The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,579 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in September 2024, up a little under 1 per cent from September 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in September 2024 was down 2.8 per cent at $942,969 compared to an average price of $969,907 in September 2023.

The total sales dollar volume was $5.3 billion, a 2.1 per cent decline from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 25 per cent lower than the ten-year average for September.

“Thus far, falling mortgage rates have not had the expected impact on home sales,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “That said, there has been interesting regional variation with markets on Vancouver Island and in the North recording more historically normal activity while the Lower Mainland and parts of the Interior lag behind.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 3.2 per cent to $56 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales are down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year at 57,069 units, while the average MLS® residential price is up 1 per cent to $981,393.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 1.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from a 2.0 per cent increase in August. This marks the slowest year-over-year increase since February 2021. Month-over-month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, CPI was unchanged in September. The deceleration in headline CPI was driven by a 10.7 per cent decrease in gasoline prices in September. This drop is largely attributed to lower crude oil prices due to pessimistic outlooks on economic growth, coupled with lower costs associated with switching to winter blends. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2 per cent in September, matching August's increase. Mortgage interest costs were up 16.7 per cent, and rent was up 8.2 per cent from last September, both decreasing from August's numbers of 18.8 and 8.9 per cent, respectively. Overall, shelter costs rose 5.0 per cent year-over-year in September, down from 5.3 per cent in August. Finally, goods costs fell 1.0 per cent, while services costs rose 4.0 per cent year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.4 per cent in August. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, remained unchanged from August at 2.3 and 2.4 per cent year-over-year, respectively. 
 
Canada's inflation report for September strongly resembles the patterns of August's report, with different takeaways. Similar to August, the stark dropoff in September's headline CPI is driven by sharp decreases in gasoline prices, with CPI ex-gasoline remaining at 2.2 per cent. Nonetheless, this downward pressure is a function of concerns regarding future economic conditions, thus serving as a proxy for investor/consumer expectations. Moreover, 9 out of 11 special aggregate CPIs published by Statistics Canada fell from August's levels, suggesting that consumption levels are weaker than expected by the Bank of Canada. Despite median and trimmed CPI remaining at 2.3 and 2.4 per cent, the strong dip in headline CPI will raise concerns that inflation is decelerating too quickly due to a weakening economy. Taken together, September's inflation report significantly increases the probability of a 50 basis point cut next week, in hopes of reigniting the economy for our final quarter. 

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian employment rose by 0.2 percent from the previous month, growing by 47,000 jobs to 20.582 million in September. Both unemployment and employment rates fell by 0.1 points to 6.5 per cent and 60.7 per cent, respectively. Average hourly wages rose 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $35.59 last month, while total hours worked were up 1.2 per cent from September of the previous year.

Employment in B.C. fell 0.6 per cent to 2.821 million with a loss of 18,000 jobs in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of provincial job losses. Employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.2 per cent to 1.587 million in September. The unemployment rate in B.C. rose by 0.2 points to 6 per cent. On a similar trend, Vancouver's unemployment rate rose by 0.4 points year-over-year to 6.7 per cent.

September's employment statistics are a beginning sign of a rebounding labour market, with the unemployment rate ticking downward for the first time since January. Moreover, headline job growth is driven by strong private sector expansion (+61,000 jobs), suggesting that firms are willing to incur greater costs amidst continually improving borrowing conditions from the Bank's cutting cycle. Overall, these numbers indicate a slight economic bounceback, which may reduce the odds of a 50 basis point cut later this month. However, September's CPI report will provide more clarity on the economy's expectations of the Bank of Canada's announcements moving forward.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.