March sales set an all-time record

*Note: Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.

Canadian retail sales bounced back from a disappointing December, rising 2.1 per cent in January. Sales growth was broad-based with 7 of 11 subsectors reporting higher sales.   Given strong economic data to start 2016, first quarter real GDP growth in Canada is tracking at about 1.9 per cent, a significant improvement from just 0.8 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2015.

In BC, retail sales grew 2.8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up a blistering 9 per cent compared to January 2015. The BC economy is off to a very strong start in 2016, with growth in the early months tracking at more than 3 per cent on an annualized basis.  

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

A very solid start to the year for the Canadian manufacturing sector as sales rose 2.3 per cent to $53.1 billion, the highest level on record. Sales were led higher by gains in the motor vehicle, food and motor vehicle parts sectors, which accounted for 85 per cent of growth in January.  In inflation adjusted terms, sales in January were at their highest level since July 2008, finally surpassing levels last seen before the 2008/09 recession. 

In BC, where the manufacturing sector employs approximately 170,000 people, sales rose 0.7 per cent on a monthly basis and just 0.8 per cent year-over-year.  The current slowdown in China is clearly having an impact on BC's trade and manufacturing sector, though stronger growth in the US and a low dollar should provide a boost to growth in coming months.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Vancouver, BC – March 14, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,637 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) last month, up 44.7 per cent from February of last year. This smashed the previous record of 8,157 unit sales for the month of February recorded in 1992. Total sales dollar volume was $7.51 billion in February, up 76.4 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 21.9 per cent year-over-year, to $779,419.

“Housing demand is now at a break-neck pace,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Home sales last month were not only a record for the month of February, but on a seasonally adjusted basis, demand has never been stronger in the province.”

“Downward pressure on active listings has created significant upward pressure on home prices in some regions, particularly in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley,” added Muir. “While home builders have responded with a record pace of housing starts for BC last month, the supply isn’t expected alleviate the imbalance in these markets in the near term."

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 73.6 per cent to $11.9 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 40.1 per cent to 15,468 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 23.9 per cent to $769,424.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Employment in Canada was unchanged in February as gains in part-time work offset a decline in full-time jobs. The national unemployment rate rose 0.1 points to 7.3 per cent, the highest rate of unemployment in three years. 

BC was the only province that saw job growth in February. Employment was up by 14,000 jobs and was 3 per cent higher than one year ago, the highest rate of job growth in Canada. The provincial unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6 per cent as in-migration from other provinces continues to add to the pool of individuals actively looking for work.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation is evolving as anticipated but that a weak economy will continue to dampen growth in consumer prices. Overall, the Bank judges that risks in the economy are roughly balanced, though financial vulnerabilities have increased due to falling commodity prices.

With inflation trending close to target while the economy struggles, the Bank of Canada, whose mandate is to target 2 per cent inflation over the medium run, has to strike a fairly delicate balance. Low oil prices continue to vex the Canadian economy spurring job losses in energy producing provinces while also putting downward pressure on the exchange rate, which makes the cost of imported goods from heavy machinery to fresh produce more expensive.  We expect that weak economic growth will continue in the first quarter of 2016, but the possibility of an effective fiscal stimulus, a stronger US economy and a stabilization of oil prices points to stronger growth ahead.  The door remains open for the Bank of Canada to reduce rates once more in 2016, though our expectation is that the Bank will remain on the sidelines throughout the year.