Canadian real GDP grew 1.2 per cent in August, following a 3.1 per cent increase in July.  That is the fourth consecutive monthly increase in GDP following the steepest contraction of the Canadian economy on record. The overall level of economic output remains about 5 per cent below its per-pandemic level.

Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at close to 10 per cent, or about 46 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis.  From there, we anticipate a strong, albeit slower rate of growth as the economy heals and enters a “recuperation phase.”  Like the Bank of Canada, we do not expect slack in the economy to be fully absorbed until around 2023, which, given the Bank's guidance earlier this week, means that interest rates will remain historically low for quite sometime.  Those low rates will continue to provide a significant boost to an already strong BC housing market. 

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The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, though re-calibrated to target longer-term bonds and slightly scaled back from purchasing $5 billion per week in Government of Canada bonds to $4 billion per week. The Bank also reiterated forward guidance on future interests moves, committing to holding the policy rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation is sustainably trending at 2 per cent.   In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that the Canadian economy is recovering, though at a highly uneven rate, with the pandemic particularly affecting low-income workers.  Overall, the Bank expects a decline in Canadian real GDP of 5.5 per cent this year, before growing 4 per cent next year. Inflation is expected to remain below its 2 per cent target through 2022.

With the Bank committing to holding its policy rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed, and continuing its quantitative easing program of asset purchases, Canadian mortgage rates should remain at current historical lows for quite some time. Given the Bank's forward guidance on interest rates and its projection for inflation, those low rates are anticipated to remain in place until 2023, providing a significant boost to an already strong BC housing market.

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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in September year-over-year, up from the previous month's increase of 0.1%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.0%. Prices rose in six of eight components year-over-year with notable increases in shelter (1.7%), food (1.6%), and health/personal care (1.6%), while prices declined for clothing/footwear (-4.1%) and recreation (-1.2%). Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation was flat in September, averaging 1.7%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in seven provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.4% in September year-over-year, up from August's increase of 0.2%. Prices continued to rise for health/personal care (3.1%), shelter (1.6%), food (1.4%), and alcohol/tobacco/cannabis (1.3%). In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in gas (-13.4%), clothing/footwear (-3.5%), and recreation (-2.9%). 

As some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec have reinstated stricter containment measures, Canadian inflation is expected to continue to be weak. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low. 

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Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2020. 

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 11,368 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) in September 2020, an increase of 63.3 per cent from September 2019. The average MLS^® residential price in BC set a monthly record of $803,210, a 15.3 per cent increase from $696,647 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in August was $9.1 billion, an 88.3 per cent increase over 2019.

“The provincial housing market had a record-setting September,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Both total sales and average prices were the highest ever for the month of September as pent-up demand from the spring pushes into the fall.”

“Average prices are skewing higher as demand for space during the pandemic drives sales of single-detached homes,” added Ogmundson. Total provincial active listings are still down about 12 per cent year-over-year, with some markets even more under-supplied as the pandemic continues to keep listings low.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 25.1 per cent to $49.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were up 12.5 per cent to 65,023 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 11.2 per cent to $764,298.     

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Check out this very informative video of Sep's MLS market activity:

Canadian employment gained 378.2k jobs in September (2.1%, m/m), following a gain of 245.8k in August. This is the fifth consecutive month of increases, putting national employment within 719.5k of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate fell by 1.2 percentage points to 9% from the previous month. Gains in the services-producing sector were driven by accommodation/food, educational services, and information/culture/recreation, while manufacturing led the increase in the goods-producing sector. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.6% (-685k). 

Regionally, employment increased in all provinces except in New Brunswick and PEI, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec. In BC, employment grew by 54.8k (2.3%, m/m) in September, surpassing the 15.3k gain in August. The province is now at 96% of its pre-COVID February employment level. September's gain brought down BC's unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points to 8.4%. In Vancouver, employment increased by 35,000 jobs, contrasting the 2.3k jobs lost in August. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 4.2% (-106K) jobs. 

We've come a long way since the loss of 3 million jobs in April. But as the economy continues to recover and adapt to the impacts of the global pandemic, some industries will continue to face a longer path to recovery than others.  

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Canadian housing starts decreased by 20% m/m to 208,980 units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following a strong gain of almost 262,000 units in August. This is the first decline after four consecutive months of increases, which was driven by declines in the multi-unit segment in Ontario and BC. The decline was broad-based, where starts were down in 8 provinces. September's still healthy number increased the six-month average to 214,647 units SAAR.  

In BC, housing starts decreased by 25% m/m to 32,279 units SAAR in September, following a robust increase of 43,322 in August. This rounded out the third quarter average to 38,662 units SAAR. In the near term, we can expect housing activity to continue to be supported by strong demand and historically low borrowing rates. Meanwhile, the value of residential building permits was down in August by 19%. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were down by 22%.  

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

- Housing starts in Vancouver were down by 28% m/m to 21,478 units SAAR in September, following last month's healthy showing of 29,714 units SAAR. Starts were down in both multi-units (-29%) and singles (-14%). Compared to last year, housing starts were down by 14%.  

- In Victoria, housing starts were down by 15% m/m to 2,324 units SAAR. Compared to a year ago in September, housing starts were down by 61%.  

- In Kelowna, housing starts decreased by 60% m/m to 1,052 units SAAR. Starts were down by 31% in the region compared to the same time last year. 

- Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were down by 25% at 1,074 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was down by 48%.

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Home sale and new listing activity reached record levels in Metro Vancouver* in September.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,643 in September 2020, a 56.2 per cent increase from the 2,333 sales recorded in September 2019, and a 19.6 per cent increase from the 3,047 homes sold in August 2020.

Last month’s sales were 44.8 per cent above the 10-year September sales average and is the highest total on record for the month. “We've seen robust home sale and listing activity across Metro Vancouver throughout the summer months," Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair said. "This increased activity can be attributed, in part, to lower interest rates and changing housing needs during the COVID-19 pandemic."

There were 6,402 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2020. This represents a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,866 homes listed in September 2019 and a 10.1 per cent increase compared to August 2020 when 5,813 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 13,096, a 2.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2019 (13,439) and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to August 2020 (12,803).

"While the pace of new MLS® listings entering the market is increasing, the heightened demand from home buyers is keeping overall supply levels down," Gerber said. "This is creating upward pressure on home prices, which have been edging up since the spring."

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2020 is 27.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 28.3 per cent for detached homes, 36.1 per cent for townhomes, and 24.8 per cent for apartments. Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,041,300. This represents a 5.8 per cent increase over September 2019, and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to August 2020.

Sales of detached homes in September 2020 reached 1,317, a 76.8 per cent increase from the 745 detached sales recorded in September 2019. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,507,500. This represents a 7.8 per cent increase from September 2019 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to August 2020.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,596 in September 2020, a 36.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,166 sales in September 2019. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $683,500. This represents a 4.5 per cent increase from September 2019 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to August 2020.

Attached home sales in September 2020 totalled 730, a 73 per cent increase compared to the 422 sales in September 2019. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $809,900. This represents a 5.2 per cent increase from September 2019 and a 0.4 per cent increase compared to August 2020.

* Areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

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Canadian real GDP grew 3 per cent in July, following a record 6.5 per cent increase in June.  However, even after three consecutive months of strong growth, the Canadian economy remains about 6 per cent below its pre-pandemic level of output.  All 20 Canadian industrial sectors posted increases in July, with the real estate sector surpassing its pre-pandemic level of GDP.

Statistics Canada preliminary estimate for August real GDP growth is 1 per cent, which means that third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at close to 10 per cent, or about 40 per cent on a quarterly annualized basis.  Still, even that unprecedented level of growth would still leave the Canadian economy about 4 per cent below its pre-pandemic level. From there, we anticipate a strong, albeit slower rate of growth as the economy heals and enters a “recuperation phase.”

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