep 2025.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

Canadian real GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent in August after increasing by 0.3 per cent in July. Goods-producing sectors fell by 0.6 per cent, while service-producing industries decreased by 0.1 per cent. Detractors from growth were led by utilities (-2.3 per cent), transportation and warehousing (-1.7 per cent), wholesale trade (-1.2 per cent), and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (-0.7 per cent). Conversely, retail trade was the largest driver of growth in August (0.9 per cent), while all goods-producing industries either remained flat or contracted from the previous month. Output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers rose by 0.3 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry increased by 0.1 per cent in September, contributing to an advanced estimate of 0.4 per cent growth for the third quarter on an annualized basis.

The Canadian economy gave back much of the growth found in July, with August’s data contributing to a weak year of economic activity in Canada. Following two consecutive rate cuts, the Bank of Canada will be monitoring next month’s quarterly GDP results to assess how the economy is performing relative to their updated projections. If the economy underperformed in the third quarter, we could expect one final rate cut from the Bank before year-close to address underlying weaknesses in the economy and labour market.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.