The Canadian economy posted blockbuster monthly growth of 0.6 per cent in January, double the consensus expectations of economists. Growth was lead by higher output in the manufacturing, natural resource extraction, and wholesale trade industries. 

January's outsized GDP number confirms the early tracking data pointing to very strong growth in the first quarter of 2017. The Canadian economy is estimated to have expanded close to 4 per cent in the first quarter of the year.  

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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI),  registered 2 per cent in the 12-months to February following a 2.1 per cent increase in January. Excluding the effect of rising gasoline prices, the CPI rose just 1.3 per cent. The Bank of Canada's new core measure of inflation, called CPI-common which it says better tracks the underlying trend in prices, was up 1.3 per cent, matching the rate of inflation in January.   In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2.3 per cent in the 12 months to February.

Inflation in Canada continues to trend near the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target, though largely due to higher gasoline prices. Trend measures of inflation that exclude often volatile energy prices continue to show muted levels of inflation. However, If the Canadian economy continues to grow at an above trend rate, as it has over the past three quarters, then we could see a pick up in inflation by the end of the year.

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Retail sales started the year strong, rising 2.2 per cent on a monthly basis in January.  That strength was broad-based with 10 of 11 retail sub-sectors reporting higher sales with the largest gains coming from motor vehicle and parts dealers.  Although we have limited information for the first quarter, very strong economic data thus far has growth in the Canadian economy tracking at close to 4 per cent to start the year. 

In BC, a robust labour market continues to fuel consumer spending with retail sales rising 2.9 per cent on a monthly basis and 6.6 per cent year-over-year in January.  Retail sales grew 6.5 per cent in 2016, the second consecutive year of 6 per cent or greater growth in retail sales. 

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A shortage of land and a growing economy fuelled a 47-per-cent surge in the value of commercial real estate sales across British Columbia’s Lower Mainland in 2016, says the head of the region’s real estate board.

Figures released Monday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver show sales involving commercial real estate reached nearly $13-billion last year compared with $8.8-billion in 2015. The report also measured a 21 per cent spike in the number of sales involving commercial real estate over the same one-year period.

“It’s really the confidence in the B.C. and Vancouver economy,” board president Dan Morrison said. “It’s no surprise that we see the same thing happen with commercial properties as has been happening for residential properties.” Residential real estate prices have skyrocketed across the Vancouver area in recent years, prompting the B.C. government to introduce a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers last summer on homes purchased by anyone who isn’t a citizen or a permanent resident of Canada.

Last week, the government announced it was tweaking the law retroactively so that foreigners who come to B.C. through the provincial nominee program won’t have to pay the tax, which also doesn’t apply to commercial property. Asked if the foreign buyers tax has affected commercial real estate sales, Morrison said it is possible speculators have redirected their investments from residential to commercial properties, but there is no data to back that up. “I would attribute it more to the economy than anything else,” Morrison said.

Land sales led last year’s growth in commercial real estate, the report says. The value of commercial land sales explode to $7.2-billion, an 80 per cent increase over $3.9-billion in 2015, the report says. “That’s the thing that’s the most scarce, especially if you’re looking for new commercial ventures down the road, you want to make sure you’ve tied up the land because that’s often the most important component,” Morrison said. The report says office and retail sales also hit record numbers, reaching $3.6-billion in 2016, 47 per cent more than $2.5-billion in 2015.

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Vancouver, BC – March 15, 2017.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,580 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February, down 31.7 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.53 billion, down 39.7 per cent from February 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $688,117, an 11.7 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“Consumer demand has returned to a more typical level over the first two months of the year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While the home sales have declined nearly 32 per cent from the extraordinary performance of a year ago, last month's activity reflected the average for the month February since the year 2000."

“The average MLS® residential price for the province was down nearly 12 per cent from a record $779,419 in February 2016. However, this change is largely the result of a decline in the proportion of provincial sales originating from the Vancouver region. Last month, 37 per cent of BC home sales occurred in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's area, compared to 44 per cent in February 2016.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 38.5 per cent to $7.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 28.5 per cent to 11,067 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 14.1 per cent to $660,943.

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Low supply continues to limit Metro Vancouver home buyers

The Canadian economy expanded at a 2.6 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 2 per cent growth.  Economic growth continues to be led higher by strong household consumption spending, though an uptick in exports was also a significant contributor. Due to a slow start to the year and disruptions caused by the Alberta wildfires,  the Canadian economy grew just 1.4 per cent overall in 2016.
 
There are clear signs of momentum in the Canadian economy, with strong hiring and economic growth over the past six months and we expect the Canadian economy will post significantly stronger growth in 2017 about 2.1 per cent.  That rate of growth should be enough to put the economy on a path toward eliminating excess slack in the economy by mid 2018, pushing inflation back to its 2 per cent target. If so, we expect the Bank of Canada may consider raising its overnight rate early next year while long-term rates and mortgage rates may creep higher in 2017.   

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The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding the target for its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that growth in the economy is improving and recent higher CPI inflation should be only temporary, reflecting increased energy costs.  The Bank stated that it is remaining attentive to significant uncertainties weighing on its outlook.

While the Canadian economy is showing signs of improving, with strong hiring and faster than expected growth in real GDP, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty over trade and tax policy in the United States.  If economic growth and inflation evolve as the Bank currently projects,  the Bank would likely be contemplating raising its overnight rate some time in early 2018.  However, given that we have no more clarity now than at the time of the Bank's previous rate decision regarding changes to trade agreements or the stance of US fiscal policy, the Bank will remain sidelined until the path forward becomes more clear.

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