Canadian real GDP grew 0.2 per cent in November, following three consecutive months of essentially zero growth. The growth was driven by the goods-producing sectors, which rose by 0.6 per cent. Manufacturing jumped 0.9 per cent in November, led by growth in chemical manufacturing as a number of plants resumed production following maintenance. The resilience of the US economy, as well as the end of a strike by Saint Lawrence seaway employees, likely buoyed exports. Construction activity fell by 0.2 per cent overall, while residential construction rose by just 0.3 per cent, slowing from a burst of construction over the summer and fall. Offices of real estate agents and brokers fell for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 1.3 per cent as home resales remained soft amid elevated borrowing costs. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.3 per cent in December.

Following a period of essentially zero growth in real GDP from the early spring to late fall, November's GDP read, alongside December's preliminary estimate, offers hope that the Canadian economy can find its footing and resume growth. If the December preliminary estimate is accurate, real GDP will have expanded by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter and by 1.5 per cent in 2023 as a whole. Although growth remains slow, it is encouraging to note that the economy is still growing in contrast to widely held expectations of a recession. Financial markets continue to expect that rate cuts will begin in the spring and accumulate into the summer. The next rate announcement is on next Wednesday, March 6th.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in November to $66.6 billion. Excluding volatile items, sales were down 0.6 per cent month-over-month. In volume terms, retail sales decreased 0.2 per cent in November. Retail e-commerce trade fell by 1.5 per cent to $3.9 billion in November, amounting to 5.8 per cent of total retail sales. 

Sales in BC rose 0.7 per cent in November. BC retail sales are up 1.4 per cent from the same time last year. In the CMA of Vancouver, retail sales were up 1.2 per cent from last month and 3.3 per cent from November of 2022.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian housing starts rose 18 per cent to 249,255 units in December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 1 per cent from the same month last year. Single-detached housing starts fell 3 per cent from last month to 52,426 units, while multi-family and others rose 25 per cent to 196,830 units (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts jumped 58 per cent from last month to 62,458 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 8 per cent to 4,559 units while multi-family starts leaped 71 per cent to 55,329 units. Starts in the province were 8 per cent above the levels from December 2022. Starts rose from last month by 19.5k units in Vancouver, 2.2k in Victoria, and 3.8k in Kelowna while falling by 4.5k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend in BC fell by 1 per cent to 49,785 SAAR. 

For the full year of 2023, starts in areas of Canada with 10,000 or more residents declined 7 per cent to 223,513, driven by a 25 per cent decline in single-family homes. However, starts were up 8 per cent in British Columbia and 28 per cent in Vancouver from 2022.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 73,109 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in 2023, a 9.2 per cent decline from 80,506 units sold in 2022. The annual average MLS^® residential price in BC was $971,144, a 2.6 per cent decrease from $996,943 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $71 billion, an 11.5 per cent decline from 2022.

“The highest mortgage rates in over 15 years led to the slowest sales in a decade for BC,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With mortgage rates falling to start the year and the potential for Bank of Canada rate cuts on the horizon, the outlook for 2024 appears much brighter.”
 
A total of 3,596 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) systems in December 2023, an increase of 2.6 per cent from December 2022. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $965,447 a 6.5 per cent increase from $906,356 recorded in December 2022. Total sales dollar volume was $3.5 billion, a 9.3 per cent increase from the same time last year.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian employment was nearly unchanged from the prior month in December at 20.313 million. The Canadian unemployment rate also held steady at 5.8 per cent. Average hourly wages rose 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $34.45 in December, while total hours worked were up 1.7 per cent from December of last year.

Employment in BC rose 0.6 per cent to 2.84 million, while employment in Metro Vancouver rose 0.6 per cent to 1.62 million. The unemployment rate rose 0.3 points in BC to 5.6 per cent while rising in Metro Vancouver at 6.2 per cent in December.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver* is currently $1,168,700. This represents a 1.4% decrease from November 2023 and a 5.0% increase from December 2022.

Specifically:

- The benchmark price for detached homes decreased 0.9% from Nov 2023 and increased 7.7% from Dec 2022.

- The benchmark price for townhouses decreased 1.8% from Nov 2023 and increased 6.4% from Dec 2022.

- The benchmark price for apartment/condos decreased 1.5% from Oct 2023 and increased 5.6% from Dec 2022.

*Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.