Canadian real GDP increased by 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent increase in September. Service-producing industries grew by 0.1 per cent, while goods-producing industries rose by 0.9 per cent. October's growth was driven by gains in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+2.4 per cent), construction (+0.4 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.5 per cent), and real-estate and rental and leasing (+0.5 per cent). Finally, GDP for real-estate offices and agents was up 6.3 per cent month-over-month. Overall, the Canadian economy exhibited growth in 12 out of 20 industries.  Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in November.

After third-quarter growth that fell short of the Bank of Canada's expectations, Canada's output in October shows some positive signs of consumer activity and builds upon some encouraging trends observed in the previous month. We expect the Bank to cut by 25-basis points at their first two meetings in 2025 and then pausing to assess the need for further stimulus.

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in October. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI increased by 0.1 points in November. Excluding gasoline, the CPI was unchanged at 2.0 per cent in November. Overall shelter price growth continues to cool, as mortgage interest costs were up 13.2 per cent, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of deceleration. Conversely, rent was up 7.7 per cent in November year-over-year, up from 7.3 per cent in October. In spite of accelerating rent price growth, total shelter costs rose 4.6 per cent in November, down from 4.8 per cent in October. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.3 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in October. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged at 2.6 and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's CPI report for November marks a stabilization around the midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range. With CPI ex-gasoline remaining relatively steady, November's headline CPI is likely driven by tailwinds from Black Friday and other related sales which partially accounted for lower prices and higher consumption across several sub-sectors. In spite of this stimulus, many of the special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada remained either unchanged or slightly decelerated, indicating lingering weaknesses in consumer spending. Moving into the new year, the Bank has emphasized concerns of decelerating inflation as much as movement in the opposite direction. Given our trade uncertainties with the incoming American administration, coupled with an underperforming economy, the Bank will monitor the last monthly GDP report of 2024 to set the stage for their agenda heading into 2025, namely, the speed and depth at which they continue cutting the overnight rate. 

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Canadian retail sales rose 0.6 per cent to $67.6 billion in October from the previous month. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales are up by 1.5 per cent. Furthermore, core retail sales, which exclude gasoline and automobile items, rose by 0.2 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, adjusted for rising prices, retail sales were unchanged in October. 

Retail sales in British Columbia were up 0.9 per cent in October month-over-month and up 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 0.1 per cent from the prior month and 1.1 per cent higher than October 2023.

October's retail sales demonstrate a recovery in Canadian retail activity over the past few months as the Bank continues cutting toward its neutral range. The Bank of Canada will hope that Canadian retail growth serves as a proxy for next week's GDP report as it seeks guidance on whether the economy is rebounding in accordance with its 2025 forecast.

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Canadian housing starts rose 8 per cent to 262,433 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 25 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts were 3 per cent higher from last month at 60,781 units, while multi-family and other starts rose by 10 per cent to 201,661 (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts rose 18 per cent from last month to 50,447 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas of the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts were mostly unchanged at 4,586 units, while multi-family starts rose by 23 per cent to 44,002 units month-over-month. Starts in the province were 28 per cent above the levels from November 2023. Compared with last year, year-to-date starts are up by 46 per cent in Kelowna, while being down by 14 per cent in Vancouver, 16 per cent in Victoria, 8 per cent in Abbotsford, and 7 per cent in Nanaimo.

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Canadian real GDP rose by 0.1 per cent in September, after being largely unchanged in August. Goods-producing sectors fell 0.3 per cent, while service-producing industries were up 0.2 per cent. Mining, quarrying and the oil and gas extraction sector (-1.4 per cent) and manufacturing (-0.3 per cent) were the main drivers of downward pressure on growth, and were offset by gains in retail trade (+1 per cent), wholesale trade (+0.9 per cent), and construction (+0.4 per cent). Finally, output for the offices of real-estate agents and brokers grew by 3.0 per cent month-over-month. Preliminary estimates suggest that real GDP by industry also increased by 0.1 per cent in October.

Real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 registered at 1.0 per cent at an annualized rate from the prior quarter. Household spending grew by 0.9 per cent, leading to a 0.2 per cent increase in per capita household expenditures. Growth was also driven by broad-based government spending (+1.1 per cent). Conversely, business investment in machinery fell by 7.8 per cent in the third quarter, strongly attributed to lower spending on aircraft and transportation equipment. Housing investment rose by 0.8 per cent, largely due to higher ownership transfer costs (+4.9 per cent) that arise from resales. However, renovation spending and new construction declined by 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively. Despite higher household consumption, household savings rates reached a 3-year peak at 7.1 per cent, as disposable income grew at nearly double the rate of spending (in nominal terms). On a per capita basis, GDP was down 0.4 per cent in Q3 and marked a sixth consecutive quarterly decline.

Canada saw modest GDP growth in the third quarter, which fell short of the Bank of Canada's most recent quarterly projection of 1.5 per cent growth. The main discrepancies between this report and the Bank's projection are found in lower-than-anticipated business investment and household spending, signalling reluctance among firms and consumers due to more difficult borrowing conditions. In addition, Canadian GDP per capita continues to struggle amidst rapid population growth. This comes in the context of inflation moderating towards the midpoint of its target range, with price appreciation being largely driven by high shelter costs. The labour market remains at cooler levels, with unemployment steadying at around 6.5 per cent. Considering weaker than expected growth, a second consecutive 50-point cut from the Bank seems more likely as they hope to ignite expenditure moving into 2025. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.