Canadian seasonally-adjusted retail sales fell 1.8% to $57.0 billion in December. Declining sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores (-9.5%) and furniture and home furnishings stores (-11.3%) contributed most to the drop. The initial spread of the Omicron variant in December also drove falling sales activity. Core retail sales, which strips out gasoline and vehicle and parts sales, decreased 2.4% in December. In volume terms, sales declined 2.5%. 

In BC, seasonally-adjusted sales declined 1.4% in December. Compared to the same month last year, retail sales were up 3.3% in the province. In the Greater Vancouver region, sales declined 1.6% month-over-month and were up 7.7% year-over-year. 

In December, Canadian e-commerce sales declined 3.9% to 4.1 billion. As a result, e-commerce decreased from 6.8% of total retail sales in November to 6.5% in December. This percentage remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. 

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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 5.1% on a year-over-year basis in January, up from 4.8% in December. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose 0.9% in January (0.6% seasonally adjusted). The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 3.2% year-over-year in January. Prices rose year-over-year across all major components of the index, but prices were driven in particular by a 6.2% rise in shelter costs, the highest rate of appreciation since February 1990. Goods (+7.2%) continued to rise at a faster pace than services (+3.4%) in January. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.3% year-over-year in January, driven in part by a 4.2% increase in average rents. 

While inflation may moderate over the second half of this year, especially if gasoline prices come down from record highs and home price growth slows, we expect that inflation will still be trending well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target in 2022. To counteract this inflation, the Bank of Canada will begin raising its overnight rate at its March 2 meeting. We expect the Bank will increase its overnight rate a total of six times over the next year, bringing its key policy rate to 1.75 per cent before pausing to assess the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

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Canadian housing starts fell to 230.8k units in January at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Housing starts were down by 7.7k (3% m/m) in January (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were down from January of 2021 (26.9% y/y). Single-detached housing starts rose 8.9% in January to 78.5k, while multi-family and others dropped 8.5% to 152.2k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts were down 29.2% in January, falling to 39.4k units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 23.4% m/m to 7.2k units while multi-family starts declined 33.4% to 28.2k units. Starts in the province were 33.7% below the levels from January 2021. Starts were down by 4.4k units in Vancouver, 4.2k in Victoria, 5.2k in Kelowna, and 0.1k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend declined 4.4% to 42.3k in BC in January. 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,138 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in January 2022, a decrease of 14.7 per cent from January 2021. The average MLS^® residential price in BC was $1,042,169, a 23.5 per cent increase from $843,918 recorded in January 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $6.4 billion, a 5.3 per cent increase from the same time last year. 

“Sales activity is down compared to record levels at the start of last year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, the level of sales activity remains strong compared to the long-term average and inventory is still incredibly low. As a result, it will take quite some time to get back to healthy balance in the BC market.”

Total active listings remain near record lows with just 13,000 total listings in the province. For context, a healthy level of re-sale listings for the province is closer to 40,000 listings. As a result of this listings drought, markets all over the province are seeing significant upward pressure on prices.   

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Congratuations to my Happy Seller!

Canadian employment declined by 200,000 (-1.0%) in January following seven consecutive months of gains, according to Statistics Canada. Employment losses in January were driven by stricter public health measures implemented to control Omicron in Ontario, Quebec, and in the Maritimes during the survey reference week of January 9 to 15.

In January, youth, core-aged women, and workers in food and accommodation suffered the largest drops in employment. Part-time workers saw steeper losses (-117,000; -3.3%) relative to full-time workers (-83,000; -0.5%). In January, 10% of workers reported being absent from work due to sickness or injury. The Canadian unemployment rate rose 0.5% to 6.5% in January, while the labour force participation rate declined 0.4% to 65%. 

In BC, the economic story diverged from much of the rest of the country. Employment rose modestly (+4,200; 0.2%), remaining at the highest level since the pandemic began. The unemployment rate continued declining in January, reaching 5.1%. For the first time since the pandemic began, the unemployment rate in BC reached pre-pandemic levels, falling below the level of  February 2020. BC is now tied with Manitoba for the lowest unemployment rate among the provinces. 

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STYLISH & smart 533 s.f. 1 bed/1 bath, ground-floor condo w/LARGE 189 s.f. patio. Faces north into private & serene courtyard. Lots of 2020 updates: flooring, kitchen countertop, paint, lighting, doors, baseboards, etc. Amenities incl: gym & party room. $1.2M in CRF and LOW strata fee of $206! Great location: across from park, 3 min walk to 5.5 km Fraser river trail, 10 min walk to Olympic Oval, T & T, Shoppers, Richmond Hospital, banks, dining, etc, & easy access to airport & Vancouver. 1 parking, no locker. Rentals allowed w/restrictions & 1 cat allowed. 

The Canadian economy expanded 0.6 per cent in November on a month-over-month basis, propelled by strong growth across essentially all sectors. Canadian real GDP is now 0.2 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in December.

At its most recent meeting, the Bank of Canada noted that the slack in the Canadian economy has been largely absorbed. Growth in the economy accelerated in the fourth quarter with real GDP growth tracking at 6.4 per cent annualized. Even with an expected Omicron driven slowdown in the first quarter of 2022, the Canadian economy is clearly on a very strong growth path. With inflation elevated and the robust growth, the Bank of Canada will begin raising its overnight rate at its March 2nd meeting, continuing quarterly rate hikes until the overnight policy rate reaches 1.75 per cent. Canadian 5-year fixed rates have already risen substantially, returning to their pre-pandemic level of about 2.9 per cent.

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